Slow Down on Cain Velasquez and the UFC Heavyweight Title
Following his victory over Ben Rothwell, news broke that Cain Velasquez could fight for the heavyweight title in Mexico City next year. This would be a very bad idea, and I think Joe Silva and company are smart enough to avoid rushing Cain's title shot.
Cain Velasquez is a future UFC superstar. At just 6-0 he made Ben Rothwell, a man nearly thirty pounds bigger than him, look like a weak rookie. He tossed Rothwell around like a child. Given his skill at this point in his career, his background in wrestling in jiu-jitsu, his all-action fighting style, and his Latino heritage, the man is destined for stardom. Unless they blow his star early by forcing him into a position he's not ready for.
It's worth stepping back and recognizing that most UFC fans barely know who he is. This past weekend was the first time he got any sort of star reaction from a crowd. His name is on its way to becoming part of the regular vocabulary of the casual UFC fan; in a year, with 2 or 3 more victories, he will be a big star poised for his first title shot in a very marketable main event. If they give him a title shot in April, it will help draw in Mexico, but on PPV it will be worth about as much as any random heavyweight going for the title.
Cain Velasquez is young. He's not like Shane Carwin, who's already up there in age. His eventual fight with Brock Lesnar for the title, assuming Lesnar holds onto it for a while, could be a huge event. If they don't blow it too early. Giving Cain his shot now would be like giving Lyoto his shot 4 months after beating Sokoudjou. Would he have been ready? Sure. Was it the right time? No.
From a marketing perspective, it's best to avoid having to introduce fighters challenging for the title, because they just might win. Nobody's talking about it, but Shogun winning the title in a long, drawn-out decision would have been bad for business. The fans barely know Shogun. But now he has an identity. He was screwed, or so a lot of people think. Now fans will care about him, the rematch will be bigger than the first, and if he wins he'll be a star instead of another new champion the UFC has to strain to promote. It's counterintuitive, but it's how the fight business works.
They should exercise patience with Cain Velasquez. They already have a marketable contender heading toward the end of his career in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, they should spend their time building their young contenders so they actually have some new stars when the older class of stars retires. There are all sorts of options for Cain Velasquez: Mirko CroCop, Frank Mir, Junior Dos Santos, Heath Herring, and Gabriel Gonzaga would all make sense.
There's a simple trick you can do to figure out if a title shot is coming too soon from a business perspective. Think of how the UFC would market the fight in the United States if it happened. In this case, the 30 second spot in April would probably have a narrarator reading something like this: "UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar returns to the Octagon to defend his heavyweight title at UFC 113. After knocking out Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar is looking to cement his legacy as the best heavyweight fighter in the world. Standing in his way is undefeated up and coming heavyweight Cain Velasquez, who destroyed former IFL champion Ben Rothwell at UFC 104...."
You get the picture. The ad would focus completely on Lesnar, and then mention his opponent briefly at the end. And it would make sense to do it that way. Fans care about Brock at this point way more than they care about Cain. They shouldn't fight until fans care about both.
1 recs |
61 comments
| Add comment
|
Comments
Big Nog will probably get the next shot.
Keep firing Assholes!
Never trust a man with no shirt on.
by Ubernoober on Oct 28, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well put, Rome. Maybe the extra development time will allow him to “break out” with some striking power as well.
by IImastersII on Oct 28, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You missed one point
There is a thing called being to greedy. When you have a guy with his talent and growing resume, if you try to build him up with a few more softball fights, he will lose credibility. And if you give him a few more fights against upper echelon fighters in the division, you risk him losing and him dropping from contendership, losing a young prospect and a latino draw. I think you are outhinking yourself here. Maybe one more fight if Brock’s sickness keeps Cain on the shelf too long, but after that he needs to fight for the title.
by Nick Travaglini on Oct 28, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nick Travaglini: "And if you give him a few more fights against upper echelon fighters in the division, you risk him losing and him dropping from contendership, losing a young prospect and a latino draw. "
If Cain can’t defeat upper echelon fighers then he doesn’t deserve a title shot.
If Cain can’t defeat upper echelon fighters he won’t beat Brock anyway.
by polevaultking on Oct 28, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
You are missing the point
Every fighter has a risk of losing to another top echelon fighter.
There is no doubt in my mind Cain would beat most of the top echelon fighters in the UFC at least SOME of the time, but why throw away all that money on a great Latino draw on the chance that someone like Mir catches him in a Kneebar.
Better to have him fight for the title undefeated, and he can move back up through the upper echelon fighters if he loses.
This is all from a business perspective of course.
