Is UFC 104 Going to Be a Bust?

Zak Woods makes the case:

UFC 104 features a light heavyweight title fight between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. The last time the UFC held an event at the Staples Center was UFC 60, which drew 14,765 attendees though only 10,347 paid.

It is no secret to UFC fans that Dana White often gives away tickets to fans usually through rendezvous that are coordinated through Twitter. Viewers of White's video blogs will certainly remember the numerous occasions that an exhausted fan would meet White at a remote location to receive tickets in scenes that bear a shocking resemblance to an addict running to meet his or her dealer.

The fact that Dana himself has already given away 3,300 tickets is a shocking development when you consider that local businesses also provide comped tickets. Will UFC 104 even break the 10,000 mark for a paid audience? (Note: the number that MMA Weekly provided could include comped tickets that local businesses give out though usually they buy tickets to hand out).

After a red hot summer that followed up the mega-success of UFC 100 with an overperforming card at UFC 101, it seems the UFC has cooled off a bit this fall. Back in the days of Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz, the Light Heavyweight division was THE money division of the sport.

Those days are gone.

There are a couple of factors at play here. For one thing, Los Angeles is a notoriously crappy sports town. The Raiders couldn't sell tickets there when they were winning Super Bowls and things have only gotten worse since then.

For another thing, while Lyoto Machida is showing promise, he's a been a pretty hard sell to MMA fans. He has only won over the hardcores in his last two fights after building a reputation as a boring counter-fighter content to win decisions on points rather than going for the kill. Selling him to the casual fanbase is a work in progress.

Another factor that's hurt the light heavyweight division is the fact that no one has successfully defended the belt since Quinton "Rampage" Jackson beat Dan Henderson in 2007 and that was Rampage's only successful belt defense.

Once upon a time this division enjoyed dominant champions -- Frank Shamrock (4 defenses), Tito Ortiz (5 defenses), Chuck Liddell (4 defenses). Since early 2007 the belt has changed hands four times.

In some ways this should still be the Rampage Jackson era. He lost the belt to Forrest Griffin in a very questionable decision. Then instead of getting an immediate rematch, he fought Wanderlei Silva while Rashad Evans got to fight for, and win, the belt.

And then rather than Rampage getting the title shot at UFC 96 in March as promised, he fought Keith Jardine when champ Rashad Evans declined the fight. That fight probably should have been delayed, but the UFC was desperate for a headliner and needed Rampage on the card. Unfortunately that fight caused Rampage some injuries and he wasn't ready when Rashad next defended his belt.

It's a pretty long string of ifs and buts, but let's face it, if UFC 104 was going to feature the wildly popular Quinton "Rampage" Jackson defending his belt after a long string of successful title defenses, I have little doubt it would be performing much better at the gate.

Oh well, I'd rather watch Lyoto Machida fight anyway, but I've never been indicative of popular taste.