The Ratings Expectations Game for Strikeforce
by Michael Rome on Nov 1, 2009 8:00 PM EST
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56 comments
On November 7, Strikeforce will present the most important show in the history of the promotion, and its success hinges on whether or not a few hundred thousand viewers decide that watching a guy hyped as the greatest fighter in the world is worth their time on Saturday night.
Though they will try to lower expectations publicly, CBS is looking for fairly strong numbers. They know it won't hit Kimbo Slice levels, but they are hoping to do significantly better than the July 2008 show featuring Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith. Anything below four million total viewers would be a disappointment for CBS.
Nobody really knows what Fedor will draw. His pay per view record is decidedly mixed. Affliction's buyrates were not strong enough to keep the promotion afloat, but they were the best numbers ever done outside of the UFC. It's also important to note that it is much easier to convince people to watch a new fighter for the first time on free TV than it is to convince them to pay to see a guy they've never seen before. There may be a curiosity factor that drives ratings up.
When EliteXC was successful on television, they had two main events pulling in viewers. Gina Carano set record with the viewership increases she drew, and then Kimbo followed up by breaking records of his own. On this show, there is only one fight with the prospect to be a really strong draw.
From my perspective, anything below a 2.0 is a big disappointment. Something in the mid-2's would be a strong showing, and a number above a 3.0 would be an unqualified success. If they bring in a number above a 2.5, expect CBS to order a number of additional shows.
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Does anyone have the full fight card list that will be aired on TV?
Forward Ever, Backward Never...
by Tony NJ on Nov 1, 2009 8:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The fights that will 100% be shown
Fedor v. Rogers
Mayhem Miller v. Jake Shields
Sokodjou v. Mousasi
Werdum v. Bigfoot Silva
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 1, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's weird
Because I keep forgetting that it’s on. Does that mean they aren’t doing enough to promote it? I read about the fight on here all the time and I still forget. Maybe it’s just me being forgetful but I am excited about the fights.
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by dedstrk316 on Nov 1, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And “if” Fedor loses, and that’s a big “if”, does that pretty much mean Strikeforce-M-1 will be the next name on Dana’s little cardboard gravestone?
Forward Ever, Backward Never...
by Tony NJ on Nov 1, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Actually, a BR win would be great for Strikeforce. They would have a home-grown star.
by Lynchman on Nov 1, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
^ yup
"he's the best punchy face man in the buisness"
by blubber_guard on Nov 1, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right right right...
if the show draws a 2.5 rating and the best in the world gets KO’ed in spectacular (read: not Kimbo/Petruzelli) style by an easy to promote guy? That’s going to probably help them.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 1, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Strikeforce couldn’t promote Mike Tyson vs. Muhammed Ali properly. It’s gonna be a helluva lot easier for them to build around a guy that is already seen as the best in the world.
by ufc4 on Nov 1, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus
Did SF ever sign Rogers to a contract extension? Because last I heard he had only one fight left on his deal. How much will Zuffa offer to an undefeated fighter who just KO’d Fedor? My guess is a helluva lot more than SF can afford.
by ufc4 on Nov 1, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe...
and I may be wrong.
That Brett has 2 fights left on his deal.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 2, 2009 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All Strikeforce needs is another fight on the contract for Brett , IF he beats Fedor his next fight will be an immediate re-match .
And lets see Brett beat Fedor twice …hell lets him beat Fedor once :)
by JoelMan on Nov 2, 2009 6:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
By who?
Hardcore fans?
We’re a fickle and flighty minority. Our standards of “best in the world” mean nothing to the outside world, three out of the four most watched MMA matches have Kimbo Slice in them.
by Hesperus on Nov 2, 2009 7:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So hows that working out for petruzeli? can you build an org around him? can you even sell a show around him?
