UFC 104 Preview: Ben Rothwell Vows to Cost the Oddsmakers Against Cain Velasquez

by Kid Nate on Oct 19, 2009 6:23 PM EDT in MMA News

"The way I look at it," said Rothwell, a 2-1 underdog according to most oddsmakers, "I'm going to make some gamblers some money. [Cain's] got a lot of hype behind him and that's why he's the favorite. That's fine with me. People are going to make some money off this one."

...

"He seems like a hard-nosed guy. He's got the wrestling background. He's got a lot of hype behind him and he's feeling good right now," Rothwell said. "He's had everything go his way. But I'm going to hit him and make him uncomfortable and we'll see how he does when things don't go his way. I'm going to be the guy that can actually stop takedowns, the guy who can handle him on the ground, and the guy who's going to hit him harder than he's ever been hit before."

Rothwell also disputes Cain Velasquez' claims that he just made small mistakes against Cheick Kongo that caused him to get clipped by Kongo:

But Rothwell, a 6-foot-5 heavyweight who prefers to stand and bang, and has dispatched more than one opponent with his heavy hands and feet, is convinced that Velasquez's troubles on the feet were more than just a momentary lapse.

"He says he doesn't know what happened," said Rothwell. "I do. He got hit. He got hit by a 230-pound guy going backwards. He's really not going to know what happened when I hit him. And I am going to hit him."

For my part, I understand Velasquez being favored. He's a blue-chip wrestler with enormous athletic talent and power. Between his athletic gifts being superior to Rothwell's and his skills as a wrestler being on a significantly higher plane than Rothwell's I can see him being a slim favorite.

But 2-1? Rothwell has a huge edge in experience, a considerable size advantage and a big edge in technique and power on the feet. Personally, I'd hesitate to bet against him at these odds, especially when he's only had six pro fights.

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Comments

Gambling

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought the majority of bets (regardless of what kind of sporting event it is) usually are on the favorites, so if the underdog wins, doesn’t the oddsmakers (casinos) also win?

by m-e-s-s-i-a-h on Oct 19, 2009 6:30 PM EDT reply actions

Not necessarily. The house tries to make sure that the bets on both sides are even. Not even in that there is an equal amount, but equal in that the bets won are a wash over the long run.

But you’re never going to see completely “fair” odds. Even in fights that are “even” odds wise, the closest odds you’re going to see is -110 on both sides, which is that you have to bet $110 to win $100. If there is an equal amount of bets on both sides, the house wins regardless. And that’s without all the fees and such.

by jacksiwel on Oct 19, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

“The house tries to make sure that the bets on both sides are even.”

This isn’t always the case. Books will take unbalanced action if they think they ahve an edge.

Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Oct 19, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Like any time Machida fights

"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn

by Day Man on Oct 20, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions

So whats his excuse gonna be when Cain tools him? lol So far I’m liking Rothwell though. He’s really hyping this fight up. Too bad he will end up bloody and beaten.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 19, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions

Meh. I still have doubts about Velasquez.

The key in the match will be.

"Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity." - Bullet Tooth Tony
@deowade

by Damon O. on Oct 19, 2009 6:32 PM EDT reply actions

lol You replied to the story as if Cain were the one doing all the talking instead of Rothwell. I’m there with ya on still having some doubts but I think he lays Rothwell out. Cain should beat Ben on heart alone. UFC giving Cain a ‘shitle tot’ too soon is what Im worried about. He’s not ready even though he sais he is. Carwin and Brock would steamroll him.

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 19, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

lol I wasn't really paying attention when I was typing (Watching Ninja Warrior)

I wouldn’t be surprised if Cain lays him out, but I’m leaning towards Big Ben schooling him. I agree Cain needs 2 or 3 more fights before he should even be able smell a Title Shot. Lesnar would smear him across the mat and Carwin would straight up knock his block off à la Jason Takes Manhattan.

"Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity." - Bullet Tooth Tony
@deowade

by Damon O. on Oct 19, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I threw a few bucks on Ben.

Cain’s stand-up looked awful in the Kongo fight, and he got tagged repeatedly. I also don’t buy this proving his chin, Kongo’s a great technical striker but his hands aren’t that heavy (and Cain’s failure to finish the ground-game-challenged Kongo despite having him under control most of the fight wasn’t very impressive).

That said, it’s entirely possible that Cain just takes Rothwell down, controls him w/ superior wrestling and batters him. I’m usually wrong about these things anyway, especially if there’s money involved.

by WanderleiNoooooo! on Oct 19, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions

Not to mention him barely being able to finish Stojnić.

"Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity." - Bullet Tooth Tony
@deowade

by Damon O. on Oct 19, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

From what I saw in the hype video, he kicks Arlovski’s ass.

Keep firing Assholes!

Never trust a man with no shirt on.

by Ubernoober on Oct 19, 2009 6:40 PM EDT reply actions

If Kongo was smart enough not to clinch a couple of times after stunning Cain, he would have won that fight. Rothwell isn’t nearly as hopeless as some people make him out to be in this fight.

by jacksiwel on Oct 19, 2009 6:54 PM EDT reply actions

People underestimate Rothwell because of two things :

1.) He’s an unknown and looks like one of those WWE “Jobbers” you used to see back in the day.

and

2.) He’s from the IFL where Roy Nelson was Champ…people see Roy Nelson and what he looks like…..People’s Opinion : Rothwell = Stepping Stone for Cain.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

i’ve read that ben looks better and trained harder than ever for this fight. his trainer said that alot of fans will be surprised when ben steps on the scale, that he has totally reshaped his body with weights and nutrition. he said that he doesn’t even look the same as when he fought arlovski. i guess we will see come weigh-in time.

by bdw on Oct 19, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions

You heard this from his manager Monte Cox, who may as well be a carnival game operator. He’s always full of shit.

by oasis77 on Oct 20, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Considering the hype I haven’t been that impressed with Cain. He showed his standup might be suspect in the Kongo fight and I think Rothwell will beat him on the feet if he can stop the takedowns.

by Sliup on Oct 19, 2009 8:17 PM EDT reply actions

if he can stop the takedowns

He won’t.

'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko

by Well Read Idiot on Oct 20, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

You sound so certain of that….

….have you ever seen Rothwell fight? I doubt it.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Cain has name power. His name just sounds scary. Cain (biblical murderer) Velasquez (which sounds like the villain in a Clint Eastwood movie). If his name was Chuck Schultz the hype wouldn’t flow that naturally.

by toxic on Oct 19, 2009 10:20 PM EDT reply actions

Well after the fight, he will remember the name Ben Rothwell. He’ll be seeing him in his nightmares after he absolutely shows him that he’s not quite ready for the big-time.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Experienced is HIGHLY overrated.

Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com

by Mike Fagan on Oct 19, 2009 10:27 PM EDT reply actions

overrated but not any more unimportant than skill and heart is.

I believe Rothwell has the skill necessary to put Cain in his place when the time comes.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Cain’s ever improving skill set have been impressively illustrated. His chin was in question. That has been answered. His power is in quesion. We’ll see how he handles that issue. I like Cain’s superior grapling and control over ben’s puncher’s chance any old day of the week.

by naturalist on Oct 20, 2009 12:11 AM EDT reply actions

While his chin looks very solid he striking defense is now a pretty solid question

"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn

by Day Man on Oct 20, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions

He’s moving his head pretty well. Kongo is a precision striker so it shouldn’t be surprisng that he made contact with cain’s face a couple times. I think the main issue with striking defense will be quantity not quality. Meaning, he shouldn’t be on the feet that long anyway.

by naturalist on Oct 20, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

You’re right. He’d be looking up at the lights wondering what truck just hit him after Rothwell KTFO’s him into the next PPV.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Heh, afer seeing the countdown. It looks like Rothwell is trying to convince himself that he can beat Cain. But make no mistake Cain’s gonna rape his ass something nasty. Total domination. Sig bet anyone? ;)

SHOGUN WILL SLAY THE DRAGON!!!
SHOGUN TO BE THE NEW LHW CHAMP!!!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."

by xFenixKnightx on Oct 20, 2009 12:14 AM EDT reply actions

I’ll take on Machida if you’re in the mood for charity

"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn

by Day Man on Oct 20, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

No problem, sig bet it is.

UFC 104=> ben rothwell will UD the shit outta Velasquez.

by spectaa on Oct 20, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions

One thing I’ve learned throughout watching MMA/UFC and watching others make bets and guarantees : Nothing ever turns out the way you expect it.

I say Cain is given a reality-check by Rothwell. Just ‘cause Cain is absolutely superb in his skillset, doesn’t mean you automatically discount Ben’s skillset.

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Cain’s striking defense looked horrid against Kongo, but Cheick’s accuracy had a lot to do with that. Rothwell is big & hits hard, but he is more of a durable brawler than a precise technician. He’ll hit Cain, but I doubt he’ll hit him as cleanly as Kongo did.

On the other hand, if Rothwell does manage to hurt Cain with a strike, he woin’t be as easy as Kongo to take down. Even when Velasquez was on queer street he was able to put Kongo on his back with little effort. Rothwell is a gigantic guy with solid takedown defense. If he can sprawl his way out of a takedown after hurting Cain, he could pounce on him and finish.

I think Cain will win this fight, but given the odds, Rothwell is certainly worth putting a few dollars on.

by Steve4192 on Oct 20, 2009 8:28 AM EDT reply actions

I see that one be boring as hell lay and pray from Cain or a KO from Rothwell. I think Ben’s ground defense should be enough to limit the damage Cain can do. If Cain wants to stand with Rothwell , it will be lights out pretty quickly, because Cain’s stand up defense sucks a huge one.

by blawa on Oct 20, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions

Hey Ben, there’s a reason there’s so much hype behind Cain..he’s a monster.

I have seen this scenario before. Guy with a weak overall record of quality oppnents with inflated wins due to fighting so many cans comes in thinking he has a chance. There’s a reason Cain has been in the UFC at a young experiance level as opposed to a guy like Rothwell who has over 30 fights.

Cain is going to dominate this fight.

by oasis77 on Oct 20, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions

Cain’s actually one of the “smaller” of the new breed of HWs at 6’1, 240lbs. So he’s not really a “monster” by any means, at least in a physical sense .

I am the bastard love child of Junie Browning and Diamond Dave Kaplan.

by The_Gaijin on Oct 20, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Obviously not, but his fighting spirit is monsterous.

by oasis77 on Oct 20, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Is he really 240? Rothwell looks like a Giant compared to him.

"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn

by Day Man on Oct 20, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I know Fagan said that Experience is overrated but Rothwell isn’t some jabronie who has a losing record and just serves as a stepping-stone fighter out for a quick buck.

Cain will find that out soon enough. I can’t wait!

by BNTHIS on Oct 21, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Ben convinced me

If Cain can beat Ben then hell yea he is worth all the hype, but I just think Ben is going to spoil the plan. I hope… :|