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UFC 104 Preview: Can Mauricio "Shogun" Rua Solve the Puzzle of Lyoto Machida?

Mauricio_rua_vs_lyoto_machida_medium UFC 104's main event has caused a lot of interest among fans as possibly being a bout in which the perceived invincible force that is Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (15-0, 7-0 UFC) could meet his match across the cage in former PRIDE fighter Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3). The bout will mark Machida's first defense of his light heavyweight crown after defeating Rashad Evans at UFC 98. Rua enters the bout after knocking out UFC legend Chuck Liddell at UFC 97 and defeating Mark Coleman in a lackluster effort at UFC 93. Despite the loss to Forrest Griffin in his UFC debut and the conditioning issues at UFC 93 against Coleman, the hype surrounding Rua suggests that he may very well be back to form for this fight.

There are a number of debates among fans regarding how this fight will go down. A lot of fans feel that Rua's best shot at defeating Machida is by working the ground game, something that Rua has proven to be one of his more technical assets in his skill-set. While he hasn't used it extensively in his career to finish fights, he has shown that he's definitely one of the better grapplers in the light heavyweight division. In watching him from a technical standpoint, Rua's jiu-jitsu could give Machida some significant problems on the ground, but we haven't actually answered the question as to whether Machida is vulnerable on the floor against a great grappler.

Other fans believe the clinch is the key to defeating "The Dragon", and I wouldn't be in total disagreement with that assessment. Rua's clinch game in PRIDE was his bread and butter to devastating opponents. The famed Chute Box Academy that brought Rua into the sport as an aggressive, dominating force to be reckoned with was easily one of the largest influences on his Muay Thai clinch game, and it's bred other dominating monsters like Wanderlei Silva. Many fans feel aggression is the only way to beat Machida, but a reserved aggression may ultimately be the Achilles' Heel for Machida. Unlike Thiago Silva, who came at Machida with wild, aggressive punching, it may be beneficial for Rua to wade into the clinch, and then unleash the fury of his aggressive style while putting Machida in the plum.

I find both strategies tough to swallow though. Machida is going to be very tough to put on the ground with his Shotokan stance, patience, and evasion techniques, and the clinch hasn't been a place in which opponents have easily latched onto him. While I don't think Rua will succumb to Sumo trips against the fence, I think Machida has the strength to push off Rua's advances toward a clinch game.

Ufc_104_medium

Star-divide

Ultimately, that leaves Rua's striking game as his sole means to ending this fight. Some fans will tell you an exaggerated story of Rua's technical prowess in the striking game, but all the tape in the world won't confirm their beliefs. While he was an effective striker in PRIDE due to his aggression and overwhelming pressure, Rua didn't display on overly technical striking game at any point. In some fights, he would show the abilities to outstrike opponents with intellect, but in a battle with Machida.. he's easily at a disadvantage.

Machida's ability to parry attacks while simultaneously throwing the counter is unparalleled in any division in this sport. It's nearly unstoppable due to the sheer speed at which the movements happen, and the only real counter to such a skill is to throw in combinations with accuracy. Throwing combinations and keeping Machida on the backpedal can easily stop him from countering with shots, but Machida has shown the ability to slip punches through his opponents' defenses despite those comibinations. Thiago Silva was the perfect example, but Rua will easily be a much better striker along with knowing what Machida's strengths are coming into the fight.

Despite what many fans project in their opinions, the Machida-era has not yet begun. There are still some questions remaining that he has yet to answer. His ground game hasn't been truly tested, and Rua's takedowns and tactics could pose a threat. He has yet to be bullied in the clinch, and we haven't seen him tested in terms of recovery like that of the Fedor-Fujita incident. Will we ever see those tests? We may not. He may be that dominating and invincible as everyone would like to think he is.

I'm a bit of a biased participant in this preview, but I can give Rua a fair shake at the possibility of winning this fight. If he can put Machida on his back, anything is possible as his Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials speak for themselves. In the clinch, I'm highly hesitant to believe Rua can push Machida around in the plum, but it's also a possibility. I'd like to see both possibilities play themselves out in order to test "The Dragon", but I think it'll ultimately come down to Machida's quick strikes and strategy that will win him this fight.

Poll
Who will win the UFC 104 Main Event?
Lyoto Machida
798 votes
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
321 votes

1119 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 42 comments  |  Add comment |

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Shogun is Machidas toughest test to date. If he gets past this I’m officially on the Machida bandwagon. I predict an elusive Machida comeback tonight, which sucks. Still Hua just need one good shot and goodnight Irene. Like Alvarez said in his prefight DREAM12 presser. Its not all about technique. Hell look at Rogers/AA. Shogun can pull it out and I hope he does.

If he does…

Twitter

xFenixKnightx
Streaking, Shogun won, bitches!!!1
1min ago from Twitterberry.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 24, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed that Shogun will be Machida’s toughest test.

Back when Machida beat Soko I said the only guy who would beat him would be an aggressive fighter that can take a punch. Back in those days I still had hopes Wandy would be that guy, but my hopes were gone when it was proven that he really have lost his chin. Today the guy is Shogun for sure, I don’t think he’ll get embarrassed in the stand up, he’ll scrap and try to make it his fight, he will be in Machida’s face at all times and will take hits which won’t phase him and get the clinch, then he will work on his knees and if they go to the ground on his g’n’p.

Regardless though, if it doesn’t go his way, Machida will be here to stay. Shogun is really his toughest test and Machida can get passed him without any danger I don’t think anyone in 205 can take the belt from him.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

" he will be in Machida’s face at all times"

I hope this is the case, if so it’ll be a short night for Shogun.

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Oct 24, 2009 10:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

he’ll be able to absorb Machida’s strikes without getting KO’d nor TKO’d.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He’ll absorb them as well as Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans did.

"Why am I here? Why does my mind have wings? Why do blue midgets hit me with fish?!" - The Tick

by mythbuster on Oct 24, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

naw

Thiago has a suspect chin, and Hashad was staying in front of him asking for it, Shogun is not going to stay in front of Machida asking for it :P

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it really sounds like you’re trying to convince yourself.

frankly, rashad> shogun. Machida >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>rashad

by amadeus on Oct 24, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

so you view Franklin and Rashad as better than Shogun? Interesting… I don’t :P

And I’m not trying to convince myself, I’m trying to convince you guys that Shogun is a legit threat, but I acknowledge that I fail at that hehe, he’ll do a much better job at convincing you guys tonight!

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

HE said frankly, not franklin

by Shaun32887 on Oct 24, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

DOH

my next question was going to be “who’s frankly” lol, I need my morning coffee, I ran out of it in the house…

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

frankly, rashad> shogun. Machida >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>rashad

Coocoo en la cabeza buddy.

If Rashad wouldn’t have been scared shitless and utilized his wrestling it would have been a different fight. He got caught up in the hype. Shogun isn’t getting caught up and he’s doesn’t look like he scared of Lyoto. The best bet for this fight is Lyoto but running around and getting a UD.

He better be careful though becuase Shogun >>>>>>>> Tito, Rashad, Silva, Soko, Hoger, Heath, Franklin , Bonner

 Believe it sucka! =)

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 24, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would like to see Evans vs Shogun actually. I honestly feel that those two would be a pretty even fight.

by chrisbboy82 on Oct 24, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I liked your idea of using the long strings of combos on Machida.

for all intents and purposes, just consider all my posts as works of satire.

by Bandaka on Oct 24, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The only way Shogun wins is if he beats Machida.

There, I said it.

"Why am I here? Why does my mind have wings? Why do blue midgets hit me with fish?!" - The Tick

by mythbuster on Oct 24, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

well articulated. that’s like something john madden would say. “the team that wins this game is the team that scores more points than the other team.. most of the time, if your team can score more point than the other team, you have a good chance to win”

by amadeus on Oct 24, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Myth, busted!

Rec’d!

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 24, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is MMA Nation getting Bellator’d again this week?

by Jahbulon on Oct 24, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No

‘MMA Nation Monthly’ will be on today

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Oct 24, 2009 12:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I want Shogun to win

but if he at least gives Machida a fight, a real test since he hasn’t really been pushed since the BJ Penn fight, then I’ll be okay. Shogun is my boy, and I know he’ll bring the fire in this one.

We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.

by Robert Downey Sr. on Oct 24, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Didn’t he get choked out by Forrest Griffin?

"Why am I here? Why does my mind have wings? Why do blue midgets hit me with fish?!" - The Tick

by mythbuster on Oct 24, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sure

but what the fuck does that have to do with what I said?

We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.

by Robert Downey Sr. on Oct 24, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

does anyone else want Machida to win

because your tired of seeing the LHW belt change hands EVERY SINGLE TIME ITS BEEN FOUGHT FOR IN THE LAST YEAR…. its just annoying, no sense of a hierarchy because everyone is a former champ

by amadeus on Oct 24, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That’s what happens when you have a staked division (although it’s not as stacked as it used to be because of it, everyone beat everyone and now the division is a bit stale).

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want Lyoto to win because he seems like a nice guy, and has a very unique style that I enjoy watching.

"Why am I here? Why does my mind have wings? Why do blue midgets hit me with fish?!" - The Tick

by mythbuster on Oct 24, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d rather have that than a single dominant champion with no one left to fight

by Shaun32887 on Oct 24, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Machida era began last fight according to Joe Rogan.

You live in KC?

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Oct 24, 2009 12:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Machidas post fight interview after his loss to Shogun.

That urine was a lie, Yoshizo. A LIE! They give me no eagle powers! They give me no nutrients!!!

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 24, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I welcome sig bets on this one

All you Shogun lovers put your money where your mouth is.

If Machida wins your new sig is “Machida is a god, I now drink my urine daily”

If Machida loses my new sig is “Mauricio pulled out his Shogun and blew Lyoto’s brains out, I fail”

Who’s in?

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Oct 24, 2009 1:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

can I get odds?

if Machida wins, I’ll use that sig for two weeks, if Shogun wins, you must use the following for a month; Shogunned down Machida, I fail at this MMA stuff!

you up for it?

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man I thought you were confident and now you’re asking for odds. Ok I’ll take it.

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Oct 24, 2009 3:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Btw, the bet is on the official result, no matter if there are discrepancies such as early stoppages nor bad judging!

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am confident, but you didn’t give a time line and I was just trying to make a professional bet (since whoever bets money on Shogun would win more than the same amount of money they’d get with a Machida win).

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!

by orcus on Oct 24, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How bout you do

“UFC and Machida sucks! Long live Strikeforce and Fedor!” lol

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 24, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Im going for Shogun just for the fact that he is the underdog, I believe the outcome of this fight will come down to one of two things.

1) Machida knocks Shogun out in the 3rd round or sooner.

2)Or the fight goes to a decision with Machida winning all the rounds in boring fashin.

But anyways…..GO SHOGUN!!!!

Everyone has a game plan, untell they get hit.

by mma is #1 on Oct 24, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

shogun is gonna expose that lead leg of machida(even randy couture mentioned it). he’s gonna counter with a overhand right but shogun will expect it and has the speed to land then get away.

by mr. gogoplata on Oct 24, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Shogun gets beat handily. The defeat of Liddell didn’t mean much to me as I think Liddell is pretty much done.

by jrobb20 on Oct 24, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Stylistically Shogun is a powered up version of Thiago Silva. Same ending, longer fight.

Keep firing Assholes!

Never trust a man with no shirt on.

by Ubernoober on Oct 24, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m picking Machida by KO late in the third, but I do think Shogun’s best chance is to be hyper aggressive early on. No one’s tried it yet against Machida, so I don’t think Shogun should wait too long before cutting loose. And before you say that Thiago Silva, Tito or Soko were aggressive, I’ll just say that Shogun’s speed makes it a whole different game than guys just slowly wading in, throwing punches and trying to walk Machida down…If Shogun attacks with speed, cutting angles and using his kicks to mix things up, I think he may have a shot. More than anything, I just hope he can take Machida into the championship rounds. As long as Shogun doesn’t get thoroughly schooled, he may get a rematch before too long, and Machida is the kind of guy you may need to lose to once, in order to come back and figure him out.

by Kwisatz Haderach on Oct 24, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Puzzle solved.

by grein on Oct 25, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs


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