The Anxious Forecast for the UFC's Light Heavyweight Division
One of the topics of discussion stemming from UFC 104's main event title bout between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua focused on the positive spin that fans can take from such a controversial decision. Michael David Smith pressed the point that the immediate rematch that Dana White has proposed should allow the UFC to buy time in trying to re-establish a stable of contenders to the crown. This point was made under the assumption that if Machida had easily defeated Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in the main event, most fans would have lumped the division in with the welterweight and middleweight divisions as a division that had a huge disparity between its champion and the challengers with no fresh meat to throw up against the champion.
Looking down our own USA Today/SBNation Consensus Rankings in the Light Heavyweight division, that case could be easily made. Without Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in the mix, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, Rashad Evans, and Thiago Silva would have all been in the top five within the division, all suffering losses to the champion. Forrest Griffin's embarrassing loss to Anderson Silva has likely dropped his stock a bit until his rematch happens with Tito Ortiz at UFC 106, and the only real intriguing prospects are Luis Cane and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who will battle each other at UFC 106.
Smith suggests that the rematch will give three specific match-ups more relevance in the future: Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera at UFC 105, Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz at UFC 106, and Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva at UFC 108. Couture and Ortiz are easily two of the most popular fighters in UFC history, and both men could muster up enough buys to make a title run a viable option for Zuffa from a business standpoint. Ortiz would likely need a couple of more fights, but Couture has already been rumored to be willing to take on Lyoto Machida if he happens to defeat Brandon Vera. The case could also be made that Forrest Griffin's past win over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua could vault him into contention if Rua happens to defeat Machida in the rematch. Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva have never faced Rua, but they have been crushed by Machida. Obviously, their contention would rely on one outcome.
There are, however, a couple of problems with this progression. While I agree with MDS regarding the division needing some time to re-establish contenders and new talent, the better situation for these match-ups relies on a Mauricio "Shogun" Rua victory at UFC 108. A Lyoto Machida victory at UFC 108 only truly gives us a couple of immediate options, and those could be thwarted by losses by those competitors. Randy Couture could potentially be on his last legs in the UFC, and a Vera victory over Couture would stifle any opportunity at fighting Machida. The only hope for anything immediate would be Quinton "Rampage" Jackson returning in early 2010 for a showdown with Machida.
Image courtesy of UFC.com
One match-up that fans should keep an eye on is the rumored UFC 106 bout between former PRIDE fighter Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira and Luis Arthur Cane. It's interesting how this fight hasn't received a whole lot of mention considering Nogueira did battle Mauricio at PRIDE Critical Countdown 2005 during the Grand Prix and took him to decision, but he also hasn't fought any of the fighters in the top tier of UFC talent. While his style probably isn't ideal for fans to watch, it'd be interesting to see how a five-round war with either Machida or Rua would play out.
There is also a completely different underlying problem to all of this talk that the division has bought itself some time with the outcome at UFC 104. The division is beginning to slow down from what many consider to be a "stacked" division to one that has a lot of aging stars and not enough breakthrough talent. Constant revenue streams like Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture are either on the verge of being considered "done" in this sport, or only have a year or two left. It's time for the UFC to start building the new stars to replace PPV superstars like Liddell with guys like Machida and Rua, but at this point -- it's tough to see who will emerge from the pack to challenge competitively for the title.
Many fans would make the case that Forrest Griffin's win over Quinton "Rampage" Jackson was "flukey" or won on the basis of "Rampage" worked a horrible gameplan. Others might say that Griffin's skill level will never be on the level of a fighter like Machida. The same could be said for Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, and Rashad Evans.
The division completely breaks open with a Mauricio "Shogun" Rua win, and that'd probably be the more ideal situation for the fans and the UFC in terms of exciting match-ups. But defeating Machida in a second encounter won't be an easy task, and I'm a bit skeptical as to what the UFC will do with the division if Machida decisively beats Rua. If Couture loses to Vera, there could be a lengthy lull until either Jackson returns or someone breaks out.
