UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera Betting Odds

even? ..interesting.

i would bet, as far as the main card goes, this is the most evenly matched events put together.

Hmm…

I got couture at -120 (even though i want vera)
bigger news.. I got tito at +145

Oh my fucking god! Dennis Siver at +300!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I would score that fight 50:50 at best for Paul………….

Where did you get those odds for Siver? Bestfightodds doesn’t have Siver listed…

Not exactly on topic but anyone seen odds on Kos/Rumble?

Coming right up. Don’t trust the US v UK season talent at all.

By the way if anybody wants to calculate what their bets should be based on the odds posted and the chances you give your guy to win, go to the simultaneous Kelly bet calculator on:

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Kelly+Calculator.aspx

To tell you what your optimal bet should be. They list instructions below the calculator and it’s a must have tool…

at the Bisping Kang line. I think Bisping should be a solid favorite. Everyone seems to think he sucks since he got KO’d so bad against Hendo. Remember the guy had split decisions against Matt Hammel and Rashad Evans. Both of those 2 would be HUGE favorites against Kang. I like Kang n’all and he is a very good fighter but he also tends to choke. I, like most people, think hes an arrogant prick, but he is much better than people like to give him credit for. I would normally be rooting hard for Kang, but I cannot resist this line. Im betting huge (for me anyways) on Bisping

but his chances of powning are greatly increased if he has a goatee. if he has no facial hair, i just don’t know.

and i hate to say it, but i think couture’s going out second round

Main Card Bouts:
Randy Couture (16-10) -130 vs. Brandon Vera (14-3)
*Mike Swick (14-2) -215 vs. Dan Hardy (22-6) +175
Denis Kang (32-11-1) -130 vs. Michael Bisping (17-2) EVEN
Matt Brown (9-7) -155 vs. *James Wilks (6-2) +125
Aaron Riley (28-11-1) -205 vs. *Ross Pearson (9-3) +165

Preliminary Bouts:
*Terry Etim (13-2) -500 vs. Shannon Gugerty (12-3) +325
*John Hathaway (11-0) -170 vs. Paul Taylor (10-4-1) +140
Matt Riddle (3-0) -250 vs. *Nick Osipczak (4-0) +190
*Paul Kelly (9-1) -450 vs. Dennis Siver (14-6) +300
*Alexander Gustafsson (8-0) -160 vs. Jared Hamman (10-1) +130
*Andre Winner (9-3-1) -500 vs. Roli Delgado (6-4-1) +325

I don’t like vera much but his striking should be too much for old randy…I hope Hardy wins so much;but i dont know…i think james wilks is asleeper, but i love me some mat brown, i think wilks thai & and slick subs are too much for brown…I think “little deisel” pearson will just meat grind riley…not 100% on that fight either…Other then that i expect etim to to render and i think nick osip might beat riddle in the striking and have the ground skills to work out of the ground fighting…alex gust and jared harmman might be a brutal fight…

There are so many solid underdog picks on this card it’s hard to concentrate.

Brandon Vera is indeed overrated, but that does not mean he is a bad play here. He’s young and has a ton of potential — potential which we have seen a few times against top competition. His performance against Werdum, in my opinion, completely shattered his confidence to a point where he said ‘fuck it’, and kind of gave up, and as a result his gas tank started to look like it had a leak.

Having said that, I think at this point in his young career he has what it takes to beat a present day Randy Couture. As I mentioned in a previous post in this thread, Vera will use leg kicks and crisp striking while maintaining distance and out-pointing Randy. Hoping Vera has improved his cardio, I think he will try to finish Randy late in the second/early in the third with a burst — after spending most of the first round feeling him out.

Mike Swick is a very good play here. Hardy hasn’t really impressed me, and I think he got lucky with that KO against Rory Markham. He didn’t look that great against Davis after all his shit-talking, and he barely won the fight. Swick has faster hands, a better ground game, ridiculous cardio, and he’s coming from a much better camp. I would also give Swick a much better chance against GSP, even though he wouldn’t last two rounds with the champ. This match-up is based on convenient timing for Hardy, that’s all. He doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near a title shot, let alone in the same sentence as one.

Rampage Jackson’s performance on TUF 10 makes Michael Bisping look like a saint in comparison. If you put all the hatred aside, you’ll see that Bisping is a lot tougher and has a lot more drive than Kang. I picked Bisping against Henderson, even though everyone told me otherwise, because I actually thought he had a chance. I thought he was going to come in smart, use his reach, and strike from a distance. The problem is that Bisping looked totally deflated, physically, against Henderson. He spent too much time working on his cardio, and little time on his striking and power. I think Bisping will be a lot more relaxed in this fight, even considering his recent knockout. Denis Kang hasn’t shown me anything fantastic as of late, except for what I keep readingabout him on the internet. I don’t think Kang has a gas tank, so when Bisping takes him to the third, he will get finished.

James Wilks knocked out Frank Lesters teeth with a knee to the face. He also threatened Demarques Johnson (the HUGE favourite) in every second of his TUF finale performance. I was actually impressed by Demarques’ ability to stave off most of those sub attempted, but they eventually caught up with him.

Brown doesn’t have the submission defense necessary to stop a guy like Wilks. And heck, Brown can keep it standing if he doesn’t want to go to the mat, I think Wilks can beat him there too. The guy has crazy reach and an excellent muay thai game. I really dig Matt Brown and I’ve been rooting for him ever since his appearance on TUF, but I won’t take him here.

Ross Pearson beat Richie Whitson via submission, and Richie was supposed to be a top prospect on the US team. He’s physically stronger that Riley, and I think he has more in his arsenal. Given that Riley is the kind of guy who will stand and bang, I think Pearson is going to put his lights out. When I saw him at +190 I thought my computer had broken.

John Hathaway takes this 9 times out of 10.

Terry Etim will finish this one on the feet.

I don’t like Matthew Riddle, but he will take another boring unanimous decision. Hopefully Nick decides to stand and trade with him so we can see this fight end early.

Paul Kelly looked almost unrecognizable against Roli Delgado. He was absolutely shredded. He’s young and he’s hungry, and there is no doubt he has been training to knock out Siver.

I don’t know enough about Gustafsson and Hamman to make an educated decision here, but I’ll go with Hamman because I think he’s fought and beaten tougher opposition. Looks like Gustafsson fought mostly cans.

Andre Winner because Roli Delgado has zero muscle mass.

My gut tells me ver’a’s range , speed, and technical striking coupled with his wrestling shoud be enough to keep randy at distance long enough to win a decision.
Swick should have an advantage in all areas of the fight and will have stoppage on the brain.
I like Kang over Bisping but Bisping could easily win a split. I think Kang is giong to have to get a couple TD’s to get the win.
Brown should have the experience and ability to defend the sub attempts and overwhelm wilks with his his power onthe feet.
Ross is going to run into a grizzled, chizled and pissed off Riley. I think Riley can throw harder faster and should dictate the pace. Riley should use his experience to maintane the advantage here.
Etim is justifieable -500 and could be included in some parlays.
Riddle should have the strength and skill to keep Osc on the defensive all fight long while effectively avoiding sub attempts.
Hathaway seems to have all the physical and technical tools to keep kicking ass over fighters who aren’t particularly well rounded.
,Swick , riddle, hathaway individually and parlayed.
and a small fun parlay of brown, swick, riddle, etim, riley, hathaway (In most cases like the UFC veterens to get it done over their lesser experienced foes)
If I have to pick an upset I guess Roli could conceivably use his lenght to get a sub, but it’s more likely Siver could use his wrestling to control his fight against Kelly.
I did throw vera in some of my action but I cant say that i reccomend it.
Since i can include jones over hamill in m parlays I’m using that too just to max out the jones payday.

Upon further analysis, I’m going to be taking Couture here.