If Fedor had a huge fan base then Brett Rogers would get meaningful equity from a win but if Fedor had an actual fan base affliction, bodog, pride wouldnt be out of business would it…
If Brett wins you cant sell a show around him let alone build an org around him.
by mmalogic on Nov 1, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Because Kimbo doesn't equal Fedor
You can’t build around a decent MMA fighter who beat a guy with limited skills but with huge market power. Brett Rogers if he beats Fedor WILL be considered the best fighter in the world. BR is no slouch and if he can beat Fedor, likely anyone you throw at him will go down in defeat.
You can’t do that with Seth, that’s the difference. Kimbo was made to look like the best, Fedor IS the best.
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by achengy on Nov 2, 2009 12:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it
If and its a big if Brett Rogers beats Fedor you think people are gonna have him higher than a GSP or Silva on P4P?
I’m willing to bet most people wont even consider him the #1 hw if he beats Fedor.
You make good points about the difference between Seth and Brett but the fact remains I think you would have a hard time finding someone telling you that they think Brett Rogers is the best in the world if he beats Fedor especially if they know anything about mma.
by bigdmmafan on Nov 2, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Rogers beats Fedor, then most people will just say that Fedor was exposed. Rogers won’t be the consensus #1.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Nov 2, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who the hell is ‘most people’ ? The reality is that most ranking sites are pretty much Fedor nut huggers ( well that’s an exaggeration , but the media and ranking sites really support Fedor).
Wins over Arlovski and then Fedor would be huge for Brett , would land him as number 1 or number 2 for sure.
by JoelMan on Nov 2, 2009 6:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I assumed ‘most people’ would be fairly evident: those who actually notice the fight, including hardcores. Sure it depends on how the fight goes down (Roger dispatching Fedor via flying omoplata vs. getting a single power shot in), but I wouldn’t be shocked to find that the majority of folk (which is not the same as the majority of media/ranking sites) would say that this shows that Fedor hadn’t been the true #1 before the fight.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Nov 2, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
a major problem was that EXC went away after that fight and the UFC didn’t bring him on board. There was no promotion putting on shows with Seth in the time when he was a promotable fighter.
Rogers winning makes him a much bigger star. Maybe you can’t build a promotion around him right away. But it’s a start.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 2, 2009 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is that EliteXC isn’t around, and Strikeforce is. Therefore, if Rogers does beat Fedor, then there is the potential to promote him further through more Strikeforce shows. Since EliteXC is not around, then there is no potential to further promote Petruzelli. The potential for more big and meanignful fights are there (Overeem and the winner of Werdum vs Silva), and the stage to do it on is there also and it doesn’t seem to be shutting down anytime soon, so that is the difference between Petruzelli and Rogers (even though I feel that Petruzelli has absolutely no upside despite beating Kimbo).
by chrisbboy82 on Nov 2, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
probably true
about being able to promote rogers if he wins. he’s a big, strong, mean looking dude who is actually quite humble, but if he only has 2 fights left on his contract(i scrolled down) what’s stopping the ufc from coming in and swooping rogers up soon? i wouldn’t think SF could match the ufc if they REALLY wanted him. i know dana want’s to have all the “undisputed, linear champs”(i know niether is the SF champ, but fedor is considered the real hw champ, and you gotta beat the man to be the man,ala ric flair) in his org and should rogers win, dana would throw alot of $ his way,probably mostly in a big signing bonus b/c rogers style dictated that he probably wont have a long shelf life in the ufc.
btw. does anyone know what kind of competition SF is up against SPORTSWISE sat night? we all know the hardcore internet fans will tune in to cbs and some casuals will watch spike’s main events counter, but i don’t think it will put up much of a fight to the live card that cbs has. so what other alternatives is there for fans who might be on the fence. a bigtime college football game? a nascar race? will the world series still be going on. those sports are not in direct competition with mma for the most part, but could be come sat night if someone is channelsurfing. if all they have to do is come up with a 2.5 rating, then i don’t see how they can fail. that’s not a very high bar to set considering it’s network television.
by bdw on Nov 2, 2009 1:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
World Series will probably be over by then, and the two big CFB games (OSU-Penn State and LSU-Bama) are at 3:30. The LSU-Bama game on CBS can actually be a nice lead-in if it’s down to the wire.
The biggest night games are OU-Nebraska and USC-Arizona St, neither of which has national title implications anymore.
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Robert Downey Sr. on Nov 2, 2009 3:30 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think it hurts them but not to the point of Strikeforce dead.
The problem is CBS has spent all this time saying the greatest fighter in the world in his prime in primetime and so what happens if Rogers beats him?
Would anybody recognize Brett Rogers as the greatest fighter in the world? How about in his own division?
If Rogers upsets Fedor is anybody here going to say that Brett Rogers is now the #1 heavyweight fighter in the world?
I think that is where the problem lies. If you knock off the consensus best in your division your generally become the best in your division but I think if Rogers wins he wont be considered the best at heavyweight and that is the problem.
Same with Mousasi and the non-title shot. If Sokodjou happens to beat Mousasi then it looks really bad because Mousasi lost and yet is still the champion.
Now I fully expect Fedor and Mousasi to win if not dominate but anything can happen in mma and like I said a loss for either in my opinion hurts Strikeforce’s credibility.
by bigdmmafan on Nov 1, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is CBS has spent all this time
…they haven’t really spent that much time. A 20 second spot here and there but that’s about it besides today.
by midwestbred on Nov 1, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You also have to look at it where the casual fan really has no idea who the “best in the world” really is. They don’t spend the time surfing sites such BE, mania, etc. They will presumably believe whatever CBS tells them. So IF Rogers were to win, 3 months or so from now when they promote their next CBS show a lot of casual fans will see the commercial and start “office chatter” with other casual fans, hopefully bringing in even more viewers to watch Rogers fight again under the impression he is the best in the world.
by midwestbred on Nov 1, 2009 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is
if that was true then Dana White wouldn’t care about signing Fedor. If people believed whatever they were told then Brock Lesnar would be the #1 hw in the world right now.
Plus it what hurt your overall coverage because where CBS might call him the best you would have others (ESPN and HDNET) saying no he’s not.
It is what the UFC goes through now with Lesnar and that is why the UFC has tried so hard to get Fedor.
Plus Rogers unlike Fedor would be convinced to sign with the UFC for top money so if Rogers wins the UFC can make a play for him and have a way better chance than Fedor.
by bigdmmafan on Nov 2, 2009 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
M1 would go on the tombstone, not Strikeforce.
Without Fedor, I think the expectations for Strikeforce will go way down. I’m not sure if they’ll get on CBS again, but I’m not sure that’s necessarily a bad thing.
by Phildo on Nov 1, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think it will do as great as some expect and
I dont think it will do as bad as some people expect. You have some people who think since Kimbo’s not on it, it will do bad ratings and I disagree.
But then you have the people that think because Mayhem Miller does Bully Beatdown that “the mtv crowd” will realize he’s fighting and tune in, in bundles.
I think more people will tune in because it’s free and not PPV like Affliction but I also wish they had promoted the card more. Fedor is great but so are Mousasi, Shields, Werdum.
by bigdmmafan on Nov 1, 2009 8:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know how the ticket sales are going for this event?
by mjw2e on Nov 1, 2009 8:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pretty good from what I have heard.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Nov 1, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t get any of the cheaper seats anymore. As of last Weds all that was left were the $100/$500 tickets.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 2, 2009 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Coker confirmed 85% sold already with one week of heavy promotion left. Expects a sold out arena by Saturday.
Thanks for the info.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Nov 2, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This saddens me.....
A “unqualified success” for CBS is 1/2 of what a reality show with Kimbo did on a Wednesday night.
by Dexerion on Nov 1, 2009 8:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Be great...
If CBS didn’t advertise this show 30 secs. per game
"Respond intelligently even to unintelligent treatment."
