Shogun vs Machida Rematch: Who Wins? Why?
by mmalogic on Oct 26, 2009 7:14 PM EDT
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PrintLets discuss who wins the Rematch and Why and away from the front page and being bogged down by the latest news... but first lets look at how the fight unfolded because it's been lost in all the outrage.
Shougun:
Lost in everything was the success shogun had in out striking a guy who has never been out struck before. This was an amazing accomplishment... from creating the plan all the way to executing it.
First his plan was to use kicks... probably because they saw Machida best capitalizes against his opponents punches.
And the way he used this weapon going after the legs and body and forgetting about the head except in a counter situation where he caught Machida (once on the neck in the first round and another time during Machida's flurry in the third which were probably the 2 best punches of the fight)
He was in excellent condition. If you notice his breathing patterns in the 5th round it couldnt get any better than that.
All in all this wasnt the old shogun this was a NEW and better Shogun...
Machida:
The questions of whether Machida has a chin or not is gone. Machida has a chin. Machida's best weapon in the fight was his lunging knee and landed it over and over.
For the first time his karate stance was exploited and he paid for it.
THE REMATCH:
Machida will need to solve shoguns kicks and if that involves changing his stance will his head finally be exposed like every other fighter.
Shogun needs to come up with multiple scenarios and how he is going to react based on what Machida comes back with.
My conclusion at this point:
Judges always give close rounds to the fan favorite... going into this fight Shogun will be the fan favorite... Both guys are very durable and I believe the first 3 rounds will be very close again unless someone makes a mistake. Shogun will win this rematch.
This matchup is like watching the myths of Chuck Norris fight Bruce Lee. The two best light heavy weights in the world. This will be an epic fight.
Please share who you think will win and why you've come to that conclusion.
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While I thought that Shogun won the first fight, I think his opportunity was wasted and that Machida will win the rematch. My thought is that Shogun will be overly aggressive and feel that he needs to finish to win (based on the result of the prior matchup) and that Machida will take advantage of that anxiousness and possibly finish the fight himself.
I STILL poop rainbows.
If anything, I think it makes him more relaxed. He’s probably pretty convinced that his style and approach make for better scores. And I honestly believe that the portions of his game that were exposed by Shogun will be shored up at home w/his father/brothers and @ Black House in preparation for the rematch. Shogun will have less of an idea of what to expect now that Machida knows he has to go back to the drawing board instead of sticking to what’s worked for this long.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
If Shogun and Co were smart enough and capable enough to come up with and execute the strategy in the first fight I think they’ve already isolated what Machida will have to do to combat that.
I think they want him to shore those areas up because that will force him to be and play more of a Muay Tai fighter which is shoguns world.
One thing, though, is that there won’t have that element of surprise on Rua’s side. I mean, who really thought that Rua would fight a patient fight using counter kicks? Now, there is video of Rua implementing this strategy, so a counter-attack could potentially be implemented now by Machida and his trainers. Pretty much, the way that Rua fought Machida won’t be “new” anymore, and the ability to adjust to it is now in the hands of Machida and his camp.
Because like Randy Couture said, in a rematch the pressure is always on the guy who won (or in this case should have won). The guy who lost (Lyoto) gets to go back and make adjustments, leaving the guy who won (Shogun) in the dark over what to expect and what to do strategy-wise.
The thing is
That already happened to Machida, in the form of his victories. In fact, although even I was a skeptic of Shawn Tompkins’ idea of “best local karate guys in the area,” both the wrestling approach and Shogun’s kick-based approach both go along with the one thing I understand about game theory (possibly inaccurate)… that taking away the opponent’s greatest advantages > (being able to) apply your greatest advantages.
Had Shogun not gone after Machida’s footwork and legs, something that others (i.e. Bas Rutten) actually suggested months ago in varying ways but with the same aim, I have no idea where Shogun’s greatest advantages would have been (to say nothing of his ability to apply them). Come to think of it, his kick-based approach might be better than trying to use takedowns to do so, for two reasons:
- when Shogun combined his leg strikes with takedowns Machida was still able to stuff every takedown attempt by Shogun, and
- the takedown approach has been done (albeit by trip, never in the UFC by a shoot or pick) and Machida’s emerged just fine. (Let’s not forget that both Kazuhiro Nakamura and Sokoudjou have taken him down.)
In a weird way, Shogun’s contributed to future Machida opponents’ strategies by showing what can (executed properly… i.e. with his newfound patience and discipline) work, but Machida’s inadvertently helped by showing pretty definitely what won’t (for a while anyway it seems) work against him.
I think Machida will win. I think all it will take for him is either a little more agression from himself, like in the 3rd round, where he could flurry to steal rounds, or more agression from Shogun and Machida will take him out like everyone else. Anyone else notice for a while in the 4th round he was able to avoid the kicks? I think by that point he was so worn out though, he couldn’t keep it up
Shogun fought the perfect fight and has shown a strategy to beat Machida. But apart from Shogun, who else is there who could implement it again? There is nobody else in the I can think of who is as effective with kicks or as quick as Shogun, so whilst Machida looked vulnerable, if he wins the rematch its back to talking about him as a dominant champion again I think
I think Machida wins. I like Shogun, but he came with his bread and butter in Muay Thai and while it was effective in marking up Machidas legs and rib cage Machida was never really hurt or in real danger. I think everybody would agree Shogun came in 100% and gave 110% and his best just wasnt quite good enough, on the same note everybody might agree Machida didnt look to be giving 110%. I say Machida goes home with dad an bro. figure out better game plan and dominate next time. I think it will be good and better fight!
At this point it’s safe to say Shogun has the advantage on the feet. He has an answer for Machida’s karate stance. If Machida tries to close the distance Shogun can use his muay thai and probably has the strength advantage in the clinch. What impressed me most was the patience Rua showed. He is clearly willing to stick to a game plan.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see more grappling in the rematch. Machida has to consider giving that a shot, since he was getting peppered pretty good on the feet.
I think the rematch hinges what adjustments Machida makes and how Shogun reacts to them. Rua needs to be flexible and ready for whatever Machida brings. The fighter with the better game plan and in fight adjustments will win.
That’s a good point.
I dont think Shogun can take Machida down – But I do think Machida can take shogun down.
Here’s another question:
Can anyone think of a time where a dominant fighters formula was solved and the rematch looked different?
yeah that’s the one. after Randy was successful in figuring out the puzzle he wasnt able to repeat it again.
The additional parallels are Chuck underestimated Randy just like Machida did Shogun.
Lets see if Machida can adjust.
I’ve always thought Machida is sort of a Prime Chuck 2.0; a really unorthodox fighter who’s hard to take down, only with a solid ground game instead of overwhelming power. Obviously Machida’s more technical, but I’m curious to see how repeatable this strategy is and also how Machida changes. Chuck has had trouble abandoning or changing his style, and I have to wonder if certain things Machida does (his stance especially comes to mind) are too ingrained to change in under a year.
I’m really stoked for the rematch, and I think it’s a coin-toss who comes in more prepared. I’d imagine Shogun is going to have to come in with two gameplans, one for if Machida makes adjustments and one for if he doesn’t.
“Shogun vs Machida Rematch: Who Wins?”
The fans.
by ufc4 on Oct 26, 2009 8:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 3 recs
Rec for the truth.
Flag for the cliche.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
by Blackout612 on Oct 26, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Might be a one time thing
My keyboard started shooting sparks.
"I’m sorry. I didn’t drink last night, so I’m not funny today."
-Sakuraba
Everyone wins
War Machida AND Shogun FOREVER.
One thing that really irritated me about Rogan calling the fight was he completely ignored how good Shogun’s defense against the left straight was. Leg kicking Machida has been done all the time, just people would not protect their face properly and they would get tagged. SHogun kept his arms caging his face almost every time he threw a kick, and when he didn’t Machida caught him. He, unlike Rashad, learned from the Tito fight.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
On top of his defense of Machida’s straight punch, he was also the first not to get caught by the trip after the punch, both when Machida landed it, and when he didn’t. I think another thing that surprised me was Lyoto’s lack of adjustment to the kicks. I expected him to start circling more to his right and stepping outside Shogun’s lead left leg to avoid the kick, but he either didn’t or couldn’t due to Shogun’s speed or because his own speed was compromised by the thigh bruising he was suffering. I’m curious as hell to see how they adjust.
by Kwisatz Haderach on Oct 27, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Shogun is going to win
Machida has been training Karate since 3 yrs old? do u think u can change the stance n way he strikes just over couple months?
Shogun kneed the hell out of Machida’s thigh in the clinch. He’s smart enough to not to waste his energy on takedown n he should get praised for countering the counter striker with strong leg kicks. I can just picture what was going through Machida’s head. Like “wtf is happening here, i’m supposed to be untouchable counter striker.” Just imagine how would you feel as a fighter when your greatest strength has exploited. Also Machida’s leg trips didn’t even work on Shogun.
Shogun will exploit this once again. This time Shogun will actually win by TKO. I think Shogun is more hungrier than Machida.
Shogun just needs to work on avoiding knees.
*We will probably get to see some grappling in my opinion.
You have to beat the legend, in order to become the LEGEND
-Melvin Manhoef (after his destruction of Sakuraba)
From what I recall, the “karate since 3 years old” thing is a myth. As for the leg trips… not the first time it hasn’t worked, both Tito and Evans didn’t get swept.
Whatever happened in his corner already had Machida going “WTF,” I don’t think he was caught up in his own hype. Although, like Okami, he may need to finally expand that camp…
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