Head Kick Legend Takes a Kickboxing Look at Lyoto/Shogun

by Dave Walsh on Oct 25, 2009 6:09 PM EDT

There has been a lot of debate over the decision for last night's Light Heavyweight Championship bout; did Lyoto do enough to win? Was Shogun robbed? Head Kick Legend takes a look at this fight from a different perspective, that of a kickboxing fan in what was easily a kickboxing bout as opposed to a MMA battle. Neither man utilized much grappling, with only a few takedown attempts being something you wouldn't see in a kickboxing battle. If scored as a kickboxing bout, how does it turn out?

Rewatching the fight, it is easy to realize that this fight bares little resemblance to a Mixed Martial Arts battle outside of Shogun attempting a few takedowns; this was a kickboxing fight. I think a lot of MMA fans are used to scoring and watching fights in a different fashion, but when you adjust the way you look at the fight, a few things become more clear. When you take out who was "stalking" who and who was clinching who, the fight becomes a lot more simple to score.

Round one was Lyoto Machida's round. He opens with a thai clinch and a flurry of knees. Shogun throughout most of the round, if not the fight was stalling against the cage. In round one he threw a few knees to the hamstrings of Lyoto, but the damage those did really didn't come into the equation until the late rounds of the fight. Nearly every strike Rua threw completely missed the mark or was blocked. I see a lot of people quoting FightMetric to defend their stance, and all I can say is I'm not sure what fight they were watching and that FightMetric, while the output is somewhat scientific, is still validated and entered by humans, so there is a margin of error.

The full analysis is up at Head Kick Legend.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Comments

How do you do a kickboxing analysis and not even mention the repeated leg and body kicks from Shogun? They were the single most important part of the fight!

by Razzel on Oct 25, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions

They also whiffed a lot!

I abbreviated the last two rounds, because quite frankly there was nothing to dispute over them, I felt. If you watch again Shogun either misses or is blocked with most of his shots. The ones that do land Machida was able to match if not throw a few more for good measure.

All of the damage Shogun did in the first few rounds was against the cage with his knees.

Head Kick Legend
Twitter @HeadKickLegend

by Dave Walsh on Oct 25, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ll have to watch it again.

by Razzel on Oct 25, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I've watched it a few times now..

And the first few rounds are really, really close, but I called them for Machida.

Shogun had a lot of ‘grazing shots’ that Lyoto moved away from as they sort of landed, which means there was very little actual impact on them.

Head Kick Legend
Twitter @HeadKickLegend

by Dave Walsh on Oct 25, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank you. I wouldn’t have been surprised if Shogun got the decision, but a lot of people’s ire over the scoring in rounds 1-3 seems based on a lot of leg kicks that Lyoto blocked with his left hand, or which Shogun just landed a grazing shot with his foot. I understand the opinion that the decision was wrong, but there’s no way it was ONE OF THE WORST DECISIONS IN THE HISTORY OF THE SPORT!!!AHHHH, like so many people are making it out to be. And I agree with you about Fightmetric. It’s still subjective data. If you look at the Fightmetric data on Lyoto/Tito, you’ll be surprised at how many punches and kicks Tito supposedly landed in that fight. Can’t wait for this rematch!

by Kwisatz Haderach on Oct 25, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Write Up

I was one of the people screaming ROBBERY last nite (and I’m a Machida fan) and found your analysis very enlightening. I definitely need to rewatch fight.

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by funnytiger on Oct 25, 2009 8:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Just got done rewatching the fight and this is how i see it

1- Machida safely took the first round, but not really guaranteed to go his way.
2- very close round, could go either way but most likely to Machida. Personally i scored it for Rua, but I understand that the judges probably would rather give it to the “champ”
3- Definitely edging towards Rua, can go to Machida i suppose, but pretty sure in my mind Rua did more than enough to take it.
4 and 5- All Rua, Hard to see how these dont go to rua

So after all that, I’m not going to lie it did seem a lot closer than when I first watched it, which I’m not sure whether it was because of the commentating or the satisfying thud of the leg kicks :D In any case, I think Rua safely took it, and should have at least won on one of the judges score cards. Bias towards the champion I’m assuming.

by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 25, 2009 8:42 PM EDT reply actions

The way I've seen this whole thing..

Is Rua did more damage and Lyoto out-pointed him. If it went to an extension round, Machida didn’t have the mobility to make a good run and would’ve been outpointed.

