UFC 104: October 24, 2009
The Staples Center
Los Angeles, California

Main card:


Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

Luke Thomas: Rua is going to need every ounce of durability here. Quite candidly, the only way I see him even having a chance is not off of a lightning quick strike or offensive dump, but on the rebound. Machida can be a little over aggressive when following up on a hurt opponent in a rush to finish. If Rua can hang on in those moments and get through, he might be able to reverse fortunes. Of course, we're talking serious, serious longshots here. Machida is going to hurt him badly. Machida by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: This would be a very different fight in a square ring where Rua could trap Machida in a corner and force the kind of ugly up-close exchanges where he thrives. But there are no corners in the Octagon and Machida should pick Rua apart on the feet. I think there is a chance that Rua's incredible balance could put him on top of Machida if they fight for takedowns in the clinch and from there, Shogun could very well win the fight. But that's a slim chance and not enough reason to pick against the champ. Lyoto should destroy Shogun's rhythm, batter him with potshots and finish him in the 2nd or 3rd. Machida by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: When I picked Shogun to knock out Chuck it was more a product of Chuck's decline than any deep belief in Rua's abilities.  While I think that Shogun at his best is a threat to beat anyone in the world I haven't seen anything that truly makes me think that he has returned to the kind of form that we can truly call his "best."  Machida, however, is at the peak of his career.  He may be able to get better but I doubt he is getting any worse any time soon.  Machida's strategy needs to be what it always is, stick and move early landing when he wants.  Once we get into the second half of the first round Shogun will become considerably less dangerous (unless his cardio is significantly improved).  I do think that even a gassed Shogun won't be finished in this fight so as much as I'd like to see a knockout...Lyoto Machida by decision.

Michael Rome:  I don't really see this being all that close, but I still think it will be a fun fight.  To me, the best strategy for Shogun is to be cautiously aggressive.  Constantly move forward and make Machida use a lot of energy moving around while not leaving himself open, and then try to turn it on in the third round.  I don't think he'll do that.  I think he'll be patient for about 2 minutes and then lose it.  Lyoto Machida via KO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Great fight here. I believe Shogun is underrated according to the betting odds. But I can't pick against Machida. Machida by TKO.

Eugene Schelfaut: The avenues through which Rua can finish the fight or win a majority of rounds are slim. Therefore, Lyoto Machida by TKO, round 3.

Leland Roling: Rua's best chance to defeat "The Dragon" is either on the floor or in some sort of PRIDE-era rage in the clinch game. Unfortunately, I think Machida is way too quick to be mimiced, way too smart, and way too elusive for "Shogun" to have any idea what to expect when it comes fight time. Machida will parry Rua's attacks and counter instantly, pummeling him on his way to victory. Rua has yet to show a gas tank, and if this goes into the late rounds... forget it. Lyoto Machida via TKO, Round 3.

Mike Fagan: Shogun needs to get the fight to the floor to win.  Good luck with that.  I think this gets past round two,but it'll be Machida all day.  Lyoto Machida by TKO, round 4.




Cain Velazquez vs. Ben Rothwell

Luke Thomas: I actually don't think Rothwell has that bad of a chance stylistically speaking. I wonder what will happen to Velazquez if he gets tagged and needs to force the fight to the floor. While Kongo couldn't put up much of a defense, Rothwell's takedown defense is sturdier. That being said, Rothwell's IFL record is somewhat exaggerated. He split decisioned Roy Nelson, fought a now light heavyweight Soszynski, went the distance with Ricco Rodriguez while the former UFC champion was still not training seriously and essentially beat up much lesser competition. Velazquez is by far the best wrestler that Rothwell has ever faced. So, while Rothwell is an excellent opponent and real challenge, I can't see him winning unless Velazquez forgets how to wrestle. Velazquez by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Ben Rothwell is about to discover that the UFC is not the IFL. He has a puncher's chance against Velasquez, but I think Cain is too skilled and smart an athlete to make the same mistakes he made against Kongo again. Velasquez by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Cain is a guy with legitimate liabilities at this point in his career, mainly in his stand-up defense.  So Rothwell is completely capable of catching him standing and finishing but Ben's liabilities in the wrestling department are probably a bigger deal here.  Cain Velasquez by decision.

Michael Rome:  Rothwell is getting too much love, he's not on Cain's athletic level and I think Cain is going to run circles around him.  Cain has major issues standing, but luckily for him he learned the lesson early in his career and can still make defensive adjustments.  Cain Velasquez via TKO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Tough fight for Velasquez here. I can't see Velasquez being able to take/keep Rothwell down. With that, it's Rothwell by TKO.

Eugene Schelfaut: I do not have much confidence in this prediction: Velasquez will be able to recover after being dropped by Rothwell. Cain Velasquez by decision.

Leland Roling: Rothwell's takedown defense is being way overrated by fans in this match-up. Sure, he has size and strength and some gangly arms to throws jabs at Cain, but he isn't the striker that Cheick Kongo is nor will he stop Cain's takedowns for three rounds. Cain Velasquez via decision.

Mike Fagan:  Rothwell has experience, but he's never won a huge fight.  His best win is a split decision over Roy Nelson.  Fat Ricco took him the distance.  Arlovski lit him up.  Velasquez is the real deal, though his size may hold him back against the big boys.  Cain Velasquez by decision.




Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau

Luke Thomas: Neer is tough, but Tibau isn't trying to take his soul with punishment. I guarantee Tibau is content to win on takedowns and positional control. Neer has to hurt Tibau badly to do that and since a large Neer won't have a size advantage over a very large Tibau, he's going to have to work very hard to stop the Brazilian's shots. I don't see it happening for him. Tibau by decision.

Kid Nate: Tibau is possibly the biggest man in the UFC's lightweight division. Neer is an ex-welterweight himself. Tibau likes to establish top control and ride out a decision. Neer has one of the most underrated guards in the game and defines the term "scrapper". I'll be pulling for Neer here, but I think Tibau will ride out the win here. Tibau by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Neer isn't good enough at staying off his back and while he can be effective from there Tibau is too good at the top game.  Gleison Tibau by decision

Michael Rome:  I think this could be a boring fight of Tibau on top.  Tibau via decision.

Nick Thomas: Tibau will be able to take Neer down and pull off what Pellegrino did. Tibau by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: My interest for this fight is lacking by a large degree. Tibau will win with control, so Gleison Tibau by decision.

Leland Roling: Neer has the potential to pull off the win here, but Tibau is a wrestler/grappler who could put him into a world of trouble like Kurt Pellegrino did. Tibau isn't as gritty as Pellegrino per say, but he has the skill-set to frustrate Neer from top control. It'll be up to Neer to pepper Tibau to win. Gleison Tibau via decision.

Mike Fagan: In a single word, Neer fights dumb.  He's like Chris Lytle without the whole conscious decision to fight an "exciting" style.  Tibau's top control will be too much.  Gleison Tibau by decision.




Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher

Luke Thomas: Fisher has openly admitted his wrestling is terrible. While the Stevenson of old got busted up by Luke Cummo, this Stevenson is far more patient and able to see punches coming. Fisher's hand speed could pose a problem, but not enough of one. Stevenson by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Stevenson should be able to plant Fisher on his butt early and often. I doubt he'll be able to submit Spencer or finish him with strikes but he should coast to an easy, and boring, decision. Stevenson by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  This feels like trying to pick a Jorge Gurgel fight.  Yeah, if Stevenson follows the smart gameplan he should be able to win a somewhat easy fight.  If he falls back into the trap of wanting to stand and bang Fisher will eat him up.  I've gotta have faith in Joe here, even if I feel like I'm going to get burned.  Joe Stevenson by decision.

Michael Rome:  If Stevenson is smart this will be an easy win and a boring fight.  And yes, that's a huge if.  I don't think Fisher's standing game is all that great either, but I'll go ahead and take Stevenson by decision.

Nick Thomas: Stevenson + Greg Jacksons MMA = Stevenson by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I hope Stevenson does not get it into his mind to prove anything about his striking. Joe Stevenson by TKO, round 3.

Leland Roling: Fisher is a solid striker, but his takedown defense has always been suspect. Stevenson should be able to power through Fisher and gain takedowns or clinch and use his power to put him on his back. Joe Stevenson via TKO, Round 3.

Mike Fagan:  I liked what I saw from Jackson-backed Stevenson.  He looked way more focused on following a gameplan.  That spells trouble for a guy like Fisher.  Joe Stevenson by submission, round 2.



Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Luke Thomas: I'll give the speed, strength, size, athleticism, power and striking advantages all to Johnson. For the limited Yoshida, that's enough for me. Johnson by KO, round 1.

Kid Nate: This is the second most compelling matchup on the main card by a long shot. For all of Yoshida's virtues, a wicked judo game for takedowns and devastating ground and pound and submissions once he's on top, he's in deep water here. Yoshida could possibly cut down to lightweight. Anthony "Rumble" Johnson could fight at light heavyweight. Johnson's striking is just going to be too much for Yoshida and his wrestling should allow him to keep it standing. There's a chance Yoshida will catch him with a throw, but not a good one. Johnson by KTFO.

Brent Brookhouse: Yoshida is a hell of a fighter but he's outgunned in power, outgunned athletically, and outgunned in speed.  It's not a good recipe for a victory.  I think it all comes down to if Johnson gets sloppy and gets himself caught by a throw or a power punch.  I don't think there is any reason to call for anything other than Anthony Johnson by TKO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Real hard fight to pick.  Johnson is still green and hasn't fought any judokas, and if he ends up on his back he is in big trouble.  Judo is one of those martial arts that can really use size against a guy, so I'm not sure Johnson's size is going to be his saving grace.  Still, I think the odds are in favor of Johnson catching Yoshida with a big right hand.  Johnson via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Can Yoshida get Johnson to the ground? I don't think so. Johnson by TKO.

Eugene Schelfaut: I think the fights happens on the feet. At least until Anthony Johnson wins by KO, round 1.

Leland Roling: I want to pick Yoshida here, but it's a tough sell against such a lengthy and strong Anthony Johnson. He has better striking, and his wrestling is underrated. He should be able to keep this standing and defeat Yoshida. Anthony Johnson via TKO, Round 2.

Mike Fagan:  Johnson's just way too big.  (Even bigger after the weigh-ins!)  Anthony Johnson by KO, round 1.

 

Preliminary bouts:


Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen

Luke Thomas: The better pure wrestler is Sonnen and even though he's error prone and essentially one-dimensional, I have difficulty seeing Okami lord his skill set over him. I see a few shots being stopped and that might frustrate Sonnen to an extent, but is Okami going to follow up? I doubt it. Sonnen by decision.

Kid Nate: I'm both very excited about this fight and totally infuriated about it. This is easily the most competitive and most significant non-title fight on the card and yet its not even on the SPIKE TV undercard. Okami and Sonnen are both top ten middleweights according to the USAT/SBN Consensus MMA rankings and present each other with a brutal stylistic dilemma. Both men rely on their wrestling to establish top control games and win by ground and pound and positional dominance, but as any bathhouse denizen can tell you, there can only be one top man at a time. I don't see Okami out pointing Sonnen on the feet so it's going to come down whether Okami's size and power and judo skills can overcome Sonnen's significant advantage in Greco-Roman wrestling and whether or not Sonnen fights a smart fight. It's that last factor that is making my decision, Okami by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Okami's inconsistent schedule worries me when it comes to a fight this close.  It's really a matter of his inconsistent schedule versus Sonnen's occasional lack of smarts in the cage.  I think Chael will be smart enough to win a close one through some smooth outside striking.  Chael Sonnen by decision.

Michael Rome:  I have no interest in seeing the fight, though I'm interested to see who wins.  It's a relevant fight I'd rather be told about than watch.  Dana will probably send Sonnen to the Bahamas on vacation if he wins.  I'm still taking Okami, Chael fights stupid a lot.  Okami via decision.

Nick Thomas: Okami will be bigger and stronger. I really hope we get to see this fight. Okami by TKO.

Eugene Schelfaut:  I am not one of those with a like for Okami, though I think he should be able to control this fight from the ground. Yushin Okami by decision.

Leland Roling: I want to believe Yushin Okami can remain the great Japanese hope for the UFC Middleweight division. Sonnen's wrestling could spell disaster, but I've been a firm believer that Sonnen's MMA IQ is somewhat limited. Okami is very powerful as well, so this should be a grudge match. Yushin Okami via split decision.

Mike Fagan:  I hope the UFC puts out the dumbest fighter of the night award because it'll be a barnburner between Neer and Sonnen.  Yeah, Sonnen's got the better pure wrestling credentials, but Okami's a beast.  Unless "Thunder" is still recovering from injuries, I like him here.  Yushin Okami by decision.




Pat Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk

Luke Thomas: Hardonk would be an idiot to stand for long here where both can posture in front of one another in a war of chicken. Hardonk is no Kron Gracie, but he has the clear edge on the ground and that should be enough for the very green Pat Barry. Hardonk by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: I'm hoping for a full-on kickboxing match here, but I expect that after the initial exchanges one of these guys will decide his best chance is on the ground. I expect that to be Hardonk, who's bigger and has some grappling skills -- contrasted with Barry's blank slate in the ground game. Hardonk by ground and pound.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm seeing this going down with Barry landing some heavy leg kicks and Hardonk using his smarts to take Barry down and wear on him.  I don't know that Hardonk will be able to get a submission but I do think he can grind out a win in somewhat ugly fashion.  Antoni Hardonk by decision.

Michael Rome:  This is a match designed for fireworks, but I don't know if we'll get them.  Barry isn't the better striker in my view, and he's definitely worse on the ground.  Hardonk via submission, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Barry by TKO.

Eugene Schelfaut: This is another fight where I might be picking based on my like of one fighter over the other. Barry has yet to show a ground game, and yet Pat Barry by TKO, round 2.

Leland Roling: Antoni Hardonk should come out and try to use his jiu-jitsu skills to submit Barry, but I doubt it. Barry's kicks are heavy, but Hardonk is equally good in the striking department. Both men won't KO Rampage Jackson any time soon, but someone should go lights out here. I'll go with the surprise though. Antoni Hardonk via submission, Round 2.

Mike Fagan:  Has Pat Barry learned a ground game?  No?  Antoni Hardonk by submission, round 2.




Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons

Luke Thomas: Rivera is going to try to pressure Kimmons at the bell, but Kimmons is actually very strong, a decent wrestler and submission-savvy. That's historically been kryptonite for Rivera. Sure, Kimmons got whacked by power-punching Melvin Guillard, but I don't see Rivera getting the one off here to make it happen. Kimmons by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Rivera seems to be running out his string in the UFC, but he's shown that he's still capable of KTFO'ing a fool who doesn't respect his striking. Kimmons should be able to get the fight to the ground and get the tap out though. Kimmons by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: I'd really like to see Jorge get a win here but this is an ugly matchup for him.  Kimmons kind of represents Rivera's nightmare opponent.  He can avoid the big power shots and is much better on the ground.  I'll be pulling for Rivera but I can't pick him.  Rob Kimmons by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  This is exactly the kind of fight Jorge Rivera loses.  Kimmons via submission.

Nick Thomas:  Kimmons via submission.

Eugene Schelfaut: I'm the lone man on for Rivera here, but I have to make gains in my percentage somehow. And that will not be on the back of Rua. Jorge Rivera by KO, round 1.

Leland Roling: Kimmons is fairly good at avoiding the power of strikers, and that's really all that Rivera will present here. Rivera could come out fairly aggressive and get caught in a submission during the scramble, and Kimmons has a mean guillotine choke waiting. Rob Kimmons via submission, Round 1.

Mike Fagan:  Jorge Rivera's just too old.  Sorry.  Rob Kimmons by submission, round 1.




Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer

Luke Thomas: This could actually end either on the feet or the ground, but Bader's going to be the winner regardless. Schafer has better jiu-jitsu, but is a slow, methodical grappler. That won't work against the strong, fast moving, attacking Bader. Second, Schafer has never shown a willingness to exchange in the pocket with heavy punches, either with or without abandon. And even if he does here, he doesn't take punishment well. As long as Bader keeps the heat on him, Schafer will fold. Bader by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Schafer's a good test for Bader as he develops as a fighter. A good submission guy without much else on offer, "Red" Schafer could tap Bader out if Bader is careless. But Bader is more than capable of winning this on the feet and definitely has the wrestling to keep it standing. For all the hype that Jon Jones gets, if the two fought today, I'd pick Bader. Bader by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Bader gets slept on by a lot of people, the guy is a legitimate fighter with a ton of upside.  It'll be fun to watch him use his power striking to put Schafer to sleep on Saturday.  Ryan Bader by KO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Nice protective matchmaking here.  The real question is if they'll ever be able to turn up the heat and give Bader a tough 205 fight.  Bader via KO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Bader won't be able to lay on Schafer, like he did with Carmelo Marrero. Schafer by submission.

Eugene Schelfaut: I think Bader will be able to lay on Schafer, but it will be after Bader wins the striking exchanges and puts Schafer to the mat. Ryan Bader by decision.

Leland Roling: This is a bit baffling. Both guys are stating they want to stay on the feet, and that's a bad mistake for Schafer. While he has more experience, he hasn't shown a great striking game in the UFC. Bisping punched his face in, and Bader will do the same with way more power if he goes toe-to-toe. I expect Bader to punch Schafer, Schafer to resort back to takedowns and BJJ to which he'll fail, and Bader to put Schafer on the ground to pound him out. Ryan Bader via TKO, Round 2.

Mike Fagan:  Yeah, Bader.  But I'll take Schafer just to be that guy.  Eric Schafer by submission, round 2.




Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan

Luke Thomas: There are so many obvious holes in Al-Hassan's game that one doesn't know where to begin. He's like MMA's Yong Soo Park: he's got a different, maybe usable skill set that will never be effective as long as the other parts of his game are neglected. Kingsbury's submission prowess is not otherwordly, but it's enough to get the job done. Kingsbury by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Both of these guys are decent regional circuit grapplers with gaping holes in their skill sets. Frankly they're the kind of guys who cry out for the WEC to return to being a minor league promotion where fighters can get seasoned and build up a name for themselves. I have to go with Kingsbury due to Al-Hassan's awful standup. He fights like he took too many McDojo TKD lessons. Kingsbury by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  If you're an Al-Hassan fan then enjoy his last UFC fight.  Actually RA-H fans there won't be anything for you to enjoy in this fight.  Kyle Kingsbury by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Kingsbury via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: I think Kingsbury is going to stand and trade with Al-Hassan. That could be a big mistake. Al-Hassan by TKO.

Eugene Schelfaut: Kyle Kingsbury by armbar, round 1.

Leland Roling: Tough to call, but Kyle Kingsbury has been making some vast improvements at AKA according to some sources. We'll see if that pans out here against Al-Hassan. Hassan is wild, aggressive, and... bad. I just don't get why he's so spastic. Kingsbury, with any patience, should be able to rough up Al-Hassan and take this one. Kyle Kingsbury via TKO, Round 2.

Mike Fagan:  Karate don't work for everybody.  Kyle Kingsbury by decision.




Chase Gormley vs. Stefan Struve

Luke Thomas: Another fight where if fighter A (Gormley) keeps the heat on fighter B (Struve), it's fighter A's match to lose. A big, tough and dominating wrestler in Gormley with the right kind of risk management should smother and damage a durable but lacking Struve. I do not see Struve's guard as worrisome. Gormley by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Struve has been anything but impressive in his 1-1 UFC career thus far. Gormley is the kind of fighter that America produces in abundance, powerful, physical, good wrestling, not so polished on the feet or as a grappler, but as long as he doesn't get stupid and get into a jiu jitsu match with Struve he should take this. Gormley by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Struve is one of my favorite "prospects" in the game.  He certainly hasn't learned to use his size well in the stand-up game but he is very good on the ground.  I think too many people fall into the trap of thinking he is a striker simply because he is long.  I know Gormley is a good wrestler and powerful but Struve will catch him on the ground.  Stefan Struve by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Tough fight to call.  Struve has underwhelmed me so far, but he will end up in guard here and he's good from there.  Going to go with Struve via submission, round 2.

Nick Thomas: I'm a fan of Struve but I'm going with Gormley by TKO.

Eugene Schelfaut: Stefan Struve by submission, round 1.

Leland Roling: Gormely is a powerful wrestler with improving striking. Some reports stated he would give Dos Santos a hard time in sparring sessions along with Minotoro, which is amazing if true. In any case, he has a top notch camp in Black House, and he's a dominating wrestler from the top. Struve is going to have a hard time striking once again. Chase Gormley via TKO.

Mike Fagan:  Gormley's gonna outmuscle Struve here.  Chase Gormley by TKO, round 2.