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MMA Free Agents: Ricardo Arona Tops List of Desirable Light Heavyweight Talent

Continuing our series of articles focusing on the free agent market as well as taking a look at some of the most promising rising stars, I'll now turn the focus to the Light Heavyweight division. While probably one of the more loaded talent pools throughout the world, the division has seen some better days in terms of developing top-flight talent. Most of the best up-and-comers have been gobbled up by major organizations, but there are still some great acquisitions to be made for promotions like M-1, Strikeforce, MFC, and even the UFC.

This listing was compiled from a joint effort by myself and smoogy to better understand who's available in the free agent market for promotions to leverage. You can check out his listing of the Light Heavyweight division over at the UG, and check out previous installments of this series here: Welterweights, Middleweights

This listing contains free agent fighters only. Many fighters were left off the listing due to their contract statuses, i.e. Ryan Jimmo is signed with MFC for a lengthy contract.

Ricardo-arona-ufc_mediumRicardo Arona (14-5) tops the list of talent in the Light Heavyweight division that remains unsigned to a major MMA promotion for the time being. The RINGS and PRIDE veteran, at one time, was considered a top five fighter in the division with wins over Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, Guy Mezger, Kazushi Sakuraba, and Alistair Overeem over the span of his nine-year career. Following his upset loss to Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou at PRIDE 34, Arona left the sport to take some time off from competing only to return a little over two years later against Marvin Eastman at Bitetti Combat IV back on September 12th. Arona cruised to a decision victory over Eastman, although the win wasn't impressive by any means.

The appeal: Obviously, Arona's name and quality of competition in the past is the bigger selling point for him coming into a more established Light Heavyweight division in a major promotion and competing off the bat. His fight with Eastman probably doesn't inspire confidence that he's completely back into the swing of things, but time will ultimately help him.

The UFC has made comments about not being interested in Arona in the past, and Strikeforce should probably jump at the opportunity. His massive strength and grappling acumen could easily make him a challenger to Gegard Mousasi.

Phil-davis-2_mediumMixing some of the best free agents in the division with some relatively unknown fighters, Phil Davis (4-0) makes the list as having a tremendous amount of upside stemming from his extensive wrestling background. Davis is a four-time NCAA All-American and 2008 NCAA champion wrestler from Penn State who amassed a 116-20 collegiate record. As we all know, top notch amateur wrestlers have a knack for becoming successful in this sport, and Davis could be a fighter that a promotion could begin to build around.

Davis had managed to win his first four bouts, one of those coming at UWC 6 back in April against Terry Cohens. While his list of wins lacks formidable competition, his pedigree alone will likely garner some interest from many of the larger promotions.

The appeal: Strong, highly-credentialed wrestlers are normally gobbled up by the UFC pretty quickly, but Strikeforce could probably use a guy like Davis to bolster their light heavyweight division. Smaller regional promotions will also be in the mix as Davis does need some time to develop his striking game as well. He has natural power, but his technical deficiencies in the striking game are obviously there from being so green in the sport.

Star-divide

RaphaelMoving on to a different Davis, Raphael Davis (7-1) is a full-time firefighter in Los Angeles who has managed to become one of M-1 best light heavyweight fighters in the last year. He also holds wins over former UFC fighter Vinny Magalhaes and former MFC champion and Antonio McKee-trained Emanuel Newton. All of his wins have came within the first two rounds of his bouts, and a majority of those wins have come by way of submission.

Davis comes from primarily a wrestling background as he was a NCAA Division I All-American for Cal State-Bakersfield, and he also qualified for the 2000 Olympic Trials. A 2004 attempt to make the Olympics was hindered by a torn ACL, but he transitioned to training in jiu-jitsu from the failed attempt. He trains jiu-jitsu under sixth degree black belt Caique Elias, former Helio Gracie student, in Torrance, California

The appeal: The most interesting part about Raphael is that he started from a wrestling base and moved to high-level jiu-jitsu as well. As we all know, one of the complaints among fans is that high-level jiu-jitsu fighters have trouble gaining takedowns, but Davis has that kin. He also works with Jason Parillo to fine tune his striking game, so he may be on the verge of becoming a legitimate threat to the better competition he's bound to face. Strikeforce seems to be the best bet since he's located in California, and they could feed off local interest while allowing him to keep his day job.

200px-glover_medium Glover Teixeira (7-2) isn't a name that comes up very often these days, but his name should be considered as one of the top talents who has remained unsigned by a major MMA organization. Many fans discount him due to a loss to Ed Herman back in 2005, but Teixeira's Brazlian jiu-jitsu credentials coupled with his massive power and propensity to throw down make him easily one of the more exciting fighters who will finish a fight in the list.

After roughly a year-and-a-half long layoff, he returned to the MMA cage against Argentinian Leonardo Nascimiento at Bitetti Combat IV, winning via guillotine choke in only 3:11. While the UFC did express some level of interest back in 2008, he was ultimately not picked up by the promotion. A few more wins, and they'll likely be knocking on his door again.

The appeal: Huge knockout power, vast array of submissions, and a drive to finish fights... those are probably three things that Dana White and the UFC are wanting to see from a champion, let alone a fighter on the rise. Promotions such as Strikeforce and smaller regional promos will probably want to cash in on his style as well, but Teixeira's relationship with The Pit and Chuck Liddell could lead him to the UFC sooner rather than later.

JamalRounding out our list, Jamal Patterson (5-2) takes the final spot as a submission fighter with both striking and grappling acumen coupled with power and size. While his 5-2 record doesn't seem to indicate anything impressive, his losses come from former IFL champion and current UFC fighter Vladimir Matyushenko and former UFC fighter Reese Andy. "The Suit" as he's nicknamed, however, is the only man ever to submit Matt Horwich, a very respectable defensive jiu-jitsu fighter, and Patterson managed to do it twice, both in the first round. That should give you some sort of idea of how his power and grappling skills have meshed into a dangerous combination on the ground.

His most recent win came in very quick fashion at UWC 5 against Antwain Britt via his patented guillotine choke, but he hasn't fought since February. With a little more regularity in his fighting schedule, he should draw some interest from bigger organizations.

The appeal: He obviously has a powerful submission game that could put nearly any fighter into a precarious situation of being submitted, and he's managed to finish every opponent he's faced by submission with the exception of his two losses. His size, power, grappling ability, and striking are good enough to be tested at a higher level, and a promotion like Strikeforce could feature him within their "Challenger" series.

Rising Stars

Mario Miranda (11-0) continues to maintain his undefeated record with his most recent win coming at Alliance Fights back in August against Lorenzo Hood. He holds victories over current UFC fighter Rick Story and former UFC fighter Joe Vedepo, and he's only went to decision twice in his career. He's a four-time Brazilian Champion in both freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling and a South American champion in both forms of wrestling. He's also a very formidable Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner on the floor, and the stories surrounding him regarding sessions with the Nogueira's and other legendary BJJ fighters truly make you believe this guy could be the next major player in the Light Heavyweight or Middleweight division.

Ricardo Romero (9-1) is a prospect out of the Northeast who fights primarily in one of the hotbeds for UFC prospects in Ring of Combat. He defeated fellow prospect Costa Philippou and Greg Jackson-trained and TUF 10 contestant James McSweeney, and he's only been to decision once in his ten-fight career. The former wrestler from Rutgers has solid takedowns and ground and pound coupled with big power, landing him on the radar for bigger promotions.

Christian M'Pumbu (14-2-1) is a French prospect who has been battling it out in M-1 Challenge for the last year or two. He holds some solid wins over Marcus Vanttinen and current UFC fighter Stefan Struve while also being a guy who's taken on stiffer competition than many of the other promising prospects on our list. Pumbu has a dangerous submission ground game that will likely draw some interest from more serious promotions. The M-1/DREAM/Strikeforce alliance will probably gobble him up eventually.

Jan Blachowicz (8-2) is one of the more promising light heavyweights out of Eastern Europe who holds a key win over M-1's Christian M'Pumbu, a rising star in the light heavyweight division as well. The Polish KSW veteran has a solid jab, good reach, formidable power, and great technique from top control. He's shown a submission game more recently, and he's been able to pull off armbar submissions from the top and bottom. He isn't a high level fighter yet, but I could see M-1 or the UFC showing interest if they put on an event in the region.

Stipe Bekavac (12-3) won't be a UFC product by any means any time soon, but he does have the skill-set and style to garner some interest from promotions like DREAM, Sengoku, or M-1. The Croatian fighter has a typical power-based kickboxing background with big reach, strong leg and body kicks, and a swinging-for-the-fences mentality. He'll be good for some excitement, but he needs to gain a ground game to go along with his lengthy frame to become a real weapon.

On the Radar

Paulo Filho (18-1) would easily be one of the most sought after prospects on our list if it wasn't for his visa issues or disappearing acts. His power grappling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials make him a formidable force and a potential top five light heavyweight, but the emotional toll he's taken over the past couple of years makes it doubtful he'll last much longer in fighting.

Poai Suganuma (9-3) fell off the map after being beaten by Jared Hamman at ShoXC back in August of last year, and his loss to rising prospect and recent Strikeforce acquisition Yancy Medeiros was apparently an "oversight" by Suganuma. Nonetheless, he did manage to KO Jared Hamman in 0:15 seconds with a crushing knee in a battle before his loss in the rematch, and he participated in K-1 HERO's, Pancrase, and Icon Sport. 

Costa Phillippou (5-1) could become a very dominant light heavyweight in the future. In his first professional MMA fight, he was barely defeated by rising star Ricardo Romero via split decision. If that doesn't give you enough interest in this prospect, he rattled off five straight wins following the narrow defeat, most by TKO. He is featured in Ring of Combat, so the UFC may be keeping an eye out.

Alexandre "Cacareco" Ferreira (18-6) has been fighting since 1998 and competed in World Vale Tudo, RINGS, the IFL, and recently in Jungle Fights. His Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials have always been highly touted, and he's been one of the few who have been able to translate those skills to submission victories in this sport. He's always a dangerous competitor on the ground, and the UFC has been rumored to be interested. He's also faced some very stiff competiton over the course of his career, another huge plus.

Chris Weidman (2-0) was profiled by Sherdog.com as a promising prospect coming out of the Matt Serra and Ray Longo camp in New York. He's a four-time collegiate All-American wrestler out of Nassau Community College and Hofsta University with a heavy background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Matt Serra. He's currently a purple belt, but he's competed against some of the highest level grapplers in the world. He defeated James Brasco at the ADCC East Coast Trials to secure a spot in the tournament, but his hope to upset the field at the 2009 ADCC championship was derailed by former UFC fighter Vinny Magalhaes. Nonetheless, he's a very capable fighter who will gain some considerable experience in Ring of Combat. He has the potential to be a contestant of The Ultimate Fighter.

Veterans

Trevor Prangley (21-5) was recently cut from the MFC due to his involvement in Arena Rumble and the subsequent signing of another bout in another promotion. While the debate as to how MFC's non-exclusive contracts work is an argument for another day, Prangley still has a solid record and can fight at both middleweight and light heavyweight. He has knockout power and submission ability, but he's fairly susceptible to decision victories versus exciting barn burner battles. He'd be a guy who could win a championship and truly test the up-and-comers in a promotion like Strikeforce.

Falling into that same category, Tim Boetsch (9-3) has yet to sign with a competing promotion after giving fans some exciting performances in the Octagon in 2008. While he won't vie for a UFC title, he could be a solid acquisition for Strikeforce simply due to his style of fighting. Other UFC veterans on the free agent market include Jake O'Brien, Andre Gusmao, and Jeremy Horn.

Victor Valimaki (16-5) also remains on the free agent market. He's rattled of seven consecutive wins with stints in King of the Cage and M-1, but he has yet to be picked up by a major promotion. He's also managed to become quite the finisher as of late with six of his last seven wins all being finished inside two rounds. MFC would be the ideal place for this Canadian fighter as the Light Heavyweight division did lose its champion recently.

Cyrille Diabate (15-6-1) is beginning to produce some bigger wins as of late that should garner some interest from some of the Japanese promotions as well as Strikeforce. The former PRIDE fighter and Cage Rage veteran is mostly known for his 6'6" frame coupled with explosive kicks and knees, but he's managed to implement some elements of a jiu-jitsu game on the floor in more recent fights.

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good list

Phil Davis has King Mo like potential

Other to think about

Richard Hale 12-3-1 out of AZ RITC HW and LHW champ

Chris Bell 10-1 young and athletic out of TX

More prospects here

http://www.ultmma.com/divrankings/

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ugh...

Richard Hale has a strength of record equivalent to Jason Reinhardt with the exception of Antwain Britt. He needs to fight better competition consistently. Potential for a Challengers stint… maybe.

Jordan Smith is ranked #1 on your list, and that’s about as laughable as it gets. You have Phil Davis, Raphael Davis, Glover Teixeira, and Ricardo Romero below him.

Ryan Jimmo is signed with MFC for a lengthy contract. He isn’t a free agent, which is what the list implies. Tony Lopez might find his way into M-1 since he already did a stint with them, but their format is changing for next season… so probably not. Strikeforce Challengers, maybe.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Richard Hale also tried out for TUF 11 and made it to the second stage.

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by Venom77 on Oct 30, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And he’ll get his ass kicked on that show.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well since its so “laughable” Mario Miranda is actually a 185 pounder

glad we made you chuckle though

thanks for getting on your soap box though its cute….lol

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which is highlighted in the article.

This isn’t a soapbox discussion. I’m curious as to why Jordan Smith is so high considering his strength of record is garbage in comparison to the rest of the pool you have. It is laughable. I would like to see something more precise from that listing. I’m not bagging on the concept of ranking prospects, but come on now… Smith above those names. No.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it didn’t turn into a soapbox discussion until you used the word laughable…like your the be all end all, ..ok buddy?

Like i said the best way to compare it is the top 25 poll in college football…..sure some of these guys fights each other but not enough do

Jordan Smith is a 24 year old kid with a 9-0-1 his “strength of schedule” another BCS term for you is trash (all 9 of his wins have come by sub,, ko or tko btw) but you can’t just toss him aside because of that.

 Let the guy have a shot at some other top guys if he flames out than ok than you can dismiss him

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, it turned into a soapbox discussion when you took offense to my opinion that the ranking is “laughable”, but I can use the term “absurd”, “amusing”, “droll”, “funny”, “comical” if you like. Maybe it’s a bit harsh, but the names below him have far better wins.

I won’t toss him aside, but I’m saying ranking him lower would be the way to go.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just found it funny absurd, etc how strong your convictions were against the rankings when it the end they are ….just rankings which are opinions in the end

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So, the ranking on the site is just based solely on opinions? There is no formula to how you judge it?

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol your joking right?

I said all rankings are in the end opinions ….MMA, college football, NFL or NBA power rankings

rankings= opinion thats all

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m asking if you put any sort of formula into place like looking at strength of record, video, etc.

Obviously, all rankings have some sort of opinion or are ALL opinion, even the BCS due to some of subjective elements in the formulas.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The other very laughable rankings is Bantamweight. Jared McMahan has a terrible strength of record, absolutely terrible. And Mike Easton is below him.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

I think rating prospects from different regions is a inexact science at this point …its like arguing in college football whom would beat whom in the BCS when top teams don’t ever get a crack at each other that often

90 % of this guys will never fight each other unless they get to the big show, but if you want to make your broad assumptions in call it fact go right ahead….. glad our rankings got you to get behind your keyboard

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you were going off regional rankings, why not rank by region then? You shouldn’t want to rank by region, but you should at least accurately depict the picture of who’s better than who based on something rather than how it is now.

And the 90% comment is ridiculous. Regional promotions will bring some of those guys together.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you put way too much faith in regional promoters brining in outside talent to fight there top guy

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It wouldn’t necessarily need to be outside talent. If there are two solid fighters in the region, that’s, at least, a better test that 0-1 guys or 4-3 guys.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

true true

but a lot of these top prospects are protected by their hometown promotions plus its tough to keep a good match-up on a local level due to contract disputes, injuries, they jump at a better deal somewhere else etc.

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I understand that premise, but that’s why those guys need to go out and fight in bigger regional promotions. There are plenty of them. XFC (Miami), UWC (East Coast/Washington D.C.), Ring of Combat (Northeast), Sportfight (Northwest), Adrenaline MMA (Midwest), Shark Fights (Texas), Shine Fights (Florida), King of the Cage (Everywhere), Vendetta FC, etc.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and I understand that premise but do you think these promoters are going to spend the extra bucks to bring these guys in?

its a nice a thought but MMA prospects like the ones listed will in the end not move the meter enough to justify promoters signing them or even going out and discovering these guys

and you did not just call KOC a big regional promotion lol

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

KOTC isn’t a big regional promotion, but their cards get notice from small-time Japanese promotions that are on a bigger stage. Look at Todd Hervey. He got a fight against Gomi out of the deal.

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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I take your Todd Hervey and raise you Abel Cullum….. and yes the Brand KOTC is strong but their cards are all over the place in terms of level of talent they put on them

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, KOTC is just a name. There isn’t an actual promotion underneath it all. I believe it’s a loaned out name now that can be bought by anyone to run an event under, if you’re willing to do that.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

your correct on that it used to be a fairly strong regional promotion based in Cali but than got huge when it loaned its name out

KOTC shows in Canada, Australia even Europe I believe

due to thats its pretty disorganized trying to keep track of them all.

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by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great article as always

Some notes:

Raphael Davis tried out for TUF 11, he says (here – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzYjHBLbosA) that he advanced to the second stage.

