UFC 104 Preview: Will Cain Velasquez Emerge as a Star Against Ben Rothwell?

by Kid Nate on Oct 20, 2009 4:23 PM EDT in MMA News

Will Cain Velasquez have a star-making performance at UFC 104 or will Ben Rothwell capitalize on the weaknesses exposed by Cheick Kongo? Dave Meltzer asks the question:

Trainer Javier Mendez had noted in the past that Velasquez had been willing to stand in front of opponents and take shots in order to open things up for the takedown, and that it had worked because of his tough chin. Mendez admitted it was a bad career strategy because the more shots you take, the faster the chin wears out.

"I won't stand right in front of him," Velasquez said of Rothwell. "I have to be moving and be ready to throw, and have to use my stand-up game to set up my wrestling."
...
One of the big factors in Saturday's bout is whether Velasquez can keep the fight on the inside, where he'll have the advantage with his wrestling. He sees many similarities between Rothwell and Kongo, both being taller and primarily strikers, but Velasquez is looking at a different game plan here.

"I think his ground and his takedown defense is better than Cheick's so I don't think I'll be able to do that," he said. "But you know when we get there, I mean, we'll see."

The closer fight time comes, the more I'm liking Rothwell's chances. As I posted yesterday, Rothwell will be bringing considerable advantages in experience, size and striking, possibliy in jiu jitsu as well.

I think many fans are sleeping on Rothwell due to his loss to Andrei Arlovski at the first Affliction event. It's easy now to write off Arlovski after his dismal performance against Brett Rogers. But Arlovski at his best is a serious threat to any heavyweight and Ben Rothwell gave him an excellent fight.

Perhaps Velasquez really is all that. I certainly expect him to have the speed advantage, match Rothwell's strength despite giving up 20+ lbs and Cain's wrestling technique is so far beyond any skill set Rothwell brings to the table it's not even funny.

Regardless, this is a huge test for Cain Velasquez. Ben Rothwell is easily equally as dangerous as Gabriel Gonzaga or any heavyweight outside the top 10. We'll see who comes out looking like a contender.

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The closer fight time comes, the more I’m liking Rothwell’s chances.

Rothwell is my upset special and I would have picked Herring or Carwin over Velasquez, as well. I think he has a highly suspect chin, a complete lack of jits (which is no surprise for a wrestler) and weaker than advertised striking. Do I think he has some upside? Yeah, sure. But I’m pretty unconvinced by what he’s shown thus far, and I feel less confident in him after every passing fight.

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 7 recs

Rec'd

Astute.

Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion

by The Kittitas Kid on Oct 20, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

A highly suspect chin? It boggles my mind people that because Cain got dropped to a knee by two massive Kongo bombs, people question his chin. Seriously, the dude got hit twice, simultaneously, right on the sweet spot and managed to get Kongo on his back not two seconds later.

"He hit like a bitch."

by SMC on Oct 20, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Speaking of mind boggling...

The only times he’s been pushed on the button, he has folded like scissors across his marionette strings. Be serious..

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

You and I seem to have different definitions of the term ‘folded.’

Dos Santos folded Werdum.
Carwin folded Gonzaga.

To be fair, Velasquez got dropped to a knee, composed himself rather quickly, and went on (besides for getting dropped again, I’ll admit) to utterly dominating Kongo. A blowout.

"He hit like a bitch."

by SMC on Oct 20, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Werdum also folderd Gonzaga 2×.
=)

by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 20, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

What this has to do with the reliability of his chin is anyone's guess

I said he has a bad chin, not that he can’t outwrestle Cheick Kongo.

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand,

And my argument is that due to his chin not letting him down, he bitched Kongo.

"He hit like a bitch."

by SMC on Oct 20, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Kongo’s wrestling is atrocious. If he had better takedown defense, Cain would have certainly been TKO’d. Again, I never argued Velasquez’s wrestling abilities. To quote myself, if I could

I think he has a highly suspect chin.

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow one fight and he gets a bad chin label? Kongo is probably the most technical striker in the UFC’s HW div. Those bombs were dead on and yet he ate them and didn’t take a nap. IMO that sais his chin is strong as fuck lol. I doubt Rothwell tags him like that. Save your money guys (unless they’re just BE bucks) cause Cains taking this one.

“I promise you Cain’s never been hit as hard as Im gonna hit him”

Uhh, oh okay “yeah sure thing Harry”, becuase you can totally prove that.

Cain is faster more athletic and explosive. Not even close.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

This is fanboy stuff, guys.. Show me when he’s been pegged and took it on the chin. Kongo was landing some less than enthusiastic strikes and stunning Cain. His knees buckled each time Kongo put a glove on his face. You’re telling me Kongo is walking around with two cattle prods for apendages? Your stance is nearly indefensible. Stick to the facts instead of just blindly defending a guy you like. Observe:

That’s Kongo moving backwards, while being hit, and not visibly generating a lot of force with his hips. This gif was generated to show an example of some of the best strikes he put on Cain, and he stunned him numerous times in this bout. Show me another time that Velasquez took one on the chin and kept moving forward. You can’t— because it hasn’t happened. I don’t hate Velasquez and I don’t particularly like Rothwell. In fact, I’m fully aware that Velasquez winning would be better for the UFC and would make for more intriguing fights. But you’re just plain as day wrong in this instance.

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Dude are you looking at the gif you posted? How can you say he has a bad chin and can’t take a punch? lol

Yeah, I’m a fan of his but ’m not saying "ZOMG CAIN #1 WATCHOUT HONKEYKONG!!!1 Just saying he will beat Rothwell, not that he is teh b3st evah.

Show me another time that Velasquez took one on the chin and kept moving forward.

Umm technically he was still moving forward and getting the takedowns. Jus sayin.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Cain has great recovery and good instincts when rocked, but he stumbles there from pretty mediocre strikes.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Oct 20, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions

You be quiet. Shogun will deal with you. ;)

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

You have the potential to be pretty disappointed on Saturday! I want to see the rest of your picks. Ha..

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, Shogun is the only iffy one, IMO.

Shogun
Velasquez
Rumble
Joe Daddy
Bader

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think there’s anything matter of fact about those other picks, though. You think Rumble is a shoe in over Yoshida, Stevenson over Fisher and Bader over Shafer? Those are some tough fights..

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Sucky thing is I wont be able to come on here and gloat lol when the fights finish, I’ll be at a Halloween party Sat night. When I get back Ill watch UFC104 and DREAM12 back to back. Sunday morning Ill be here to laugh and say I told you so or to say hey he got caught. =P

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Sad

Okay d00d. No argument to motivate your point whatsoever. Enjoy the fight, I guess..

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions

lol

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Dude are you looking at the gif you posted? How can you say he has a bad chin and can’t take a punch? lol

“Dude”, I don’t think you are looking at the gif carefully. Yes, he didn’t go down but think about this :

He went down to one knee from a punch by Kongo AS HE WAS GOING BACKWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCE BEHIND THAT SHOT!!

That was all Arm-Strength that dropped Cain to one knee by Kongo. Had Kongo been able to plant his feet and throw that punch, Cain would wake up tomorrow morning.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions

The point I was making above is that Ben Rothwell won’t be throwing Arm-Punches when they fight. Just saying….

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions

dude, Kongo knocked him square on the jaw in the first punch and was fully cocked back when he hit him with the second right…for you to say Velasquez can’t take a punch is ridiculous. I think Velasquez has the speed and technical advantage but experience is Rothwell’s by landslide. I think if this fight with Rothwell goes to the ground, it’s Velasquez all the way…otherwise it could be up in the air.

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by brohamm1978 on Oct 21, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

“Massive Kongo bombs”, LOL, yeah right. Kongo was going backwards on one of them, if he had actually gotten some force behind them Cain might be dead.

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Oct 21, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Not to mention that Kongo’s feet were in one line on the edge of the mat when he threw first punch.

by dancingChicken on Oct 21, 2009 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Carwin I could see

But Herring? I don’t see Herring posing much of a threat, considering he has been taken down consistently by weaker wrestlers than Cain.

by lowellthehammer on Oct 20, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The only guys that Cain would have a problem with right now are Carwin and Brock. Why? Becuase they’re better at what Cain is good at.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

carwin’s probably not a better wrestler

by yngjzy on Oct 20, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

You seriously overrate Cain when you say things like that, man..

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Why is or was anyone sleeping on Rothwell?

Guy is 30-6 and went on a 13 fight win streak before Arlovski. I still think Cain is very talented and I’m not gonna be 1 of those people that says Cain is all hype but Rothwell is no joke.

I think Cain can do to Rothwell what he did to Kongo which is use his wrestling and pound him out for 3 rounds. Will it happen like that? I dont know but it could.

Should be a better fight than most are giving it credit for.

by bigdmmafan on Oct 20, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions

List Rothwell’s 5 best wins.

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by Mike Fagan on Oct 20, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Rothwell: Nelson, Soszynski, Soszynski, Ricco Rodriguez, Travis Fulton.
Velasquez: Kongo, Jake O’Brien, Denis Stojnic, Brad Morris, Jeremiah Constant.

Rothwell has a shittier resume than I may have realized, but it doesn’t change how I feel about Velasquez having some considerable holes in his game. My personal pick is more a reflection of that than how I think Rothwell is a world beater.

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Only problem I have with Velasquez is his lack of exp (which isn’t his fault he joined UFC pretty fast) and the fact that I’ve seen zer0 jits skill from him. Not even in training vids do I see him doing subs. What color belt is he?

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

No idea

It’s very common that wrestlers who like to box stick to those fundamentals and don’t delve too deeply into submission fighting. He probably drills escapes more than anything, but relies on top control for offense.

I STILL poop rainbows.

by Blackout612 on Oct 20, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions

List Rothwell’s 5 best wins.

1.) Who Cares
2.) Who Cares
3.) Who Cares
4.) Who Cares
5.) Mike Fagan….J/K! :)

IMO, Past Victories/Defeats don’t mean jack when that Octagon cage door is slammed shut. All it would take is Rothwell to be on his game and for Cain to underestimate him which I fully expect him to do ’cause Cain seems to like looking at his own press clippings.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Please do not compare Ben Rothwell to Gabriel Gonzaga. I’m pulling for Rothwell in this fight, but his entire repertoire barely matches the depth of Gonzaga’s ground game alone.

by Ahhhoki on Oct 20, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions

this is true

but Rothwell has one huge intangible that Gonzaga lacks — heart. There’s no quit in Ben Rothwell.

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Oct 20, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with that statement, but I don’t think it makes up for the huge gap in skill between GG and Rothwell. Gonzaga > Big Ben any day of the week.

http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com

by Tim Burke on Oct 20, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Big Ben is really someone many of us armchair-QBs can root for. He’s like the Joe Shmoe next door of the UFC right now in this coming fight.

I half-expect him to go buy himself and his friends a beer at the local bar after this fight is over, win or lose. lol. :)

KICK HIS ASS, BEN!!

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I’d agree with that. When I really start looking at this, I start to lean towards Rothwell, maybe Cain by decision if it goes there, otherwise Rothwell by 2nd round stoppage. The guy hits hard and knows how to fight.

by Dooda on Oct 20, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions

Rothwell is no pushover but I’ve got Cain in this.

by Meshuggeth on Oct 20, 2009 5:06 PM EDT reply actions

Since the fight was announced, I picked Rothwell.

by MMASuPreMaCy on Oct 20, 2009 5:23 PM EDT reply actions

If i was a gambler I’d put money on Rothwell, but Cain still takes this. I can see a less than impressive Gray Maynard-style performance from Velasquez

by StevenGiles on Oct 20, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions

Don’t know who Gray Maynard is but if it refers to running away like a scared cat, then I agree.

Cain don’t want none of Mr. Rothwell’s Neighborhood Fist.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Don’t know who Gray Maynard is

Interesting you would know Rothwell and not Gray? You should definately check out Gray’s last fight against Roger Huerta at the last UFN.

'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko

by Well Read Idiot on Oct 21, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions

If I said your name, would it be considered a personal attack? lol. J/K.

I never said I knew Rothwell. I never saw any part of the IFL. I’m just saying that everyone here is sleeping on Rothwell and automatically ASSUMING Cain will run over him easily. I think it is a very good possibility it will turn out the other way around.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

This fight will show much more than the Carwin fight would have...

Ben Rothwell’s experience will be a big factor in telling if Cain was just a product of UFC hype machine?

by AfroSamurai on Oct 20, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions

idk why you guys are saying velazquez has a suspect chin

just because he got dropped every time kongo laid hands on him, I mean should a fighter really be expected to stay up after being hit by a hard shot? he’s not superhuman….

but seriously, I wish I could bet some real money on this fight, awesome odds and I believe rothwell has the best chance of winning.

by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 20, 2009 6:45 PM EDT reply actions

I certainly expect him to have the speed advantage, match Rothwell’s strength despite giving up 20+ lbs and Cain’s wrestling technique is so far beyond any skill set Rothwell brings to the table it’s not even funny.

Yet…

The closer fight time comes, the more I’m liking Rothwell’s chances

C’mon Nate.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 6:48 PM EDT reply actions

i think he's being tempted

by the odds on this fight, lol

by Hendo_One-Shot on Oct 20, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

lol maybe

Meh, I’ve never really bet some mula on fights so I don’t look at the odds.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

odds matter very much!

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Oct 20, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

FLIP-FLOP

FLIP

FLOP. :)

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Seriously, though…Bet half of your money on Big Ben and let it ride!! wooooo!!

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions

seeing Kongo back up and drop Cain was not confidence-inspiring, i have to say. and Kongo had to back up the whole time b/c his ground game/takedown defense has been terrible in the past. Rothwell I suspect will do better at keeping it up, which is bad news bears for rothwell. he managed to get arlovski down and took some torrid shots but kept on coming…and regardless of arlovski’s now suspect chin, that dude hits hard when he connects. period. i don’t see cain dropping rothwell, but i do see rothwell staying off the bottom a good bit more and connecting as much as cheick if not more, and while not backing up/backpedalling.

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by theworldsoldestsport on Oct 20, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions

Rothwell I suspect will do better at keeping it up, which is bad news bears for rothwell.

I’m sure if Rothwell was fighting himself, it would definitely be bad. LOL! :)

But seriously, I see your scenario at your very last sentence happening more likely and Rothwell winning by Decision. I preferably would want to see him KO Cain (I dislike that marketing promo where he walks around the ring after a victory with a arms-folded-like-he-thinks-he’s-all-that and a stupid fake-tough-guy look) but Cain will get on his bicycle and stay away from Big Ben.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions

I have no idea who's going to win this fight.

We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.

by Anthony Pace on Oct 20, 2009 8:38 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

What everyone THINKS will happen : Cain beats Rothwell

What WILL happen : Rothwell KO’s Cain.

THE END.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I like your candor.

I like to pick a side when I watch a fight, and I am certainly putting money on Cain. He will take down Rothwell at will, and I dare say will have worked on his GnP ALOT since the non-finish in the Kongo fight.

Cain by ref stoppage in the 3rd.

'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko

by Well Read Idiot on Oct 21, 2009 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions