UFC 104 Preview: Cain Velasquez's Shot at Contention Runs Through Ben Rothwell
In one of the evening's more relevant bouts on the UFC 104 main card, potential future contender Cain Velasquez (6-0, 4-0 UFC) will battle former IFL Heavyweight champion Ben Rothwell (30-6, 0-0 UFC) in a bout that will determine if Velasquez will earn a title shot against the winner of Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin or prove that Rothwell has what it takes to compete against the best talent in the UFC's heavyweight division. Velasquez easily has more to lose in this match-up, but it's a chance for him to prove his mettle against a seasoned veteran like Rothwell. Rothwell, on the other hand, stands to gain some considerable exposure and hype if he can defeat Velasquez, and he will most assuredly derail Velasquez's run to the top of the division.
Velasquez enters the contest with an undefeated record of six victories with his most recent coming at UFC 99 against French Muay Thai/kickboxer Cheick Kongo. He was vaulted into the UFC after only two professional fights due to the huge hype surrounding him as possibly being the next great heavyweight fighter. He was a two-time All-American wrestler for Arizona State while also picking up a National Junior College championship at Iowa Central Community College, which also housed Joe Soto and Jon Jones. Combine that with his power and you have the essentials for a dominating heavyweight that has the potential to be a champion.
Rothwell's progression to the UFC took the long winding road instead. Eight years and thirty-seven fights later, he'll make his debut on Saturday against a much less experienced opponent in Velasquez. He has trained under Pat Miletich for years, and he's been training with Duke Roufus for this match-up. He possesses a very well-rounded game that mostly relies on sprawling against opponents to punish them with his hands. His bread and butter comes in the striking department, but he also has the size, strength, and wrestling ability to defend takedowns and put guys on their backs as well.
The key for Rothwell is to maintain his distance, throw his jabs, and keep this fight on the feet in order to pepper Velasquez with shots. I don't see Rothwell being able to finish off Velasquez, but I do see a way for him to win each round by using his size and reach. The problem with that strategy is that it relies completely on Rothwell's takedown defense, which isn't great. He isn't a horrible grappler by any means, but he's going to find it increasingly difficult to do anything on his back against such a highly credentialed wrestler as the fight wears on.
While Cain may have some weaknesses in the striking department, Rothwell has yet to make the strides in his stand-up game to give Cain a dose of Cheick Kongo-level power. Cain's takedowns will wear on Rothwell, and he'll likely implement the same gameplan we saw against Kongo on the floor. For Rothwell, the fight really hinges on his takedown defense and an improvement in his striking, and I'm just not sure he has enough skill to pull off the upset.
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Gotta go Rothwell, size and experience advantages.
by ryanwk628 on Oct 23, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good analysis
I think the difference will be Cain’s ability to keep the fight at a fast pace.. Cain’s cardio as others have said could be his best weapon tomorrow night.
I like Cain in this fight, not sure if he will finish it but I think he will get the decision for sure.
by DeepStrike on Oct 23, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind
Rothwell will probably have 30 lbs on Cain by the time this fight goes off.
Seems like the extra weight would negate much of Cain’s wrestling advantage?
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Oct 23, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that is a total misunderstanding of how wrestling works
at the heavyweight levels of amateur wrestling there is 90lb or so gap. Cain’s been wrestling bigger guys his whole amateur career. The technique of wrestling goes a long way to eliminate size and strength differences.
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by Kid Nate on Oct 23, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't tell that
to people who don’t like Brock Lesnar, “Mr. Only Size Wins” himself.
by Trysdor on Oct 23, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Size does matter
I wrestled in HS and take Jtzu now. It’s harder to wrestle someone that has 30 lbs on you.
Uriah Faber is a phenominal wrestler. Does that mean he throws Matt Hughes around like a ragdoll?
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Oct 23, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the point is that cain has always been giving up size, it’s not something that’s going to help rothwell
by yngjzy on Oct 23, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ben Rothwell being heavier, is to cains advantage because because Ben isnt a wrestler.
by mmalogic on Oct 23, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ben really isn’t a wrestler. That’s the advantage for Cain. He doesn’t have the credentials, and all he really uses that weight for is sinking into a sprawl to stop takedowns. Sure, it can work for awhile, but Cain will get takedowns on Rothwell. Rothwell hasn’t proven to be a defensive monster when it comes to stuffing wrestlers at all in his career.
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by Leland Roling on Oct 23, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Size can come into play the entire fight in TD defense, regardless of Rothwell’s lack of credentials. He has to use his size, striking, and experience to fend off TDs and keep the fight standing, assuming he can win it standing (which is his gameplan).
Cain took shots from Kongo and survived, but only because Kongo rushed in and seceded multiple TDs. Rothwell will try to land shots and not give up easy TDs after, which he’s more equipped to do than Kongo. Whether he can first land damaging shots is the question.
by Hardcharger on Oct 23, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ben is going to get chewed up and spit out. Mark my words. He is going to get TKO’d viciously in the 2nd.
by oasis77 on Oct 23, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm cheering for Big Ben...
but I’m shocked that he’s winning this poll. I think he’s got a better shot than the opening betting odds, but I’m thinking Cain by UD.
by kid_eh on Oct 23, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I thought Cain was the favorite.
I’ve got him by uD.
by Meshuggeth on Oct 23, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am astonished with the results of this poll… Man, if the betting line reflected this there WOULD BE MONEY TO BE MADE!
Im trying to think why anyone is giving this guy a shot:
Size? His extra weight is a disadvantage for him because he’s not a wrestler and Cain is a damn good one.
Punching Power? Cain took just about the best punches Kongo could dish out and still beat his ass.
Experience? ok… Ben has more experience, but the fact that this is his first fight in the UFC – as a co-main event no less – makes this a wash…
I dont see anyway ben rothwell wins this fight.
by mmalogic on Oct 23, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I just looked at the stats and was sort of surprised. I suppose it’s the recent articles on BE that talked about Ben’s strengths, and how he was being overlooked. Which I agree with, but only on betting lines talk. As far as who’s gonna win, it’s Cain all the way. But if Rothwell can sprawl and stop the takedown, it’s his. The chances are he won’t be able to. But if he can, for the most part, Ben could easily take this.
by Dooda on Oct 23, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I got Cain by decision, but it’ll be close. The third round will be the difference where he amps the pressure and Rothwell wilts. But if Rothwell wins, it wouldn’t surprise me a ton. It’s a good match-up.
by Dooda on Oct 23, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Underrated fight, should be a good one. Velasquez will stuff any take down attempts and, I think, he’ll end it in an impressive fashion. 3rd round finish. Rothwell’s only chance is to grind out a decision and I don’t see that being likely against Velasquez. Correct me if Im wrong but Rothwell got ko’d with an uppercut by Arlovski, right? I think Cain should do the same…
by nochapi on Oct 23, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually, I don't think
Rothwell will have many takedown attempts. I could be wrong, but I believe Cain would be more likely to go for takedown, while Ben would be the one hoping to land a powerful uppercut. What do I know, I picked Ben, afterall.
by rzor on Oct 23, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow. Shocked at the poll. I always thought that the people on this website were a pretty good test group showing what the Vegas line should be doing. Aaand, I’m wrong.
Spinning out solid gold, like Rumpelstiltskin.
by Heenan on Oct 23, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it’s not that simple, Velasquez is kind of a special case.
UFC 104=> ben rothwell will UD the shit outta Velasquez.
by spectaa on Oct 23, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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