UFC 105 Business Perspective: Randy Couture and the UK Stars

UFC 105 kind of snuck up on me, and now we're just two days away from seeing Randy Couture fight on Spike TV.  Because the show is free on Spike, the UFC has done little to advertise it, and it's caught between Fedor Emelianenko's debut on network television and what was once Brock Lesnar's return date.  The three top fights are still very important for the UFC going forward, and for a free show it's very strong.

The main event fight is particularly interesting.  Randy Couture is the biggest star to ever fight in the UK, which helps explain why they are doing so well in the ticket sales department after a number of sluggish showings overseas.  Brandon Vera is probably the most dangerous 205 fighter outside of the top 10, inasmuch as he has the talent and skills to be a top fighter, but it remains to be seen whether he has the heart.

There's a palpable sense of anticipation among the MMA press and fans alike that this show will be Vera's breakout fight.  Randy's lost two in a row, people have raised questions about his chin, and Vera has a dangerous Thai striking game.  Personally, I'm conflicted on what will happen here.  Vera has the quicker path to victory, but his reluctance to pull the trigger against a guy like Krystof Soszynski makes me wonder if he'll freeze when he sees Randy on the other side of the octagon.  I also have doubts about his power at light heavyweight, as he's yet to really drop anyone at this weight class.  

Many fans know the two trained together back at the Olympic Training Center, but only Brandon Vera and a select few know how far above Vera's level Couture was in the wrestling department at that time.  Has time narrowed the gap?  We'll see Saturday.  

From a business perspective, the UFC desperately wants Couture to win this fight and extend his career, but a spectacular Vera win wouldn't be the worst thing either.  Depending on how long Machida is out with his hand injury, I would not be surprised to see the winner of this fight take on Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, with the winner of that fight facing Machida in May or June.

Michael Bisping and Dan Hardy are both fighting on this card, which is a big deal for the UFC's UK expansion plans.  There is a lot more risk than reward on the line here.  If Bisping and Hardy both get stopped, which is a real possibility, the UFC will have to completely start over with its plans to create British stars.  I have no doubt that members of the UFC UK office will be at ringside hoping and praying Dan Hardy and Michael Bisping pull off victories.