Is UFC 104 Going to Be a Bust?
Zak Woods makes the case:
UFC 104 features a light heavyweight title fight between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. The last time the UFC held an event at the Staples Center was UFC 60, which drew 14,765 attendees though only 10,347 paid.
It is no secret to UFC fans that Dana White often gives away tickets to fans usually through rendezvous that are coordinated through Twitter. Viewers of White's video blogs will certainly remember the numerous occasions that an exhausted fan would meet White at a remote location to receive tickets in scenes that bear a shocking resemblance to an addict running to meet his or her dealer.
The fact that Dana himself has already given away 3,300 tickets is a shocking development when you consider that local businesses also provide comped tickets. Will UFC 104 even break the 10,000 mark for a paid audience? (Note: the number that MMA Weekly provided could include comped tickets that local businesses give out though usually they buy tickets to hand out).
After a red hot summer that followed up the mega-success of UFC 100 with an overperforming card at UFC 101, it seems the UFC has cooled off a bit this fall. Back in the days of Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz, the Light Heavyweight division was THE money division of the sport.
Those days are gone.
There are a couple of factors at play here. For one thing, Los Angeles is a notoriously crappy sports town. The Raiders couldn't sell tickets there when they were winning Super Bowls and things have only gotten worse since then.
For another thing, while Lyoto Machida is showing promise, he's a been a pretty hard sell to MMA fans. He has only won over the hardcores in his last two fights after building a reputation as a boring counter-fighter content to win decisions on points rather than going for the kill. Selling him to the casual fanbase is a work in progress.
Another factor that's hurt the light heavyweight division is the fact that no one has successfully defended the belt since Quinton "Rampage" Jackson beat Dan Henderson in 2007 and that was Rampage's only successful belt defense.
Once upon a time this division enjoyed dominant champions -- Frank Shamrock (4 defenses), Tito Ortiz (5 defenses), Chuck Liddell (4 defenses). Since early 2007 the belt has changed hands four times.
In some ways this should still be the Rampage Jackson era. He lost the belt to Forrest Griffin in a very questionable decision. Then instead of getting an immediate rematch, he fought Wanderlei Silva while Rashad Evans got to fight for, and win, the belt.
And then rather than Rampage getting the title shot at UFC 96 in March as promised, he fought Keith Jardine when champ Rashad Evans declined the fight. That fight probably should have been delayed, but the UFC was desperate for a headliner and needed Rampage on the card. Unfortunately that fight caused Rampage some injuries and he wasn't ready when Rashad next defended his belt.
It's a pretty long string of ifs and buts, but let's face it, if UFC 104 was going to feature the wildly popular Quinton "Rampage" Jackson defending his belt after a long string of successful title defenses, I have little doubt it would be performing much better at the gate.
Oh well, I'd rather watch Lyoto Machida fight anyway, but I've never been indicative of popular taste.
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For another thing, while Lyoto Machida is showing promise, he’s a been a pretty hard sell to MMA fans. He has only won over the hardcores in his last two fights after building a reputation as a boring counter-fighter content to win decisions on points rather than going for the kill. Selling him to the casual fanbase is a work in progress.
If Machida was more of a knockout artist, the casual fanbase would love the guy.
FIRE BRUCE BOCHY NOW!!!!!!
AND TAKE BRIAN SABEAN WITH HIM!!!!!
Yep. Just repeat what you did the last two fights.
Although the Rashad one has to be a KOTY candidate.
UFC 104 may be a bust because this is practically a Spike TV Fight Night card with a big main event. However there are guys on here that could produce a lot of explosive action like Anthony Johnson.
I thought UFC 96 would be a bust in terms of quality and look how that turned out.
October 11th, 2009: The day Justin Forsett became loved by Seahawks fans forever.
by SSreporters on Oct 22, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I just think Los Angeles doesn’t care about MMA. Besides the Lakers and USC, Los Angeles really doesn’t care about other sports or teams.
FIRE BRUCE BOCHY NOW!!!!!!
AND TAKE BRIAN SABEAN WITH HIM!!!!!
But they love fighting
They do it when the Lakers win or lose at the end of every season.
October 11th, 2009: The day Justin Forsett became loved by Seahawks fans forever.
by SSreporters on Oct 22, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
LA loves the Dodgers as well. We had the best attendance of 2009 for MLB.
=)
by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 23, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
LA LOVES THE DODGERS!!!
its the number one team in la for sure.
"I’m not going to stop yelling because that would mean, I lost the fight!"-Kenny Powers
shooter/cutter for AllElbows.com
i cant really say the same the about Anaheim
by The Bronzeville Bully on Oct 23, 2009 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Great point about sports in LA as a whole other then the Lakers and USC and the Raiders when they did not suck. Just look at the Dodgers in the playoff’s this year and last year there were tons of tickets still available at Chavez Ravine even ealk ups at thw window. In New York getting a ticket for a Yankee playoff game is harder then winning the dam lotto. LA is a weard sports town
And yet we still beat New York in attendance for all sports, go figure.
=)
by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 23, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
First off no one has beat the Yankee in gate and fan numbers for years now. And 2nd for total number of fans that no surprise LA gets more sence The Giants and Jets who are considered NY teams play in New Jersey. And look at how mant more pro teams you have then NY also in all 4 major sports.
You are right MMASuPreMaCy I Just looked at the 09 MLB stadium numbers. You beat us buy a whole 420 fans..But I think that should be expected sence Chavez Ravine holds between 56000 and 57500 seats and its the first year of the New Yankee stadium which only holds 51,000 which is less then there old stadium. So its a given you beat us this year. But when it comes down to Sell outs and percentage of number of fans and sell outs we still beat you in all numbers. Plus not to mention you have are sloppy seconds in Joe Torre.
For another thing, while Lyoto Machida is showing promise, he’s a been a pretty hard sell to MMA fans.
Fan response to Machida at UFC 98 says otherwise…they were chanting his name well before any action started in the 1st round.
Yeah, but that doesn’t indicate PPV draws. Also all trending information doesn’t put him as a superstar yet. Chanting is a nice first step…but we’re not at superstar level yet. We’ll see where the PPV buys are at after this event
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 22, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
but Laker tickets are expensive too right?
so people should be able to manage I think..
by Anton Tabuena on Oct 23, 2009 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I think those are reasonable enough. I know Cali has been hit hard this year, but there were thousands of seats that were $100 (face anyways) or less.
by TheAlphaNerd on Oct 23, 2009 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s not a bad price for UFC tickets. Somebody mentioned the price of Lakers tickets, they’re probably pretty close to the same and there’s 41 of those games not counting pre and post season.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Oct 23, 2009 8:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Absolutely. Dodgers had best attendance in MLB.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 23, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Ugh, all this Dodgers talk is making me nauseous. Watching them watch the Phillies celebrate made this postseason for me.
"That feeling after you win and they raise your hand... it's like you have this energy that releases from your body, and it's like you mingle with the cosmos, and you feel omnipotent"
How is LA a crappy sports town when every dodger, lakers and usc game is a virtual sell out.
by Manic Depressive on Oct 22, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
They used to have 2 NFL teams, they now have 0. That’s enough proof for me. Any town will support a team that is winning, how packed were those Dodgers or Trojans games 10 years ago?
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/attendance?year=2009
http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance
pretty damn good actually dodgers are only out of the top 5 once
the lakers are in the top ten every year
by Manic Depressive on Oct 22, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The Lakers win every year. What were the Raiders attendance figs like?
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
Your using attendance figures that are over twenty years old to prove why the LA sucks.
The Los Angeles Kings suck every year but they average 15,000+
by Manic Depressive on Oct 22, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell, New Orleans will even support the teams that are losing. It took a damn hurricane to make the Saints winners.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Oct 22, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Angels games were never packed until that World Series Year. And, lot of guys check out the Clippers game…when they can’t afford a Lakers ticket
by The Bronzeville Bully on Oct 23, 2009 5:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I used to go to Clippers games all the time
to watch the other team… that was the only way I got to see Michael Jordan during his final final final season.
In the 4th inning.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
by Mike Fagan on Oct 22, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Two Brazilian fighters
That’s a hard sell to anyone but hardcores.
█♣█
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who -- Jay-Z
I don’t think the main event is the problem, it’s that the rest of the card isn’t as great as some recent events. I mean can you really count the people who shell out hundreds of dollars to attend a UFC live as “casuals”?
Actually yes...
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 23, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
If UFC 104 is going to be a bust, I fear what people are going to call the SF show in November. I swear it’s like some writers just need attention the way they write these horrible articles that really have no validity at all.
But you have to compare SF events to other SF events and UFC to UFC. If Strikeforce can beat their previous ticket sales and get a huge cable number then it’s a success for them. Now the UFC obviously has a higher expectation and long history of sales margins. If 104 falls well below the average buyrate and ticket sales than yes, one can make the argument it was a bust. Yet it still might do better than SF event but that’s an irrelevant comparison as SF is still trying to grow their market and brand name.
by midwestbred on Oct 23, 2009 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not anymore
SF’s payroll for the CBS show is probably higher than the UFC’s for 104, their expectations for that show are huge and they need it to be a big success if they want to remain viable in the future.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Oct 23, 2009 8:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I disagree to an extent. Of course they want it to be a huge success, but even if their ticket sales don’t meet their payroll they can still make huge strides in public awareness with a good number on cable. They have plenty of Challengers cards and such to where they won’t be going bankrupt any time soon. They may not be making the millions upon millions right away but they’re getting there. SF is a lot smarter than EliteXC and won’t follow suit.
by midwestbred on Oct 23, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn’t talking just live gate, they need it to be a big success overall and the main thing is gonna be the tv ratings. They aren’t making much on those challengers shows, they need to make it on these big shows if they want to continue to grow.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Oct 23, 2009 2:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But if they aren’t making millions upon millions, why is Fedor there?
That’s the problem with the whole thing. If it bombs on CBS, then it might be a while before there’s another show on CBS. I really don’t think Strikeforce can come up with enough cash from Showtime to keep Fedor and his posse happy.
Fedor changed the definition of success for Strikeforce.
Who do you think is more marketable as a lhw champion, Shogun or Machida?
…or does it not matter at this point?
Well, at least they dont have to worry about 105.
White said the Philippines may prove one casualty of the tough financial times.
“At one point, before everything crashed, we were talking about going to the Philippines,” White said. “We had a big press conference over there. It was [expletive] crazy. A big riot broke out in the thing, people were so excited. All the sponsors ended up crashing and burning, so it didn’t happen.”
*cries *
by Anton Tabuena on Oct 23, 2009 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I provide some numbers on my post if you all care to see:
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/10/22/1096691/ufc-100-104-behind-the-numbers
=)
Using the word “bust” is a little melodramatic. It might only sell 300K to 400K, but they’ll still make an economic profit on it. It’s kinda like saying Let It Be was a bust because it didn’t sell as well as Sgt. Pepper or The White Album.
Isn’t Zak Woods the fellow who put up a post about a week before UFC 100 saying the event wasn’t going to get much media attention? How did that one work out?
That was Lorretta Hunt. Woods is not a fool
by The Bronzeville Bully on Oct 23, 2009 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Co main event is pretty unexciting
There’s nothing “wrong” with the card , but to me , I wouldn’t spend 55 bucks on this . Even if I was rich I’d like to think I’m getting my money worth (naah , if I was rich I’d just say fuck it and buy it). The co main event is pretty unexciting , it’s a decent fight but come on , Ben Rothwell ? I like the guy but I don’t think he needs to co headline a show …
you wouldn't buy this PPV?
to be hesitant to shell out $400 for tickets i get, but not to buy a Machida PPV? Boooooooooooo!
by Anton Tabuena on Oct 23, 2009 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Nope … well if you saw what I make you wouldn’t complain , I’m still in school and I work part time in a freaking school library . 55 bucks to me is a lot. If I split it with 4 guys then maybe , but seriously why not catch it on the web and pay for 106 which is a much better card ?
The problem is the UFC is creating a big difference of quality between their cards , people without a lot of money will say , why pay for X when Y is much better . I think that’s why you see a big difference with PPV buys . A lot of fans are young and work hard for little money…and they know how to catch a fight on the web…
cause piracy is illegal and you can find other ways to pay for ppv’s X and Y..
ask people to chip in, or find other friends who will be buying it, find viewing parties or bars (which are sometimes more expensive though).. etc etc..
by Anton Tabuena on Oct 23, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions
This is what happens when the co main event goes from Carwin-Cain to Cain-Rothwell
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
Since LA has a high Asian population, more could of been done to market Machida among that demographic.
by The Bronzeville Bully on Oct 23, 2009 6:15 AM EDT reply actions
UFC 98 did 635,000 buys. There was nothing else on that card either because at that point no one gave two shits about Hughes v. Serra. It is pretty safe to say that considering the continuing rise in populariy of both the UFC and Machida this one should do at least 500k buys.
L.A. is a shitty fucking city full of shitty fucking people so who cares. Hopefully an earthquake doesn’t break it off into the ocean while Machida is there. We need him around.
"He's got a great package and it's an unusual one." - Joe Rogan on Lyoto Machida @ UFC 94.
Some say the end is near, some say we’ll see Armageddon soon, certainly hope we will….
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Oct 23, 2009 11:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh well, I’d rather watch Lyoto Machida fight anyway, but I’ve never been indicative of popular taste.
Ooooh….well aren’t you just too cool for school. You’re so totally a Pitchfork-level mma fan ;) j/k
I am the bastard love child of Junie Browning and Diamond Dave Kaplan.
Does a few thousand seats even matter for the UFC? Surely the important numbers are PPV?
In some ways this should still be the Rampage Jackson era. He lost the belt to Forrest Griffin in a very questionable decision.
I respect that you have to segue between ideas but the decision was hardly “highly questionable”.

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