Head Kick Legend
Twitter @HeadKickLegend

by Dave Walsh on Oct 25, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

well maybe

I’m biased because I score rounds based on damage rather than who throws a whole bunch of wild punches and pushes his opponent against the cage which makes it look like he “rocked” him…..and I’m referring to machida. I’ve looked at parts of the fight repeatedly and it aggravates me that people are saying a lot of shoguns punches just look like they hit, when they really didn’t. Machida was throwing a large number of punches that were perfectly blocked, dodged, or were just grazing. I hardly seen a time where machida hit a clean punch whereas Rua hit quite a few.

by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 25, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions

What the hell

does ‘outpointed’ mean though?

Because as far as I know, aren’t the scoring criteria based on effective strikes landed? Cage generalship? Effective aggression? Effective grappling?

Because based on a pure MMA standpoint, the clinch striking made a very big difference. Shogun landed many more strikes in the clinch than Machida, plain and simple. Compubox, Fightmetric, etc all have Rua landing more shots, round by round, and in total.

Watched the fight last night, and rewatched this morning. No way should that fight’ve gone to Lyoto, no way. I gave Mauricio 4/5 rounds, easy.

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by ElliotMatheny on Oct 25, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed. If you take the first round strike for strike…….you might be able to make an argument for Machida based on perceived damage…….(i still scored it for Rua even based on that)…….but as you mentioned……..aggression and octagon control were clearly Ruas advantage in round 1.

Do people really think that Machida outstruck Shogun so significantly in round 1 that it negated all the other aspects of scoring an mma bout??

by GeeDub on Oct 26, 2009 5:27 AM EDT up reply actions

interesting. :)

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by Anton Tabuena on Oct 25, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions

Judges fight style

Good analysis.

I would also add that when watching the fight, I thought Shogun did enough to win, but knew Lyoto would get the decision because he made certain moves at crucial times that displayed control and generalship that could have given judges the impression he was winning.

Case in point is the clinch from the first round that was mentioned. Another is Lyoto’s takedown defense in the later rounds where it looked like he was defending takedowns from a Shogun that was frustrated on the feet.

It would have been great to see Shogun win, but it was a hell of a fight. The rematch looks to be awesome.

by cyke on Oct 25, 2009 11:10 PM EDT reply actions

a question about Fightmetric

I’ve always been impressed by Fightmetric’s method and outputs, but as noted here, it does depend on human inputs.

And unless they have access to video other than the PPV feed and a large team of people going to work immediately (I’m asking if they do), I’m not sure how they were able to put up the official report on the fight only 2 hours after it ended. Is it really possible to accurately judge the accuracy and power of all the strikes in a 25-minute fight in 2 hours?

(For the record, I was pretty sure Shogun won the fight on first viewing myself. I’m trying to be objective about the matter. And in any event, it wasn’t a “robbery.”)

by BTastros on Oct 25, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions

How would you score it if it was tennis? or fencing?

Come on.

by judonerd on Oct 26, 2009 2:10 AM EDT reply actions

sorry, still pissed. my attitude is still getting the best of me.

by judonerd on Oct 26, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Fair point..

But MMA and kickboxing aren’t entirely different. The only difference between this and a kickboxing match were the takedown attempts and the clinches that in kickboxing would’ve been broken.

If you take out the clinches it gave Shogun next to no real landed shots. Leave them in and the fight is closer but still makes me lean towards Machida.

Head Kick Legend
Twitter @HeadKickLegend

by Dave Walsh on Oct 26, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

i do think you have to judge the effectiveness of strategy and gaemplans through a different lens—different combat sports have differnt goals, and leg kicks have a huge impact on grappling and footsweeps like machida’s

by judonerd on Oct 26, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

and no worries

about the ’tude, my dude. You made good on it.

Head Kick Legend
Twitter @HeadKickLegend

by Dave Walsh on Oct 26, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Nice article and a fairly solid case. However, the problem is that Shogun and Machida didn’t fight a kickboxing match but an MMA match – and it should be scored as one, regardless of the “tools” used by the fighters.

Still, the blueprint for beating Machida is out there now. Whether future opponents will be able to implement it is another question. That includes Shogun in their hopeful rematch.

by Monday Morning Martial Artist on Oct 26, 2009 7:10 AM EDT reply actions

Problem is, most of the 205’rs are bangers/wrestlers and hardly implement a strategy like the one Shogun used (Muy thai based striking). More often than not they will employ a Rashad like gameplan and that is when Machida will strike.

by oasis77 on Oct 26, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

the biggest problem..

Is that Shogun attacked Machida’s stance.

Most MMA fighters are head hunters and Shogun showed aiming at what Machida sticks out will score you points. Machida moves his head out of the way, and his body to the most part.

He was able to move out of the way of most of the mid kicks, but they still did some damage.

Head Kick Legend
Twitter @HeadKickLegend

by Dave Walsh on Oct 26, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it's funny

That everyone keeps saying, “the blueprint for beating Machida is out there now”. I think Machida knew he was losing that fight and realized his mistakes from it… Do you really think he isn’t going to change anything from now until either his next opponent/rematch with Shogun?

I'm the kind of girl who loves to watch a GOOD fight!
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by funnytiger on Oct 26, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah because after decades of repetiton

and being undefeated, it is going to be soooo easy for machida to make fundamental adjustments.

by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 26, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I think an adjustment in gameplan

Rather than an adjustment in fundamentals what he would really need. He’s not Chuck.

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by funnytiger on Oct 26, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

what part of Lyoto's gameplan is adjustable?

He sits back and bores the other fighter into making bad decisions. Shogun out-patiented lyoto, and didn’t buy his feints. the only thing lyoto can change is to be more aggressive, which wouldn’t work because lyoto doesnt KO with power, he does it with precision and timing, and his shots weren’t hitting their mark at all in that fight.

by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 26, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree

But you sound like you’re a pretty solidly going to argue for Shogun so I’m going to just step back and let you do that without me.

I'm the kind of girl who loves to watch a GOOD fight!
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by funnytiger on Oct 26, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I've been on rage mode since the decision

so don’t take it personal ;)

by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 26, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Clearly, lol

Rage on my friend, rage on!

I'm the kind of girl who loves to watch a GOOD fight!
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by funnytiger on Oct 26, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

you should have seen me in mma chatrooms! but in all seriousness and honesty, I guess I do kind of feel that one of the reasons I and so many other people so angry about the decision is that I feel shogun may lose the rematch, and that this may have been his one shot and that he may not win again. Just a small concern, as I do feel shogun would most likely take the rematch more decisively, but that is in the back of my mind.

by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 26, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Whether future opponents will be able to implement it is another question. That includes Shogun in their hopeful rematch.

As oasis77 and D.W. alluded, the way the division has formed up stylistically in terms of the “top tier,” I’m not sure if anyone else but Shogun can beat Machida, before the inevitable things that will end all their careers, i.e. the speed and reflexes going.

That second fight will be the best thing for both guys, win or lose.

by Chortles on Oct 26, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Anderson could beat him..

But we know what wouldn’t happen.

If anything this fight was a good example of why former training partners fighting isn’t always a good idea. We’ve seen this happen before, so it wasn’t unexpected that both guys knew each other’s tricks and knew how to avoid each other’s stuff.

Head Kick Legend
Twitter @HeadKickLegend

by Dave Walsh on Oct 26, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

In the lead-up to this, Shogun had specifically said that Anderson Silva’s knowledge of him (and thus value as a training partner) was outdated; same would go for any first-hand knowledge Machida had of Shogun from their brief time together at Chute Boxe.

by Chortles on Oct 26, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Thinking that if Brandon Vera deploys the same type of gameplan, that Machida wouldn’t be able to walk after the 2nd round.

Spinning out solid gold, like Rumpelstiltskin.

by Heenan on Oct 26, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions

Brandon Vera's defense is nowhere near as good.

Vera sticks his head out more than Shogun does and his affinity for leaving himself open is a glaring problem he has. As is him being boring.

I hope we never see Lyoto/Vera.

Head Kick Legend
Twitter @HeadKickLegend

by Dave Walsh on Oct 26, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I strongly recommend that everybody watch the fight again, but this time MUTE the tv or computer. It is very obvious that Joe Rogan bet a large sum of money on Shogun. Machida kicked the mouth piece out of Shoguns mouth and Rogan just acted like he was in the bathroom and didnt see it! I have always agreed with the things Rogan has said during a fight and after, but this time was different. Goldy constantly had to say oh yea, but look what Machida just did, Joe wouldnt recognize anything, but Shogun. Pretend your watching the fight for the first time, mute the tv and I guarnatee you have a different opinion on the fight. As opposed to being a “robbery” things will be a little more clear!

by BrettE on Oct 26, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions