My thoughts on Machida
by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 4:40 AM EST
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Now, don't get me wrong- Lyoto Machida is a tremendous fighter. I enjoy his style thoroughly, and have since the 1'st time I saw him fight (against Kaz, which prompted me to research him/ watch his highlights). I do think Shogun beat Lyoto, but it was a competitive bout. However, some words from Joe Rogan turned out to be strangely prophetic- he regularly said that the elite strikers of LHW would be the biggest tests for Machida.
Think about Machida's hardest fights- obviously the fight w/ Rua, but thinking back- what were Lyoto's toughest fights? The BJ and Greco fights; BJ was able to back Lyoto up into the corner several times and throw combos, and landed some decent shots throughout. Greco (a world class kickboxer, with k-1 wins over guys like Sefo, Hoost, Bernardo, and Leko) gave Machida hell, and in a similar way to Shogun- he worked leg kicks in the standup, and knees to the legs in the clinch when he had Lyoto in the corner (he did, however, get worked on the ground).
Now, that's not to say that Lyoto can't beat good strikers, because that's not true. Franklin, Thiago, Soko, and Rashad are all dangerous in the striking game in their own right; however, Thiago has poor defense and is limited to brawling for the most part, Rashad is limited to his boxing and power shots, Soko throws singular power shots/ has a poor gas tank, and Franklin (while a good offensive striker) also is very hittable and can be overwhelmed (see: Andy 1 & 2, see also: Belfort). But a well rounded striker, who presents a diverse arsenal of good offensive and defensive standup techniques is the type of fighter who can beat Machida.
Obviously, Rua was able to utilize the leg kicks because of Lyoto's karate stance, but he also displayed calm under fire in the pocket during Machida's flurries, and fired back several times; he also used several takedown attempts to transition to his clinch tactics, where he tenderized Lyoto's legs with short knees. Whether Machida will be able to beat Rua in the rematch will be interesting to see, but for the most part Shogun just has to improve upon what he did in the first match (IE preventing Lyoto from using knees to the body from the Thai Plum, trying more actively to finish, finishing takedowns, etc).
The only other fighters that I think could potentially beat Machida are Banha Cane, Page, and maybe Vera or Lil Nog (who has said he would fight Lyoto if the need arose).
Thoughts? Comments? Who takes the rematch between Lyoto and Shogun?
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I think Machida might close his holes and stop being a pussy, and I think Shogun could be overaggressive in this. The loser usually seems to come back and win after close fights like this (Machida being the loser in this example, actual results aside)
The path to my fixed purpose is laid with iron rails, whereon my soul is grooved to run. Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering BROCKLESNAR; to the last I grapple with thee.
Machida does have a tendency to be too risk averse.
He could have taken a few more risks when he was working Shogun to at least clearly win the round, if not finish the fight. Basically he needs to stop being so risk averse and take chances. He can’t hang back and wait for the perfect chance to finish like he’s he did with Rashad.
"an excellent example of why most MMA "journalism" is a joke. Pseudonyms like "toxic" and shitty writing like that dopey article"--- Joe Rogan.
?
I’m sure he focused on the last fight just fine. Nowhere have I heard that he had a bad camp, suffered from any injuries, etc.
I agree that Lyoto will have a bit to work with as far as auto correcting, but the problem lies in Machida’s Karate stance- that leg is just right there asking to get kicked, and without his stance, is Machida really a spectacular fighter any more? Or just a good striker w/ solid takedown defense/ takedowns and good Jits?
It’ll be interesting to see who takes this, but I think the notion that the loser wins the rematch is absurd. Page dusted Chuck in the rematch. Chuck annihilated Babalu in their second outing. Mike Brown dominated Faber. All in all, I think it’s relatively even, but still- i’m leaning towards Shogun. I had it at like 60-40 Machida before the fight, now I have it at around 55-45 Rua.
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by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
He did say that the attention from being the champ was a new thing
He never came out and said it, but I think it got to him. He mentioned how he couldn’t even train at his usual gym, because people were always around
That's weak
he should be able to handle a little media attention. It’s the fighter’s responsibility to put his/ her foot down, and sort out his priorities. And priority #1 should’ve been to get a proper training camp.
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by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Don 't agree
Yes, he SHOULD be able to do that, but it’s not uncommon for this to happen, and when a large portion of new title holders all say the same thing, I’d be hesitant to assume it’s as easy as you seem to think.
I think the notion that the loser wins the rematch is absurd
He said Machida would win, not Rua.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
We're talking about
the ACTUAL winner. We all know who won that fight, that’s not even the issue here.
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by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Which is Lyoto Machida. Rua looked damn good in losing, but he still lost.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
A win on paper
means nothing to me, especially when 1 of the judges (Peoples) has said straight up that he doesn’t value leg kicks.
Shogun did not lose that fight.
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by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
So are you OK
with me thinking BJ beat GSP in their first fight?
Completely
That was a close enough fight that it’s really a pickem. I tend to think that GSP edged it out, but BJ marked Georges up in that 1’st round, that’s for sure
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by ElliotMatheny on Nov 12, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Thank you for being candid.
Not much of that left here at BE.
McNeil said in MMA Live that Lyoto had hand injury before the fight.
by dancingChicken on Nov 11, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
So
his ‘injured’ hand prevented him from being able to avoid/ check leg kicks?
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'09 is the year of the FW's.
by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
You didn’t hear about his injury (me neither), so I updated you.
…Be easy on me, I’m fragile…
by dancingChicken on Nov 11, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Haha
alright, my bad. I was in defense mode.
