Bloody Elbow January MMA Meta-Rankings: Light Heavyweight

by Richard Wade on Jan 9, 2009 9:12 PM EST in Rankings Comment 38 comments

Fighter	Points	Promotion	Last Rank
1. Rashad Evans	537	UFC	4
2. Quinton Jackson	517	UFC	2
3. Forrest Griffin	511	UFC	1
4. Lyoto Machida	493	UFC	3
5. Chuck Liddell	422	UFC	6
6. Wanderlei Silva	405	UFC	5
7. Keith Jardine	373	UFC	7
8. Thiago Silva	337	UFC	8
9. Mauricio Rua	259	UFC	9
10. Luis Arthur Cane	232	UFC	11
11. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	225	Affliction/WVR	10
12. Vladimir Matyushenko	220	Affliction	12
13. Rich Franklin	181	UFC	13
14. Renato Sobral	170	Affliction/Strikeforce	16
15. Dan Henderson	170	UFC	14
16. Tito Ortiz	159	Unsigned	15
17. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou	128	Affliction	17
18. Brandon Vera	93	UFC	18
19. Matt Hamill	88	UFC	21
20. Stephan Bonnar	80	UFC	19
21. Steve Cantwell	73	UFC	23
22. Ricardo Arona	72	Unsigned	22
23. Rafael Calvacante	71	???	20
24. Jared Hamman	69	???	26
25. Goran Reljic	66	UFC	24

Commentary by Kid Nate: #1 Rashad Evans jumped to the top of the rankings with his TKO win over #3 Forrest Griffin at UFC 92. Quite a meteoric rise for Rashad, who was ranked #8 as recently as the August meta-rankings. But Rashad got there the old fashioned way -- he earned it.

#2 Quinton "Rampage" Jackson held his position by KTFO'ing #6 Wanderlei Silva at the same event. This sets up Jackson for a shot at Evans' title, although he claims he'd rather get his revenge on #3 Forrest Griffin before trying to reclaim the title.

Poor #4 Lyoto Machida. He was meta-ranked as high as #2 back in June before the title started trading hands. Now even if he beats #8 Thiago Silva at UFC 94, he still won't get a title shot.

It's still unclear who's next for #5 Chuck Liddell. Rumors he'll face #1 Middleweight Anderson Silva at UFC 100, or rematch #6 Wanderlei Silva or even #9 Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (assuming Rua beats Mark Coleman at UFC 93) have all been floated.

#7 Keith Jardine won't be his next opponent, despite Chuck requesting a rematch. Jardine will instead be fighting #10 Luis Arthur Cane at UFC 97.

If the January 24th Affliction show actually happens, #11 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will face #12 Vladimir Matyushenko and try to avenge his 2002 decision loss to "the Janitor." On that same cross-your-fingers-but-don't-hold-your-breath-that-it'll-happen card, #14 Renato "Babalu" Sobral is scheduled to face #17 Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. You can say what you want about their disastrous business decisions, but the Affliction guys do seem to pay attention to the meta-rankings.

NOTE: The Meta-Rankings are not the subjective opinion of the BloodyElbow team, but rather a compilation of the rankings of over twenty leading MMA web sites. It is our opinion that these are the most informative MMA rankings anywhere.

Based on the premise that opinions are like assholes, everybody has one and they all stink. instead of putting up our own subjective fighter rankings, we compile and average the rankings of every source we could find online.

The goal is to show how the MMA community rates the fighters, not to bore you with our opinions.

Be sure and look at the points, they're a much more telling number than the ranking.

A total of 47 fighters were ranked in the top 25 by one source or another, for reasons of sanity I only track the top 25 most highly rated fighters.

25 points are awarded for a first place ranking, 16 for a 10th place ranking, 1 for a 25th place ranking. A formula is used to "normalize" the data so all fighters are awarded points from those lists that do not include a full 25 fighters. Fuller explanation below.

Rankings were compiled from the following sites: 411 Mania (12/11), Cage Potato (12/28), Fight Matrix (1/4), Fight Magazine, Five Ounces of Pain (1/4), Full Contact Fighter, Inside Fighting, Inside MMA, MMA 4 Real (1/7), MMA Blog, MMA ELO (1/5), MMA Fighting (1/4), MMA Playground (1/7), MMA Rocks (1/4), MMA Torch (11/24), MMA Weekly (1/7), MMA/VT, Sherdog (1/7), Sports Illustrated (1/6), TAGG Radio, Total MMA, WAMMA (12/17).

The normalization scheme as explained by JCS of FightMatrix is here:

The "normalization number" (new name) would be:

120
divided by
(Total Fighters Found in Any List minus 10)

Every fighter found somewhere else, but on a Top 10 list would be assigned this number.

The "normalization" number would not apply to a fighter not found on a Top 25 list. They would simply get 0.

So the process would be:

Do all of the Top 25 lists first, #1 = 25, #2 = 24…. #24 = 2, #25 = 1
Do all of the Top 10 lists, same scoring structure.. stops at #10 = 16

Figure out that normalization variable.

Fill in the normalization variable to all fighters not found in the Top 10 lists, but found elsewhere.

Do your totals and rank.

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Comments

I don’t know if Liddell will be hanging around in that #5 spot for very much longer. Maybe this ATT thing will change his game. At his age you start getting that “old dog – new tricks” syndrome going on and all the training in the world might not be able to get you out of how you’ve always fought once he is in the octagon.

by donkeypunch on Jan 9, 2009 9:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And Rich Franklin ranks higher at 205 than Hendo and less than Hendo at 185. Hmmm.

by donkeypunch on Jan 9, 2009 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s because more sites rank Franklin at 205 and rank Henderson at 185. This is one instance where the meta-ranking methodology does introduce a distortion.

by Kid Nate on Jan 9, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he actually doesnt need to learn new tricks. He just has to use the other tricks that he already knows, instead of relying on that one punch KO.

http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/

by Anton Tabuena on Jan 10, 2009 8:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jardine can’t catch a break. He KOs Griffin, gets KOed by Alexander, beats Liddell, gets KOed by Silva, and dully beats Vera (if he had accurate punches, he would have finished Vera). More than most fighters, his success depends on his opponent’s style, it would appear. Now he’s getting the aggressive Cane, so I’m gonna predict a TKO loss.

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett

by themachiavellian on Jan 9, 2009 9:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Franklin above Babalu because he beat Matt Hamill makes me sad. Nice to see Hamman getting a little recognition though. Something tells me Mo will hit the top 25 before the midpoint of 2009.

by smoogy on Jan 9, 2009 9:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I respectively...

Disagree with Liddell’s place… I’d put lil nog over chuck.

by poundnground on Jan 9, 2009 10:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Liddell no higher than 10, and Rogerio is more deserving than, say, Luis Cane or Thiago Silva.

by smoogy on Jan 9, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At least..

Chuck has a recent win over Wanderlei. Nog hasn’t done much of anything in years.

by JCS_FM on Jan 9, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He took a little time off to win a bronze in the Pan-Am games for boxing, then went 3-0 in 2008, albeit not against terrific competition. Considering how poorly Liddell and Silva have done recently, I think Rogerio can be put anywhere from 7th to 10th. He has the big wins (Henderson, Overeem x 2) and the physical skills to contend.

by smoogy on Jan 9, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You don’t get points for taking time off for boxing, and any of the top 20-30 would have gone 3-0 against the fighters Nogueira fought this year. Maybe he can still contend against any of the top ten, but you gotta prove it to keep the position.

by Michaelthebox on Jan 10, 2009 3:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

You don’t move up for inactivity or winning against sub-par opponents. Likewise, you shouldn’t move down for losing to elite competition. It’s extremely unfair for the UFC fighters VS fighters from the second tier organizations. Fighters need to fight top ten competition in order to break into the top ten. Otherwise, you have guys ranked high for destroying cans, cue Ben Rothwell and Barnett.

by cyph on Jan 10, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

Sorry, but everyone else drops losing to elite competition and gains from beating cans. Taking your argument Ben Rothwell shouldn’t have dropped losing to Arlovski since AA was ranked significantly higher.

Trust me, UFC fighters already have advantage to counter a loss in the polls. There wins move them up faster than wins in another promotion. If Frank Mir beats Nog in a Dream event he is being considered as Top 10 and not Top 5, especially considering Nog’s poor performance.

by bignerd on Jan 10, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Liddell at #5

I have an even larger issue with Wanderlei Silva at #6.

This poll was more accurate 9 months ago. BTW give Anderson Silva another couple bottom teen light heavy bouts and hell have to be entertained as a top 10.

"You Went Full Retard, Man - Never Go Full Retard." --Kirk Lazarus

by Ovale Fan on Jan 10, 2009 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How is Arona even allowed to be ranked?

by Discman2 on Jan 9, 2009 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think people just really respect his posture.
I know I do.

by Simco on Jan 9, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

for Rashad to be #1 Tito must be somewhere in the top 20. At least I hope that’s the reasoning behind it.. even though I don’t agree with it.

Kuwabara Kuwabara

by J. B. Maddox on Jan 9, 2009 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yep, I’ll say it: yay for Zuffa totalitarianism! What other division can you just pick two fighters in the top ten and say ‘that fight can happen’?

by subo on Jan 9, 2009 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Its amazing what a win over Matt Hammel will do for ya!

YAMATO DAMASHII

by R.T. on Jan 10, 2009 12:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Most computerized systems

Give him credit for his accomplishments at 185. And rightfully so.

by JCS_FM on Jan 10, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

the problem with Rampage getting a shot is they’re not positive he can avoid jail time. They must not be positive or they’d have announced it already, I figure.
So Lyoto may well get a shot in the interim, with Page having to take a filler fight against a semi-contender.

-- I've misplaced my pants.

by garth on Jan 10, 2009 1:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That got settled today. Rampage’s sentencing is in a year, and he’ll probably get no jail time if he stays out of trouble. That was probably exactly what they needed to here, Rampage will probably get the next shot.

by Phildo on Jan 10, 2009 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

“#14 Renato "Bablu” Sobral "

spelled babalu wrong :(

The only person Chuck has beat in two years is Wanderlei and he is #5 in the world? Haha what? His losses to the hands of Jardine and Rampage, and considering Chuck’s other last win came on december 30th 2006 over Tito Ortiz, I think these meta rankings are a tad fraudulent.

Dan Henderson beat Wanderlei Silva and Rousimar Palhares in the same time frame and his losses came at the hands of Rampage and Anderson Silva.

So I guess a victory over Tito Ortiz two years ago catapults you 10 spots over Henderson who just beat one of the best BJJ prospects of 08 in Rousimar Palhares in September.

My case for meta rankings being flawed.

by DirtyML on Jan 10, 2009 1:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

And I know Henderson fights at 185 and 205, but still, his accomplishments at 205 alone are more significant.

by DirtyML on Jan 10, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The issue is that so many sites only rank him at 185. If he was ranked at only one weight class he would be higher in that class.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Jan 10, 2009 4:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for pointing out the Bablu thing.

by Richard Wade on Jan 10, 2009 4:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Thiago silva is going to put Machida to sleep and shock the world. Does anyone else think the same or not? This division is so wide open and I think everyone is sleeping on one of the most dangerous guys in the division and that is Thiago Silva. Im not really even a fan of his I just think he is going to shock the internet world. I think Bonner is another guy to watch out for at 205.

by mlzybaby on Jan 10, 2009 3:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The thing is, if Machida sticks to his usual gameplan of extreme counter punching then Silva is going to have a hard time of doing anything, just like everything else. Silva’s stand-up has a lot of holes in it, and he leaves himself open constantly. Silva’s bread and butter is his jiu jitsu and I doubt he has the wrestling to get Machida down, if he even manages to catch him.

by SamCupitt on Jan 10, 2009 6:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thiago Silva: Not...

Don’t want to fan the flames of the Machida haters, but I don’t see Thiago Silva shocking the world against Machida. Silva is a strong match, with good skills, but Lyoto Machida’s style is tailor-made for outscoring brawlers like Thiago. Silva has already stated he will come forward, and pursue Machida if Machida won’t stand and go toe to toe. Might as well compose the epitaph now, as no one has been succeful with this strategy against Machida, who slips, jabs, leg kicks, and knees his way to victory. No, he does not stand toe to toe, and no, he does not deliver one punch knockouts, but the guy is an artist in the ring, who demonstrates true martial arts in this sport application, showcasing an almost psychic sense of where the attack is coming from and how to avoid it. Recently watched a rebroadcast of Machida’s bout against Tito Ortiz, and Tito was pursuing smoke all three rounds, while getting bruised, bloodied, and kneed to the canvas. Thiago Silva is a good fighter, and I think this will be a fine match, but I expect Lyoto Machida to exit the octagon 14-0, one step closer to an inevitable title shot.

by mushinsan on Jan 11, 2009 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Matt Hamill should not even be on the list, what a punching bag!!!

by HEELHOOK on Jan 10, 2009 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh, please

He’s a legit fighter, and young and still developing. He’s got a lot of natural tools, works hard, and has won the majority of his fights. His two losses are the two times he’s tried to step up in competition, and a lot of people still argue the loss to Bisping. And it’s not like he’s listed in the top 10; he’s right where he should be. Are you saying you wouldn’t at least give him a shot against Bonnar or Vera?

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Jan 10, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, a fight with Vera could be a decent scrap. Good call.

by Rundownloser on Jan 10, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of people in this division are getting by on name recognition alone…

by dbcb on Jan 10, 2009 3:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Chuck, Wandy need to drop!

and #6 . . . ya people need to update their rankings, it’s not 12 months ago. I agree, name recognition can only go so far, soon or later you need to post a win. Chuck doesn’t even have an excuse as to why he is not fighting, he is healthy and his promotion puts on plenty of events so what is the deal?

by bignerd on Jan 10, 2009 11:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

how did #5 translate into 1.?

by bignerd on Jan 10, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There’s something goofy about lists. Use preview when you’re starting a sentence with a number.

by Richard Wade on Jan 11, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

klown's "objective" rankings

1. Evans
2. Griffin
3. Jackson
4. Henderson
5. Liddell
6. W. Silva
7. Jardine
8. Rua
9. Machida
10. Ortiz

Henderson is fighting at 205, so it makes sense to rank him there. At 205, he holds a knockout win over Silva, so at the very least, he gets ranked above him. It seems like that fight happened a long time go, but they’ve each only had 3 fights since then.

Henderson must also be ranked above Liddell. Although they’ve never fought each other, they have 2 common opponents: Jackson and Silva. While both have lost to Jackson, Henderson put up a serious fight for 5 round while Liddell was knocked unconscious in seconds. While both beat Silva, Liddell had to grind out a decision while Henderson scored a stunning knockout. In both cases, Henderson was more impressive, and thus earns the higher ranking.

Perhaps my most controversial ranking is of Ortiz at #10. We all know he’s declined; the question is, can he hang with this crowd? The answer is yes, if we look at the evidence. For one thing, he has faced tougher opposition than anyone else on the list. He’s fought 5 of the Top 10 LHWs. Only Liddell has faced as many Top 10 LHWs.

Ortiz gone the distance #1, #2, #6 and #9, for a record of 2-1-1, although all were decisions that could have gone either way (except perhaps the last one.) Then there are 2 TKOs to Liddell in his prime. And since when is it held against a fighter to lose to Liddell and Machida?

Ironically, Machida owes his presence in the Top 10 only to Ortiz’s Top 10 status. Besides Ortiz, Machida has beaten no one in the LHW Top 10. So if you don’t want Ortiz in your Top 10, you have no case for putting Machida’s name on the list, since he’s fought not one of those guys! Being undefeated means nothing if you’ve only fought mid-level competition. The only thing that counts is holding victories over opponents ranked higher than yourself. For this reason, T.Silva cannot be ranked in the Top 10.

The high rankings of Machida and T.Silva among so many commentators represents a “subjective” ranking system. These guys have not beaten Top 10 competition and certainly don’t belong in the Top 5. To rank them there is pure speculation- it signifies the ranker’s subjective opinion that Machida “would” beat so and so, or T.Silva “could” beat so and so. But rankings cannot be based on hypothetical scenarios. It only depends on who you beat.

Here are some upcoming fights that could impact the rankings:

Henderson vs Franklin
Franklin’s ranking with MMA Weekly is absurd. Beating Hamill does not launch you up the ranks. Since Franklin is unranked, a Henderson win should have no effect on the rankings. If Franklin wins, however, he takes Henderson’s spot at #4. Henderson falls to #5 and Ortiz drops off the chart.

Machida vs T.Silva
Assuming Franklin enters the Top 10 by beating Henderson, a Silva win would earn him the #10 spot, and knock Machida out of the picture. A Machida win has no effect on the ranking.

Jardine vs Cane
A Jardine win leads to no change, but a victory for Cane would shoot him to #7.

Rua vs Coleman
No change if Rua wins, but if it’s Coleman, he would lay claim to the #8 spot, among the world’s best LHWs.

by klown on Jan 12, 2009 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

post-UFC 93

1. Evans
2. Griffin
3. Jackson
4. Henderson
5. Liddell
6. W.Silva
7. Jardine
8. Rua
9. Machida
10. Ortiz
11. Cane
12. Sokoudjou
13. Nogueira
14. Arona
15. T.Silva

by klown on Jan 18, 2009 6:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs