Evaluating Dan Hardy
So Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy is now the #1 contender for the UFC welterweight championship. I'm trying to figure out how this is going to work for the UFC instead of against them. Not that Hardy doesn't deserve the title show, every fighter the UFC has put against him he's beaten. Its not the who's-who, but the UFC's entire WW roster isn't either. GSP has effectively cleared much of the top talent out by beating Koshceck, Alves, and Fitch in such convincnig fashion there isn't much need for rematches and no real reason to think any of those fights would go differently. But the young fighters in the division - Paul Daley, Anthony Johnson, Carlos Condit, Dustin Hazlett, and Mike Peirce - show a bright future for the division but none are nowhere near ready for GSP or any of the top three contenders he's beaten. When you add to that the fact that the AKA menage a toia in San Jose of Fitch, Koscheck, and Mike Swick won't fight each other; thus denying the divison compelling top-tier non-title match ups to drive more interest in these fighters and in the division. And finally, more compelling fighters are with other organizations - great fighters like Jake Sheilds, Nick Diaz, Marius Zaromskis, and even Dan Hornbuckle fight outside the UFC.
When you have a division defined by a dominate champion, a huge gap between the top contenders and the young fighters, one camp refusing to fight each other, and even more talented fighters fighitng outside of the company; what you get is Dan Hardy as your #1 contender.
Not even to disrespect Hardy - beating Akihiro Gono, Rory Markham, Marcus Davis, and Mike Swick in a row is something to be proud of. All four are tough veterans, but generally mid-card guys who get top billing on free shows or fight on overseas ppvs. But it says something when the guy fighitng for the title is ranked #13 by this site's USA Today rankings. He has six losses in his career, including two to David Baron and one to Forrest Petz. Now British MMA fighters tend to have to a longer road that Americans mostly because of limited MMA camps across the pond.
But Hardy is a creation of himself as much as anyone else. He was just another British fighter last year, but with his mohawk, bandana across the face entrance, and lively mouth Hardy has done as good a job as any fighter ever of creating interest for himself. He's done it with nobody else's help, raising the stakes and making a name for himself with his mouth and then backing it up in the cage. With a main event platform to work from, Hardy could make a fight with GSP marketable by his mouth. GSP is s unassuming and nice, he's needed a dominate personality across from him like Penn or Serra or Hughes to get excited.
The problem is, a fighter who eeks past Marcus Davis probably can't hang with Georges St-Pierre. Hardy defines the old adage of "a puncher's chance," and boxing will probably be the only venue he can try and hang with GSP. GSP has been TKO'd before, but that was as much of a fluke as anything else. GSP's game of grinding his oppoents into meat with takedown after takedown, topped off with ground n' pound that exhausts opponents leaving them for easy pickings on the feet is a combination nobody can match right now in MMA. Hardy's career this far has show no sign that he can deal with any of this. He did look good agaisnt Swick, but Quick did get some shots in there. Hardy has an iron chin, but GSP's striking is as good as anyone in the welterweight division, and its even stronger because he drains opponents of their will with his takedowns and smothering offense. To win, Hardy will have to catch Serra's lightining in a bottle, using head movement and boxing early in each round to beat St-Pierre because he won't be able to stop GSP from taking this fight to the ground.
I like Dan Hardy as a fighter and as an MMA character, and the build-up to this figher will probably be more interesting than the actual fight. Hardy has already said that he's a "fighter" and GSP is an "athlete" and zings like that will fuel interest and the build up. But its a sad state of affairs for the UFC welterweight division, headline by perhaps its one true crossover superstar at the peak of his abilities, that Dan Hardy is the number one contender.
Sadly, this fight won't be close unless Hardy catches him with his sound and fearsome boxing. But GSP doesn't get caught anymore.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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15 comments
Comments
I don't think that Hardy is ready for GSP, either
but consider the context of each of his wins. Gono was on a roll at the time, 4-1 in his last 5, with PRIDE wins over Lombard and Mousasi, as well as a very slick armbar over McRory. In his UFC debut, Hardy edged a very crafty and capable veteran in Gono. He easily KO’d Markham, who was riding the crest of his sick head kick knockout win. He outstruck and landed the much more damage blows against Marcus Davis, whom he was a healthy underdog against. And now he just comprehensively outstruck a top 5/10 WW in Swick. Hardy is easily a top 10 WW now.
Who knows? Maybe Hardy’s slick counter striking game will be the answer to GSP’s full frontal, comprehensive, adrenaline injected offensive onslaught. The Outlaw will enjoy a slight reach advantage, and has good power/ hand speed. He also displayed improved wrestling/ takedown defense against Swick (who admittedly isn’t a wrestling virtuoso), although Davis was able to take him down consistently.
I agree with the lightning in a bottle statement to some extent, but the thing that Serra had going for him was that GSP came into that fight with the completely wrong mindset. I think he believed he would run roughshod over Serra, and he seems to have learned from that mistake. Serra had the element of surprise as well, Georges likely came in thinking that he would soundly outstrike him using his dynamic kickboxing, but Serra came in with good boxing, good movement, and good power. Hardy, however, won’t have that mental lapse again.
I fully expect Georges to dominate Hardy, and believe that he’ll probably sub him or stop him with strikes, but Hardy has a chin, and is a tough dude, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to last the distance. I see it playing out similar to GSP/ Alves, but I think St. Pierre will be able to mount more offense and will score with the takedowns with much more ease.