I thought Mario Miranda has already signed with Strikeforce, but I can’t find any confirmation.

Jan Blachowicz blew his knee traing with Tomasz Drwal in San Diego in August. He’s out till at least the end of the year.

Stipe Bekavac is a great striker, but offers nothing on the ground.

As for some othere interesting fighters from Europe, watch Christian M’Pumbu, Maro Perak, Marcus Vanttinen and Hans Stringer.

Oh and Chris Wiedman fought at 193 lbs in ADCC, he’s more a middleweight

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by Venom77 on Oct 30, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I haven’t found confirmation on Miranda either, but I heard the same thing.

but he needs to gain a ground game to go along with his lengthy frame to become a real weapon.

I think this confirms Bekavac’s ground game needs work.

I actually forgot to add M’Pumbu to the damn list, adding now.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just briefly scanned the article, sorry :)

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by Venom77 on Oct 30, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Christian M’Pumbu...

signed to DREAM recently.

by CSKit on Nov 3, 2009 2:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Another thing...

I believe Costa Phillippou is now a middleweight.

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by Venom77 on Oct 30, 2009 10:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Some of these names will likely drop to Middleweight, but that doesn’t rule out that those fighters can fight at this weight class. The fact of the matter is… we could probably combine the 185 article and this one into one huge pool of fighters. I know Arona could technically fight at HW, and Prangley can go down to 185. A lot of these guys can do that.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You mentioned Hamman – any idea what his story is these days? He seemed like an obvious guy to take the next step after the 2nd Suganuma fight, but hasn’t fought since. Odd.

HeadKickLegend.com

by Fraser Coffeen on Oct 30, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He signed with the UFC.

UFC 105 against Alexander Gustaffsson.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m really interested in that fight.

"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba

by Blackout612 on Oct 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

damn that Mario Miranda

he better not do any of those leg kicks in the UFC, they don’t score points! :P

Machida is a god
I now drink my urine daily

by orcus on Oct 30, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

oops

I meant if he gets picked up by the UFC :P

Machida is a god
I now drink my urine daily

by orcus on Oct 30, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, just for anyone curious….

Miranda will probably be a MW, but he could cross between MW and LHW.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nobodys crossing between MW and LHW in the UFC If they get beat up at a higher weight and they are able to go down in weight then they will , they are not going to go back up.

by TLAoutlaw on Oct 30, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m saying he could fight at either weight class.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

-Rich Franklin…

Machida is a god
I now drink my urine daily

by orcus on Oct 31, 2009 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Birds are chirping that M’Pumbu was picked up by DREAM at almost the same time they signed Karl Amoussou. Cacareco signed contract with Shine FC http://www.tatame.com.br/2009/10/23/Cacareco-assina-e-disputa-cinturao-do-Shine so he isn’t going to UFC anytime soon but probably would be able to secure a deal in Japan or maybe even Strikeforce. As for Glover, he was rumored so many times to be in the UFC that I lost hope he’ll ever get there.

by jinsoku on Oct 30, 2009 11:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting news.

I know Cacareco was signed with Shine, but Shine doesn’t seem to be holding them exclusively. Unsure of that though. Glover was rumored to be headed to the UFC so many times, but he’s becoming more active once again. I think he might find his way there this time.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sometime in the next 3-4 months I should be able to release all the info but I’ve been doing a big study in my free time which looks at pre-major promotion success indicators. Generally the thing that indicates a guy who will likely have some degree of success (at least a .333 record in at least 3 fights in a major promotion such as the UFC, PRIDE, DREAM..etc) in a promotion like the UFC (and this is, of course, quite obvious) is a good percentage of fights finished (70% or so at 205) while avoiding being finished. Guys who are finished multiple times on the regional scene tend to not have much success. Just to look at the current top 10 at 205 (according to our rankings) performance prior to signing with a “major” promotion:

Machida – 8-0 4 finishes (50%) 0 finished
Evans – 5-0 3 finishes (60%) 0 finished
Rampage – 11-1 7 finishes (63%) 0 finished
Shogun – 4-1 4 finishes (100%) 1 finished
Forrest – 9-2 7 finishes (78%) 1 finished
A. Silva – 6-1 5 finishes (83%) 0 finished
T. Silva – 9-0 8 finishes (89%) 0 finished
Mousasi – 12-1-1 12 finishes (100%) 1 finished
Lil’ Nog – 2-0 2 finishes (100%) 0 finished
Cane – 7-0 (1 NC) 7 finishes (100%) 0 finished

Average: finish 82.3% of fights, finished 0.3 times

This is much more “surface level” than the big study I’m doing, but still an interesting thing to look at.

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com

by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 30, 2009 11:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’ve had ideas of something similar, although it would be within the framework of the FightMetric Fellowship study, and it would involve actual numbers. But… you’ll probably get to this before I get to that as I’m swamped with some other ideas as well.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...

there is a lot more to what I’m doing which is why it is taking so long…it includes weighting the wins by opponent win %…etc. In the end there will be a PVN (prospect value number) that we can use in a way like the “similarity index” used by Baseball Prospectus to look at a guy and say “at this stage in his career he is very similar to _” while stylistic matchups and the ever changing landscape of MMA do make it hard to say HOW similar people will be…it still should be a fun thing to see.

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com

by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 30, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome, can’t wait to see how that works out when compariing to how they do in the future.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...

that’ll be the real thing. Once it’s out there, keeping it updated and then tracking where people were to see if it does trend appropriately…etc.

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com

by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 30, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

seems like a ton of work..

and i have no idea how you guys plan to do that.. spreadsheet of the fight finder?

by Anton Tabuena on Oct 31, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

After reading the above discussions

I have to say, there is more to a prospect than record and opponents record. Much of it is upside. Is the guy athletic? What type of background does he have? Who is he training with? How does he look in his wins? Does he employ the skills he has learned or slap the other guy to a win. Is this a guy who has peaked or a guy who could improve a lot with a good camp?

Really… Does he pass the eye test? ie many of the TUF 10 guys dont look like they could hang in the UFC HW division by the eye test alone. They may win by a sub after getting beat up for most of the fight, but they are not athletic or fast enough to move up. Then you see guys like Shivers who could be very good (relative to the depth of the division) but lost because he is green. There are a lot of things you cant teach. BJJ and basic striking can be taught. Cardio is something you can build up.

by ryanwk628 on Oct 30, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Much of it revolves around this….

And Junk never impressed me, but I always pointed as his insanely small reach as a problem, which showed in that fight along with his bad cardio.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Leland and ultmma

The thing about rankings and prospects is that it involves around opinions. ultmma has been doing these for awhile, so its nice to see input from knowledgeable mma fans like himself and Venom77. I don’t think that insulting each other opinions and rankings is the greatest way to go about it, when you have a chance to do something special and create a great list of prospects in the future.

I’ve worked with smoogy as well in creating rosters, rankings, etc, and the willingness to work witch each other greatly benefits this en devour much more than proving who’s list is more legit.

I hope ultmma continues to contribute to these posts.

by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 30, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I really don’t understand anything you’re talking about. We had a discussion, and it ended on perfect terms.

This article isn’t a RANKING. If I could, I’d include every single guy, but I’m human and don’t want to sit in front of the PC for hours writing up blurbs on each guy. Some people aren’t mentioned, and there are only maybe one or two guys I’ve added to my list based on user input, which I like.

The problem with the argument above had to do with WHERE those guys were ranked. Sure, it’s opinion, but I can’t ask questions?

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks!

glad someone reads our stuff

Smoogy and you on the UG and LR on BE all interesting takes on the endless list of undiscovered MMA talent out there

Follow me on Twitter http://twitter.com/ultmma

by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just think saying your list or where you rank that fighter is “laughable” is not the best way to go about it. That’s all. Other than that, I enjoy these posts.

by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 30, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It was laughable, I chuckled. I don’t really care what you think as you weren’t in the conversation to begin with.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds good.

by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 30, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Religion, politics, and now MMA rankings

all quote unquote “laughable” discussions at the end of the day

Laughable is my new favorite word btw

Follow me on Twitter http://twitter.com/ultmma

by ultmma on Oct 30, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

= Laughable Out Loud

by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 30, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Except it isn’t the same as MMA Rankings. The laughable discussions on rankings are that people either subjectively, or objectively rank them.

If you want to subjectively rank Jordan Smith at #1, okay. I’ll shut up.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 30, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gotdammit man

Ima need you to stop writing articles that keep me up until 5:00 am digging for obscure fights on the internent in a drunken haze…

But still, this is a hot series of posts

We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.

by Robert Downey Sr. on Oct 31, 2009 4:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Oct 31, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought Arona looked great in the first two rounds against Eastman. I guess you have to weigh that against it being Marvin Eastman though.

by omigawda on Nov 1, 2009 7:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs


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