-Lao Tzu
by RoyalB on Nov 1, 2009 9:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If this show happened a year ago it would have tanked… Right now there are more mma fans out there.
I dont think it will hit Kimbo numbers but it should do better than the second elite show which was atrocious.
Here’s the problem: Strikeforce has NO MONEY to promote their fights. And there in lays the difference between a Zuffa product and “other”. Zuffa spends a shit load of money to promote the fights.
CBS doesn’t even promote “strikeforce” (the brand) with the limited advertising it does. This is a boxing promotion through and through. Let’s see how well the boxing model has been working out.
They went from around 8 ppv’s in 2008 to doing 3 ppv’s in 2009. It’s not good. If boxing didnt have all the good will and fanbase it created in the past century it would be dead.
What makes “mma” the envy of boxing promoters is the model Zuffa created.
The short term benefit is strikeforce wont go out of business so fast but long term it’s a dead end.
by mmalogic on Nov 1, 2009 9:03 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
They went from around 8 ppv’s in 2008 to doing 3 ppv’s in 2009.
This should be qualified as “major” PPV’s.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 1, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you’re right… specifically HBO ppv’s.
by mmalogic on Nov 1, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right...
I mean, those are the ones that matter. I just wanted to make sure people understood that the smaller PPV’s are still happening every now and then.
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by Brent Brookhouse on Nov 2, 2009 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who has the bigger gut? The Bear or Brett?
by MikeD32 on Nov 1, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very cool!
One of my favorite fighters at my favorite football team’s game. He makes the other guy look tiny!
by MiCe on Nov 1, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
:( he didn't arm bar the bear
"he's the best punchy face man in the buisness"
by blubber_guard on Nov 1, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
How is the best in the world...
not fighting for the championship? This is going to confuse a lot of the casuals..
by MMAWrestling on Nov 1, 2009 11:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
maybe thats their plan, just in case rogers wins. confuse people into thinking whomever wins is the best disregarding megareem entirley. lol.
by bdw on Nov 2, 2009 1:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Does no one else notice that Fedor is wearing THE sweater under that jacket?
by MMAInFeRioRiTy on Nov 2, 2009 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hopeless
I really think that this is bad for the sport. We still need to work out the kinks that obviously still remain that illegitimize the sport as in the Rua v. Machida fight. People need a score they can track and talk about just like in football.
CBS has to be given a pat on the back to have some cahones and allow this on regular TV. Fedor or Rogers could very well end up in a heap of blood. I had no idea Mayhem was fighting … that may bring in a bigger draw than we think. Mayhem is likely going to be replaced by Shields on Bully Beatdown and that might bring in the teen crowd.
Overall, we need a larger than life figure to bring MMA into every home, a GSP is perfect for that role. Good person, hard worker, comes from meager means. Unfortunately, we need a lot of GSP’s to do that and MMA isn’t ready. Mayhem kinds of fighters make us look like wrestling and Fedor, while amazingly skilled risks boredom. Your average viewer will not understand the skill that a Sambo master employs in a one punch knockout.
by b_radical on Nov 2, 2009 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You really think Fedor will win by one punch KO...
interesting, I think it’s going to be a repeat of the Tim Sylvia sparring session, err, fight. I agree that Mayhem might bring in that teen crowd but I wouldn’t count on it. Too short of an attention span for them to remember to watch.
Nonetheless, I’m still looking forward to the fights! Being a long time UFC fan, it’s nice to see the top guy fighting for free, on basic cable no less, instead of paying $24.99, oh wait a sec, that was like 3 1/2 or 4 years ago, $49.99 – $54.99 for fights (not counting the $10 for HD). This is already 10x better than UFC 105.
by nochapi on Nov 2, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I see 3 fights with a 3:1 or greater favorite in each fight, and Werdum is +165 as well. I’m excited to go and all, but let’s not go calling this the greatest card in history or anything.
by argyle on Nov 2, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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