Hardy is the best available option though.
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by ElliotMatheny on Nov 17, 2009 2:12 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Beautifuly written.
"You guys are jerking eachother off with some pseudo deep bullshit." - Kid Nate
by kyfm621 on Nov 17, 2009 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy is a fine option
I wish their was a great welterweight option out there, but he’s still as good an option as anyone available at welterweight inside or outside the UFC. Hardy has excellent striking and chin which gives him the proverbial punchers chance, which is something a lot of the wrestling/grappler type guys (Fitch, Kos, Shields) don’t have.
Granted if we need to wait for a TUF to see this fight I’ll be furious given GSPs already long layoff.
by SES 84 on Nov 17, 2009 7:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hardy is turning out to be a whole lot better than anyone expected. His biggest strength is that he’s simply a very game fighter and looks 100% confident in the cage. I’m now a fan.
However, he doesn’t have the takedown defense or guard to withstand GSP’s brutal wrestling and top game.
by MMAEruption on Nov 17, 2009 9:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
nobody in the division so far has the wrestling to deal with GSP…so why not give hardy a shot. he’s on a roll, he proving that he is a damn good fighter, he’s scrappy and marketable.
in all reality alves is a better striker than hardy and has excellent take down defense but was still not able to keep gsp off him. so hardy is as dangerous as anyone else left at this point. plus, unlike alves, he has a slight height/reach advantage over gsp which may help create an opening in the striking department.
the rest of the pack that hasnt fought gsp yet is either unproven yet or not on any type of roll. rumble johnson has beat b level guys at best so far, hazlette coming off a long lay off, davis lost to hardy, kampmann just lost to daley, hardy has the better ground game than daley, and condit just lost to kampmann and then eeked by ellenburger.
by fightfan531 on Nov 17, 2009 10:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Rumble makes weight and beats Koscheck, he's totally getting the next title shot.
KOs scrubs, beats one noteworthy opponent, market a new challenge that GSP hasn’t seen before (GIANT BLACK MAN!)… it’s an easy sell.
By the time that’s over Paul Daley will have emerged, Jon Fitch will earn a rematch, or GSP will tell the whole division he’s not impressed with their respective performances and move up to MW.
by pdl on Nov 17, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really like Hardy a lot, but as everyone has already said, the only things he has going for him is his reach, and power. His kicking game is quite good as well, but he probably won’t do much with it against GSP, as it leaves him more open to the takedown (not that GSP really even needs an opening). Another problem is that those hard hooks he counters guys with come with a pretty flat footed stance. He sits on his punches a bit, to get more drive on them, but Georges will duck them and drive right through. I expect to see some “flying” takedowns in this one, and I don’t think Hardy will be able to survive the full five. Hardy’s been proving people wrong about him consistently, so I think he will have his confidence at an all-time high going into this, but unless he absolutely rocks Georges in the first round, this one’s all GSP again.
So…puncher’s chance, and the very slim possibility that he’ll be able to sucker GSP into kickboxing with him with comments that Georges is an athlete, not a fighter, and that Georges is scared of his power, etc. I expect that to be the tack he takes in trying to get under Georges skin a bit. But even Hardy must realize Georges isn’t going to fall for that kind of thing. Georges will probably even agree the Hardy’s too good on his feet, give him all kind of compliments, build him up, and then destroy him in 3 or 4 rounds. Hopefully, Georges finds a “safe” opportunity to finish the fight with a sub, or KO, once Hardy’s been softened up.
by Kwisatz Haderach on Nov 17, 2009 11:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Unless Hardy catches GSP in the opening exchange, it’s over. He doesn’t have the ground game to stop GSP, and all we heard before the Alves fight was about how even heavyweights had problems taking Alves down, and GSP did it at will.
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by Leland Roling on Nov 17, 2009 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know the difference in reach between Hardy and Alves if any? Alves reach looked tiny when he fought GSP and I do not know if Hardy’s is any better but if it is, he stands a way better chance than Alves did.
by StevenGiles on Nov 17, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
74 inches for Hardy, 70 for Alves. GSP has 76 inches, so he’ll still have a slight advantage. Yet another reason for his dominance. I think Rumble’s got him beat in that category though. And I really hope he takes out Kos and gets a shot before too long.
by Kwisatz Haderach on Nov 17, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
menage a toia
I believe you mean, menage a trois…
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by Robert Downey Sr. on Nov 17, 2009 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuXdhow3uqQ
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by AJB on Nov 18, 2009 7:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy is a tough dude and I mean no disrespect but GSP is going to f-ing eat him. GSP is in my opinion the best fighter alive, yet I have little interest in seeing this fight because I have no doubt about the outcome. We will see how he does against Kos but I think Anthony Johnson is going to be the next person who might actually challenge GSP.
by attgnp on Nov 17, 2009 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Johnson beats Koscheck I’d rather see him get a crack at GSP before Hardy. Johnson brings size, wrestling and striking power to the table against GSP. He’s much more equipped than Dan Hardy to give GSP a run for his money.
by Niles on Nov 17, 2009 5:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's a good point
But I think Rumble should only be ahead of Hardy in line if he wins impressively, more so than Hardy was. I have a feeling that the Koscheck fight will say alot about both Kos and Rumble.
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'09 is the year of the FW's.
by ElliotMatheny on Nov 17, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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