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you don’t think they’ll try to sell vera as the next contender if he gets a highlight reel finish against couture (in the same way they pushed rua after he knocked out chuck)?
i’d like to see him beat a few more top level guys first, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise me.
by woooburn on Oct 29, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, they’ll try to sell him as the next contender, but will it be competitive and interesting to most fans? I don’t think it will be. I’d have to ask for another fight from Vera, to be honest.
I don’t know. The whole Couture situation is tough to swallow. At what point do casuals see his age as a factor as well? I mean, if Vera crushes him, will casual fans say… well, Vera was terrible in past performances and Couture is just simply old?
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by Leland Roling on Oct 29, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Once he stops putting up good fights.
He did better than Mir against Lesnar. He put on a barn burner against Nog. Even though he’s losing, he’s putting on good performances against good competition, which is all people really need. If anything, his age helps because the fans are just impressed he’s DOING it, and so he doesn’t get the “if he’s not elite he’s worthless” flack than younger guys on a losing streak would get.
"an excellent example of why most MMA "journalism" is a joke. Pseudonyms like "toxic" and shitty writing like that dopey article"--- Joe Rogan.
by toxic on Oct 29, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling that no matter what they do, the LHW div. will continue to be like musical chairs.
for all intents and purposes, just consider all my posts as works of satire.
by Bandaka on Oct 29, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Machida vs the blender
As you have laid out, there are 4 fights pitting potential contenders against each other in the next 2 months. Take the 4 winners and match up the two that provide the best no lose situation for a PPV title match. Machida gets a couple extra months off while the #1 contender fight plays out. All the more reason for the rematch to be Super Bowl weekend instead of the NYE (well Jan 2nd) Brock-a-palooza that every fighter with PPV points is angling to be on, but that is for the agents to decide.
Worst case you get a Machida rematch against Tito, Silva, or Evans, but if any of those guys were coming off 2 solid wins over fellow contenders they are credible in a rematch. If Vera makes it at least he beat a contender along with old Randy. (Nog’s hand speed was too fast for Randy, Vera is going to look like the Matrix against old Randy.) Two solid wins are a very effective polishing agents.
I’m not sold that Rampage coming back is much of a solution. Hand speed has become the most important attribute in the division and Rampage didn’t have a clear edge in hand speed vs. Griffin who is no George Forman much less Ali in the hand-speed department. BA Baracus will get laid out by Rua, Machida, probably Cane and Evans. Sure Rampage was faster than looping left Ax Murderer, open-jaw Jardine, and “weird” aka wide “angles” Chuck by using proper boxing/punch throwing technique. His hand-speed isn’t elite and he’s relying almost solely on his boxing of late. Boxing and clinch, ground-and-pound when offered. Machida or Rua will finish the job Forrest started on his lead leg then start shuffling.
by pwrcartel on Oct 29, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Worst case you get a Machida rematch against Tito, Silva, or Evans, but if any of those guys were coming off 2 solid wins over fellow contenders they are credible in a rematch. If Vera makes it at least he beat a contender along with old Randy. (Nog’s hand speed was too fast for Randy, Vera is going to look like the Matrix against old Randy.) Two solid wins are a very effective polishing agents.
Agreed, worst case scenario is that you’d get a couple of rematches after some solid wins. I’m just not sure how we’d lay out those matches for those fighters to pick up solid victories. Rashad defeating Silva isn’t a huge win considering Machida crushed Silva, but I’d like to see who the UFC would pit against Evans down the road. Evans vs. Ortiz rematch, which I completely forgot about, is an interesting fight. Two wins there and he could warrant a rematch.
Rampage coming back is only a solution for one fight, and you’d hope a contender would come out of the woodwork. You’ve delved into the skill contest, and I think that’s another debate. I honestly don’t think Rampage could compete with Machida, but we’re talking about the actual match-ups left. Rua defeating Machida offers a plethora of opportunities while Machida would probably lull into rematches that aren’t as compelling as the stable of match-ups Rua could command.
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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Oct 29, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When in doubt, use a season of TUF to get even more time.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Oct 29, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rampage coming back is only a solution for one fight
what happens if Thiago beats Hashad though? I don’t like Thiago but that’s a possibility. Would the Rampage fight still make sense?
Machida is a god
I now drink my urine daily
by orcus on Oct 29, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he’d probably need another fight. He did, after all, get completely destroyed by Machida, although it wasn’t for the title. It is a possibility I suppose since Thiago and Machida weren’t fighting for a title at the time.
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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Oct 29, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rashad loses to Thiago
+
Couture loses to Vera
+
Machida beats Rua in the rematch
+
Rampage and the UFC makeup
=
Machida vs Rampage in the spring
by nottheface on Oct 29, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if Machida beats Rampage, you push what? Thiago again?
Couture is out, he lost to Vera. And then Rua needs to fight someone, maybe Rashad?
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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Oct 29, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thiago takes on winner of Lil’ Nog/ Luiz while Vera takes on winner of Forest/Tito.
If Tito makes it he’s your man. Order of preference is Tito-Forest (cringe)-Lil’ Nog-Luiz-Vera-Thiago.
If Machida beats that opponent, then you schedule Bones for the beginning of 2011. Or maybe even Gegard…
by nottheface on Oct 29, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a bad progression.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Oct 29, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only really intriguing contenders?
Heard of a guy named Jon Jones, Leland?
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
by Blackout612 on Oct 29, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Give the boy some time. He’s so far away.
by hlebtasic on Oct 29, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's misinformed
And I actually misspoke; he said intriguing prospects.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
by Blackout612 on Oct 29, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually had him written in as a talking point, but I think the fight with Hamill is well below the radar in terms of a title discussion. He should emerge with a couple more fights by mid-year next year if he wins, I think.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Oct 29, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The UFC really only has to come up with maybe 2 challenger after Rua. After that they can book Jones for a title match by the end of 2010. (I’m guessing 2011 Gegard gets his shot)
by nottheface on Oct 29, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's right,
Match both winners and both losers of the Tito/Forrest & Vera/couture and you got an instant contender who is marketable for sure.
Imagine, couture vs Forrest and Vera vs Tito? Even Vera vs Forrest looks like a great fight..
On the thiago silva vs Evans fight, I say give the winner of that against Winner of LilNog/Cane..
Shogun vs Lyoto for the title, Then you just pick which of the winners of the two scenarios above gets the next title shot.
by Anton Tabuena on Oct 29, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This also solves the "lull" you mentioned about Vera beating Randy.
Evans was known as boring and unmarketable until he KOed chuck and Forrest to earn a title shot..
Can you say that beating Randy and Tito/Forrest won’t do the same for Vera? ..conversely, if Vera beats couture and loses to Forrest/Tito, that means two straight wins for those fan favorites… makes it hard for the UFC brass to deny them their shot.
by Anton Tabuena on Oct 29, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but it depends if any of those other fighters who don’t have unreal games are going to improve like Rashad. Rashad made a huge jump, can those fighters do the same?
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Oct 29, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rogerio/Cane vs. Rashad/Silva
Vera/Couture vs. Tito/Griffin
Whoever the more impressive along the way gets the first shot. Obviously Couture/Griffin would present a camp problem, though.
And if Shogun loses to Machida and Rampage comes back (if), Rampage vs. Shogun for a contender spot sometime.
"He hit like a bitch."
by SMC on Oct 29, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The good news is that once all the aforementioned scenarios play out, there will hopefully be a few guys like Bones, Bader and Gegard that are ready for their respective shots. It would also be awesome to see Pat Barry drop down and try to make a run. His ground game will always be inferior to the mid-to-upper tier grapplers, but if he can retain his power at LHW and continue to improve his sprawl, he could be a very intriguing addition to the division.
by Velcro on Oct 29, 2009 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Things start getting really hazy when you try and project past 6-9 months, there is just no way to predict with any sort of accuracy how the landscape will change when everyone has two more fights in the books. Any of the prospects could make huge leaps with a couple of impressive wins.
by Niles on Oct 29, 2009 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How about if one of the smaller HW from this season comes in a close second.
I dislike Matt Hughes. Shogun beat him like a dirty horse.
by MonkeyCHops on Oct 29, 2009 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kimbo v. Machida?
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Robert Downey Sr. on Oct 30, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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