'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko
by Well Read Idiot on Oct 29, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have ZERO interest in watching Cain embarass Mirko any further.
by WestbergIDFC on Oct 28, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So...
if Mirko doesn’t retire you pay him superstar money to fight lower end guys?
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 28, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just speaking from a fan’s point of view, not a business POV. It would break my heart to see Cain toss Mirko around the cage
by WestbergIDFC on Oct 28, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d give him a big fight with another veteran rather than an up-and-comer. He deserves a big fight with Couture or a rematch with Nog, rather than using him to build the profile of a younger fighter.
by brad23 on Oct 28, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
New Promo!
BROCKLESNAR, fresh off his recent loss versus The Flu, looks to bounce back and defend his title. A challenger appears in Shane “The Engineer” Carwin, following dominating wins against Gabriel Gonzaga, Neil Wain, and Christian Wellisch. BROCKLESNAR, BROCKLESNAR, BROCKLESNAAAAAAAR!!!! Only on pay-per-view.
by rzor on Oct 28, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Neil Who???
Christian What’s-it?
Brock was right. The only one worth a damn that Shane beat was Gonzaga. So Shane is really 1-0 against REAL Fighters.
by BNTHIS on Oct 28, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even Cain says that he is still developing and needs more time in the Octagon
Velasquez is very good for someone so young, but I do think that he needs more fights to be ready to fight for the Title. I like that the UFC is putting him on co-main events to give him some much needed exposure.
Velasquez brings something new to the Heavyweight Division as well with that being amazing cardio. He is something like a GSP or Clay Guida in Heavyweight in that Cain just doesn’t stop working and just outworks his opponents to death.
by chrisbboy82 on Oct 28, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He needs more fights before the title fight just like Brock did?
by Nick Travaglini on Oct 28, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brock obviously has the advantage of being a huge name, but physically, he is much bigger than everyone else and has good wrestling and fast for his size. As far as Cain’s current abilities are concerned, he definitely has the tools and a very real possibility of beating the champion whether it be Lesnar or Carwin (of course, Cain would be an underdog).
Unfortunately, the entertainment aspect of MMA and the UFC comes into play here in that Cain needs to get known to the casual viewers as well as winning over the hardcore MMA fans in order to get PPV buys and have MMA fans excited to see him fight for a Title.
by chrisbboy82 on Oct 28, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shogun losing for the title was worth more to his brand equity than beating 20 eric shafers or even 20 Banha’s. If he won it have been worth double that as right we would have talking about the guy who finally figured him out instead of the nonsense decision.
Cain losing in a title shot is worth more for his brand equity than beating another 10 kongos.
List every star and they all have one thing in common: They were all invlolved in big fights. Lesnar is the anomaly and we know why.
Building a fighter up from an athletic perspective is fine but once a fight becomes interesting that fight should be made.
That’s how you build stars in this business. THE STARS ARE MADE INSIDE THE OCTAGON DURING VERY BIG FIGHTS.
by mmalogic on Oct 28, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If It’s competitively interesting you make the fight… you can create 20 countdowns and 50 24/7’s and it still wont produce the stars what the potentially 25 minutes in the cage can during a main event.
by mmalogic on Oct 28, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re creating a false dichotomy. I completely agree that you go with a money fight when you have it. I think it’s insane to blow a fight that could be a money fight in 6 months by doing it early when nobody cares about it yet.
CroCop-Randy, had they skipped Gonzaga, was going to do 750k buys back then. It was already a huge fight. Gonzaga really wasn’t going to add anything to it, which is why that fight was so silly. Brock-Cain will do the same number Brock vs. anyone would do. It’s not a money fight yet, so there’s no reason to blow it, ESPECIALLY when Nogueira is right there.
by Michael Rome on Oct 28, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lesnar-Velazquez in Mexico will not draw regular numbers on PPV, it combines the drawing power of Lesnar with the drawing power of a Mexican fighter fighting for the heavyweight championship. As boxing has showed us Mexican people will follow their countrymen and pay for PPV cards.
by IRodC on Oct 28, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There is no evidence they will buy MMA yet
The potential is huge obviously since they basically drive boxing ppv, but we need to see it happen first.
by SES 84 on Oct 28, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed 100%
I’d like to see Cain take on and rape both Gonzaga and Herring.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Oct 28, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gonzaga is an interesting fight for sure, and I would love to see that match-up happen.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Oct 28, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Cain would handle him just like Randy did. Good win on Cains resume.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Oct 28, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rape is illegal. Plus there isn’t a proven fanbase for man-on-man rape, staged or not. It would be terrible for PPV’s, but really good in stirring up controversy.
IMO Dana should wait until MMA is sanctioned in New York before allowing rape.
by Dooda on Oct 28, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
O_O Wow…
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Oct 28, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man-on-man rape demographic:
Bernard Hopkins
"Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity." - Bullet Tooth Tony
@deowade
by Deo Wade on Oct 28, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I LOL’d at this =-)
'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko
by Well Read Idiot on Oct 29, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the man is destined for stardom.
Agree, the pop he got when he came out and at the weigh-ins were impressive… Or was that because he was a home-town boy?
by Nick Thomas on Oct 28, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mexicans+Beer+Chente Walkin+Mexican Fighter = Gold, my friend.
I wish I could have been there for that walkout just to see how loud it was.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Oct 28, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is 5-0 in the UFC in a thin division
Its hard to deny him a shot much longer.
Also, Dos Santos is another budding star. Why have them fight and eliminate a potential near future title contender? Its not like there is an abundance of them in the HW division
by HighNoon on Oct 28, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Or try to put them on similar parallel paths so that we have 2 potential big stars, instead of having one elminate the other. You said it yourself the division is thin.
by soadtrails on Oct 28, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just gonna say
why have him face Junior Dos Santos? One of them would have to loose (personally I think it would be Cain.) You would eliminate one of them from contention for a while.
by ryanwk628 on Oct 28, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree. Plus the fight against Ben showed a glaring weakness, his power. Cain doesn’t have the power to do much to Brock. I watched Randy’s shots bounce off Brocks face like they were nothing. Surely Cain’s would have the same effect. I like two or three more big fights. Junior makes sense, etc. If he gets a loss, so be it, he hasn’t earned the title shot yet. Let him win another 2 or 3 more fights to get the shot next time. Same goes for Junior.
Trying to guide someone to a title shot while trying to protect them from losing is a slippery slope. But I’m pretty sure the UFC knows all of this. They seem to walk this line fairly well, unless they’re really hurting for a challenger.
by Dooda on Oct 28, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FWIW, it was also the right decision to get Cain into the title bout. He has the wrestling, size, power and skill set to compete with Brock right away. The only thing that worries me about Shane is his speed in comparison to the champ, but that isn’t going to change anytime soon. I was pretty confident that Shane was going to beat Cain quite badly.
by Dooda on Oct 28, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
how do you pronouce BROCKLESNARRRR
is it BROCK – LESNAR
or is it something more like BROCKLE-SNARRRRR
for some reason I keep thinking the 2nd one when I see it.
by IpullguardIRL on Oct 28, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You don’t pronounce it, you shout it.
Keep firing Assholes!
Never trust a man with no shirt on.
by Ubernoober on Oct 28, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cain is a bit one dimensional and i don’t think i’m the only one who thinks he is boring to watch. Sure you can end nobody’s but he couldn’t even finish whats the ground game congo. Also Rothwell was heading towards a decision till mazzagati saw a beer vender in the crowd he liked. Give him a good wrestler or a good bjj guy first. Brock will just give him a congo treatment he has been dishing out.
by mr. gogoplata on Oct 28, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ummmmm
your second sentance again please? Do you really think Rothwell would have made it a full 3 rounds with that kind of punishment? Yes I think it was an early stoppage, but he couldn’t have made it being a punching bag for 15 minutes, even with Cain’s lack of KO power.
by soadtrails on Oct 28, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rothwell was never an IFL champion! Roy Nelson was.
by TDITZ on Oct 28, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well he did beat Nelson in the IFL but your right he never became the champ, got to imagine that if he would have stayed in it when the title was implemented he would have become champ but can’t live on what if’s.
"Did you feel you did well against Lindland?" "
Hell no.. I wanted to break the law"
---Rampage
by TearsofaClown on Oct 28, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carwin’s getting a shot, Nog’s getting a shot, Mir’s getting knocked out by Kongo, Cigano’s a prospect himself, Randy’s a LHW now.
That basically leaves Gonzaga as an opponent. Fans are still wild for Napao for some damn reason so a win over him should be enough to make him a credible contender. I think that would be enough, unless you want him to give Mir a losing streak.
by omigawda on Oct 28, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fun trick: go log in to google, go to google trends, type in “Cain Velasquez” and then “Nogueira” to compare. Cain’s base is 94 times lower than Nogueira’s!!! He’s 4 times lower than Carwin. He’s not a name at all, not yet at least. He will be, but he’s not a Jon Fitch type who has earned his shot so thoroughly that you throw him into a title match.
by Michael Rome on Oct 28, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yes but what happens in googlespanol?
by ryanwk628 on Oct 28, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cain is a bright prospect.. I still think his strengths are Lesnar’s strengths and Lesnar would just be a bit better… Lesnar is as fast or faster than Cain..
Lesnar has the cardio to go a full 5 rounds.. I have zero doubt in my mind. Cain has looked good against 2 guys with weak wrestling backgrounds in Congo & Rothwell.. Another point that has been pointed out, his wrestling is great.. his power is not.. Rothwell was eating unprotected shots by the bunches to the face and not once was he rocked… same goes for Congo.. Sure Cain can have success the same way Randy has had success.. neither are powerful guys in terms of putting someone down and out.
But when you can’t get to your one strength and you can’t handle the power of someone with more than yourself.. you’re likely to wake up on the loosing end..
Cain wont ragdoll either Lesnar nor Carwin.. So he’ll be forced to fight a fight he hasn’t fought before.. Both Carwin and Lesnar have the power to put him down.. Cain is still suspect at this point..
8-29-09
Keith Jardine is now known as "The Dean of Antihistamine" because he is always sleeping early in fights..
by MMAuthority on Oct 28, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Throw Cain in with Herring.
If anything is going to bring the Mexican fan base into MMA, its going to be a guy with “Brown Pride” tattoo’d on his chest beating the hell out of a “Texas Crazy Horse”. ;-)
by Razreshat on Oct 28, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Jake OBrien can wrestle Herring for a full 3 rounds, Cain should have no problem with him.
by ryanwk628 on Oct 28, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Herring is quasi retired right now.
Keep firing Assholes!
Never trust a man with no shirt on.
by Ubernoober on Oct 28, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he has proven that he has absolutely no knock out power several times, especially after teeing off on Big Bens chin for 30 seconds with almost no damage. He’ll get demolished by the bigger wrestlers that will outweigh him by 40 pounds of solid muscle. The only other fight they could give him at this point would be the looser of Lesnar/Carwin, which I think he would lose or Nog, who would laugh through the entire fight as he taunts Cain with various submissions before getting board and locking one in. If they are smart they will try to cash in on his next fight as much as possible because after he loses it, his drawing power will be quickly diminished.
Then I could see them using his remaining status to build someone like Todd Duffy.
by The Engineer on Oct 28, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, he has proven that he has absolutely no knock out power several times, especially after teeing off on Big Bens chin for 30 seconds with almost no damage.
Big Ben does have one hell of a chin tho, he was taking some nasty shots and a beating from AA but kept on ticking for awhile.
"Did you feel you did well against Lindland?" "
Hell no.. I wanted to break the law"
---Rampage
by TearsofaClown on Oct 28, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“in a year, with 2 or 3 more victories, he will be a big star poised for his first title defense in a very marketable main event.”
You mean his first title shot?
by ufc4 on Oct 28, 2009 2:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
couple more fights
cains fight with kongo exposed his weakness. so on a personal level for him, im sure he wouldnt want to fight brock. He needs to be the lion and be fed some prey. Throw todd duffee, pat berry or a semi retired heath herring. I see him easily matched with mir or nog. But let him build expierence before hes lined up to fight brock. After duffee, berry and herring if he wins, line him up with carwin, nog, couture, mir. An easy headliner for cain would be junior dos santos both are on the rise, whos going to fall or let him just run through gonzaga.
by rickyg$ on Oct 28, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the UFC used to really follow this “build them up slowly” model, with the absolute best example being GSP. For St. Pierre’s first title shot he was absolutely “that guy Matt Hughes has to defeat to win back his belt.” And that fight made no real ripple at all. After the Trigg fight he could easily have had another shot, but they waited and built him up against Sherk, then waited again and built him up against Penn. The first Penn fight did wonders for him, so by the time he got his shot, it was a big deal and the fans were solidly behind him to the point that he is now one of their most popular fighters.
In all honesty, I think a lot of that changed in 2007. They waited on Diego and he lost. They waited on CroCop and he lost. They move guys into big fights a lot faster now in order to capitalize on their momentum and avoid them losing a big fight. It’s a model WEC uses well, where one win can get you a title shot. To me the only question is, is it a model for long-term health? And that I am not sure of. How much long-term popularity will a guy like Carwin have?
HeadKickLegend.com
by Fraser Coffeen on Oct 28, 2009 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, because the build em up slowly model doesn’t work…
the “push everything down and the real cream rises back up” model works.
Its all about making the best possible matchups- today.
by mmalogic on Oct 28, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever happened to Todd Duffy?
As a casual/hardcore fan it seems he came out of nowhere, smashed Tim Hague in seven seconds then dissappeared and hasn’t been mentioned since.
Or have I missed something?
by Burkey22 on Oct 29, 2009 7:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I did miss something. Hes mentioned just a few posts up. Sorry.
by Burkey22 on Oct 29, 2009 7:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 