That could be legit tho, who knows. Because Lyoto definitely seemed gunshy for the entire fight
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by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
I think the rematch is truly a tossup
Like you said, Rua has the tools to beat him. However coming out of that fight the things that Lyoto did wrong were much more obvious and he has a great chance to fix those things. I really think if Vera gets it together he has the best tools to bring Lyoto down. Whether or not Vera can get things together is a different story.
I agree to some extent
but there are definitely some things Shogun has to work on himself. And in my mind, Shogun has the upper hand in that respect- while he should work on his offensive wrestling and keep sharpening his striking, and possibly adding some lean muscle to his frame in the meantime to put more power into his punches. The thing is, those are things that are relatively easy to identify and improve upon.
Machida, however, has to completely retool his game in order to beat Shogun. His karate stance utterly failed him, leaving his lead leg out to get chopped to bits. His in and out, come in with a flurry when the opponent is off- balance strategy proved ineffective. And to be honest, his only real success came from the Thai clinch (surprisingly enough), when he could deliver knees to the body. He also might be well served to get Shogun on his back- Machida has very good takedowns, and a good ground game.
I’m leaning towards Shogun in the rematch, but it’ll be exciting to see what happens.
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'09 is the year of the FW's.
by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know enough about karate
To say whether or not Lyoto can find a way to protect his lead leg without completely changing his stance. I do agree that if it comes to that he probably won’t be able to change his stance. I don’t see how Shogun will ever be able to take Machida down. That fight just showed me that Machida’s balance is ridiculous and that his clinch work may really be his strength. It must be the sumo. I really think Shogun’s best bet is to just sharpen his striking and use a similar strategy and hope he executes it even better. Its going to be a great fight. Probably the upcoming fight I am most excited for.
I don't think Rampage has much of a chance to beat Machida
While a strategy is now there to beat Machida thanks to Rua, it doesn’t mean that every top Light heavyweight will have the tools to utilize them. Rampage, for example, hardly kicks and does NOT defend kicks well. I would use the GSP vs Penn II fight as an example of this. Yes, GSP made a blueprint to beat BJ Penn, but when Kenny Florian tried that same blueprint (and even though he denies it, it is so obvious that Kenny was using the GSP blueprint), Florian failed. The point is that even though the blueprint is out there, it doesn’t mean that EVERY fighter can follow it and has the tools to utilize it.
As far as a rematch between Machida vs Rua is concerned, Rua lost the element of surprise. His tactic against Machida won’t be fresh anymore, and there will now have video footage out there for Machida and his camp to possibly do something about it.
I disagree
the thing about Page is, if he can exercise patience, and if he can learn HOW TO CHECK A KICK, then he very well could beat Machida. Watch the fight- several times Shogun was able to draw Machida in with one of his flurries, stay in the pocket, slip punches and counter. Page has some of the best rolling counters in the game, and if he could keep pressure on Lyoto while not over committing, then I could see him landing a big shot, and I don’t care how good your chin is- unless you’re Hendo, a hook from Page is gonna put you down.
And I don’t think there’s much of an ‘element of surprise’, to be honest, it’s Lyoto that will have to find some kind of way around getting kicked to death and countered. Machida might be looking to take this fight down, though, and I think on the flip side, Shogun needs to work his wrestling tons so that he can perhaps finish some of those takedowns, and work his submission/ ground striking.
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'09 is the year of the FW's.
by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The element of surprise is from the fact that Shogun has never fought the way that he did against Machida, and there was no video of it in any of his previous fights. It really came as a surprise to the audience in the way that Shogun fought Machida, and it shows if you simply look at fan, pundit, and critic critique of Shogun before the fight. Most felt that Shogun’s usual aggressiveness as he has shown in previous fights would be his downfall, but obviously that was not the case and he fought a totally different, and unexpected type of fight.
Telling a fighter to be patient and to start checking kicks is asking for A LOT. Yes, Page does have some of the best counters in the game, but they are punch counters and not kick counters which changes the range of the strike. While it is definitely not impossible for Rampage to win, I feel that Machida’s ability is getting underestimated as well. Like GSP vs Penn, just because the fighter was exposed does not mean that every fighter will be able to emulate that same strategy.
Good points
but I think that Shogun’s fight w/ Chuck was telling. He fought a very intelligent, patient, but active fight against Chuck, and he performed similarly against Machida.
I personally had the fight at like 60/40 for Machida beforehand, but I definitely felt as though Shogun was a very game opponent.
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'09 is the year of the FW's.
by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
Does anyone remember after Machida beat Rashad, we were all sitting around talking trying to imagine a style that would could possibly beat Machida. I was definately one of those people.
It seems so obvious now. Im not quite sure what everyone was thining.
Seriously
He seemed invincible. Shogun wasn’t kidding when he said that after the fight, everyone would say- ‘Oh, that’s how you beat Machida’.
The only problem is that you have to have the skillset to be able to replicate that. Same as the BJ situation- GSP utterly dominated him, and it seemed like the blueprint to beat him. However, as Kenny Florian showed, it’s not like every fighter (or ANY fighter, for that matter) can replicate that kind of gameplan.
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'09 is the year of the FW's.
by ElliotMatheny on Nov 11, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
SMall difference, GSP showed how you beat down Penn, Shogun showed how you make Lyoto look human.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
Very true
different circumstances, but similar parallel
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA. Xtreme Couture FTMFW.
'09 is the year of the FW's.
by ElliotMatheny on Nov 12, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
im guilty as well
after Machida destroyed Evans, nobody, i mean nobody thought that Machida would be beaten on standup. Then Shogun showed how it could be done, with patience.
Its not very clear who would win the rematch, too many questions and variables.
Is Shogun and/or Machida going to be more aggresive?
Is Shogun going to apply the same tactics?
Whose hungrier?
I am. I think. I will. - Ayn Rand
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