UFC 106 Buzz: Forrest & Tito a Powerful Combination
by GregS123 on Nov 19, 2009 12:31 PM EST
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PrintHere is the fan buzz preview surrounding UFC 106. While Forrest vs Tito 2 isn't a dream main event for a lot of die-hard fans, it brings together two names with strong casual fan appeal. We'll have a PPV buy prediction up in the next day or so.
Source version: http://www.tapology.com/2009/11/ufc-106-buzz-forrest-and-tito-a-powerful-combination/
When light heavyweights Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz face off Saturday night at UFC 106, they will be plugging a main event hole left by the postponement of a blockbuster heavyweight title fight between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. While those shoes are simply too big to fill entirely, both Ortiz and Griffin are reliable fan favorites that will draw strong casual viewer interest. A compelling welterweight bout between Anthony Johnson and Josh Koscheck is the co-main event. All in all, despite the injury problems that robbed the show of its biggest stars, the event should generate more publicity and attention than any UFC since August’s 101 card.Tito and Forrest are both legitimate UFC stars and are in 14th and 15th place in the latest MMA fighter buzz rankings despite their inactivity. When fighting, each has peaked as high as 5th on the rankings thus far in 2009. While the non-title rematch of their 2006 bout may not be the preferred main event for some die-hard MMA fans, a far wider net of casual fans will have this fight on their radars.
Backing up the main event is a welterweight bout between fast-rising prospect Anthony Johnson and Ultimate Fighter Season 1 cast member Josh Koscheck. Both fighters are taking the bout on short notice after injuries forced the UFC to shuffle their plans. Johnson is coming off of a demolition of Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC 104, and while Koscheck is a huge step up in competition, this weekend could prove to be a star-making turn for the 25 year old. Riding the wave of buzz from his UFC 104 bout, Johnson is currently 24th in the buzz rankings, not far behind Tito and Forrest. As for Koscheck, his current fan appeal has waned since defeating Frank Trigg at UFC 103 in September, leaving him at 92nd in the latest rankings but with the potential to shoot much higher when actively fighting.
The average buzz rating for UFC 106’s four key fighters is 36. This places the event well ahead of last weekend’s UFC 105 show from Manchester England, and directly in line with the buzz surrounding Strikeforce’s Fedor vs. Rogers card on CBS.
Tapology’s buzz rankings are a measure of fan interest and activity. Tapology uses data from Compete Inc to measure the level of internet users checking out over 800 of the biggest names in MMA. Activity is aggregated across multiple websites and represents United States fans only.
Fighter Latest Buzz Rank Peak Buzz Rank Peak Month Forrest Griffin 15 5 Aug 2009 Anthony Johnson 24 24 Oct 2009 Josh Koscheck 92 16 Feb 2009 Tito Ortiz 14 5 Apr 2009 Average 36 13
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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Buzz Ratings
What changes were made to the formula after it indicated that UFC 104 would do over 700k buys?
...Behold, a pale horse. The man that sat upon it was Wieters, and hell followed with him.
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
well, the buzz ratings alone don’t have to be used as a pay per view prediction. and the calculation of the buzz numbers themselves is unchanged. those numbers are solid and we feel really confident about them.
the question is, can the buzz ratings be used to predict PPV buys, or is it not a good predictor at all? we will be trying again for UFC106 and see how it does.
your mentioning a formula is dead on. it is literally an equation that is changing. it’s a line, y = mx + b
when you feed it another historical data point, such as UFC 104 did 475K, that makes the above formula change a little bit, and hopefully get more accurate. more low numbers like UFC 102,103,104 to counter the high numbers like UFC 100,101.
www.tapology.com | twitter @tapology
So there was no buzz data tracked back to earlier shows to see how the formula might play out?
I can understand that. I guess it’s a time-sensitive thing. I just think that developing formulas to predict buy rates is interesting, so I’m trying to understand your process a little better. “Buzz” doesn’t really resonate with me. I mean, I get that it has to deal with how much folks are talking about fighters, searching for fighters, things like that, but:
A. I don’t know if the actual “buzz” level is truly quantifiable
B. I’m not sure that there’s a direct relationship between buzz and PPV buys.
Though, I understand that part of the experiment is to determine whether or not B is true.
...Behold, a pale horse. The man that sat upon it was Wieters, and hell followed with him.
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
I think there is some truth to predicting PPV numbers. I think, given access to all the numbers (ad dollars, historical PPV numbers, and a broad index of star value) you could come up with very accurate numbers and have information very valuable to Zuffa. Now you seem to be doing good work on a broad index of star value and this is where the work needs to be done. If I were going to lay out a competing index it would include a number of eye balls having seen a fighter, level of dynamic performances (wins, finishes, crowd level of excitement, and non-fight pub all playing factors), then adjusting the quantities to weight more recent hype more. Like Tito would be high, but not as high as a few years ago. It would make a compelling graph. Someone do what I am saying.
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