Gambling Spotlight: UFC 105

UFL football. The film 2012.  Wanda Sykes's new talk show.

*Rips open an envelope.*

What are three things that America anticipates more than UFC 105?

We'll have to temper the Fedor talk just a bit over the next couple days because the UFC rudely wants to put on a show in Euroland.  Fortunately for you, with three competitive matches atop of the card, there's potential money to be made.

It's well past midnight and Randy Couture's prince is nowhere to be found.  Time heals all wounds, but, at 46, those wounds still take their toll.

The idea that Randy Couture can fight until fifty is a lovely fantasy to believe in.  In fact, I don't completely doubt that he can keep his body in fighting shape for the next five years.  However, there's a big difference between being in fighting shape and successfully competing with the upper echelon in the sport.  And while who the "real" Brandon Vera is is still up in the air to an extent, there's no denying he's part of that elite crop at the top.

As a matter of styles, a peak Couture would present a huge problem for Vera.  Without reliable and intimidating knockout power, it would be difficult to grind out a decision against "the Natural".  Couture would do what he does best - initiate the clinch, smother along the fence, and work his ground 'n' pound game.

Present day, however, Vera will have a much better chance at ending this fight.  He'll have an advantage in size and speed over Couture, who's also been rocked or knocked down four times in his last two fights.

I picture this fight spent mostly at distance.  Couture will work for takedowns, but Vera will be able to maintain space.  If Randy does grab him, Vera will make him work for the takedown and should be able to return to his feet often.  And in a straight kickboxing match, Randy can't hang with a more dynamic, technical and athletic striker like Vera.

I think the days of Randy Couture beating top flight competition are over.  Only Brandon Vera can beat Brandon Vera in this fight (which is a legitimate possibility).  I like a multi-unit play on Vera at anything near +100, though I don't expect a complete walkover.  Vera should be able to handle Couture, however, so long as he doesn't let the idea of fighting RANDY COUTURE get in his head.

I'll start with this: I don't like Mike Swick.  It's a bad gambling leak to let your personal feelings get in the way of objectively analyzing a fight, but whatever.  And to be fair, I did bet on Swick in his last fight against Ben Saunders.

I can't even explain why I "hate" him.  ("Hate" being a strong word.  I don't have anything against him personally.)  In any case, it should be put out there.

So, with that in mind, it's hard for me to call this fight.  In my mind, Swick is the better overall fighter.  But that doesn't stop the image of Hardy blasting his head off from running through my mind.

The fact that it should be a competitive fight makes it that much harder to handicap.  And the last time I bet against Swick in a close fight with a chunk of my heart riding on the bet, he went out and beat Marcus Davis in a one-sided decision.

As a result, I'm going to sit this one out.  But I will say this: I do like Hardy past +200.  I don't know if it's the fact that Hardy's unknown and Swick's one of the better known guys in the sport, but I don't think Hardy should be a two-to-one dog here.  He matches up well with Swick physically, and should be able to go toe-to-toe with him standing.  My big worry is that Swick, coming from an elite camp, has a better overall game.

Out of the three close featured bouts on the main card, this one intrigues me the most.  Both guys have had to deal with setbacks over the last couple years - Kang getting KO'd by Akiyama, subbed by Mousasi and Belcher; Bisping dropping a close decision to Rashad Evans and having his face melted off by Dan Henderson.

In addition, their styles clash in a very interesting way.  Kang is at his best with his top game ground 'n' pound and submission work.  On the other hand, Bisping is among the best at using BJJ to return to a vertical base.  And on the feet, Bisping should have an advantage in technique (if slight) and volume, while Kang packs more a punch than the pillow fisted Brit.

I've also heard a lot of talk that Kang will run roughshod over Bisping.  I just don't see it.  Henderson facemelting aside, Bisping is a tough, durable guy.  I feel that Kang will have the advantage in the fight with more avenues to finish (in addition to a lack of power, Bisping's never really used his ground game to threaten submission).

Still, Kang's propensity to take a mental dump makes one hesitate.  In the fight with Mousasi, he might as well have gift wrapped the triangle for Gegard.  And you could see Belcher's Johnny Cash tattoo's eyes wide open when Kang left his head wide open for a guillotine.

Take Kang for a unit, but expect a fifteen minute sweat session.