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Bloody Elbow January MMA Meta-Rankings: Welterweight

Fighter PointsPromotionLast Rank
1. Georges St. Pierre 525 UFC 1
2. Thiago Alves 498
UFC
2
3. Jon Fitch 480
UFC 3
4. Josh Koscheck 452
UFC
5
5. Jake Shields 441
???
4
6.  Diego Sanchez 403
UFC
6
7. Matt Hughes 381
UFC
7
8. Carlos Condit 359
WEC
8
9. Matt Serra 290
UFC
9
10. Karo Parisyan 261
UFC 10
11. Mike Swick 220
UFC
11
12.  Nick Thompson 148
WVR
12
13. Marcus Davis 137
UFC
16
14. Dustin Hazelett 129
UFC
18
15. Brock Larson 128
WEC
13
16. Jay Hieron 107
Affliction
15
17. Chris Wilson 92
UFC
19
18. Dan Hardy 89
UFC
20
19. Chris Lytle 86
UFC
21
20. Nick Diaz 84
???
23
21. Hayato Sakurai 83
DREAM
14
22. Yoshiyuki Yoshida 75
UFC
16
23. Brad Blackburn 71
UFC
25
24. Anthony Johnson 65
UFC
NR
25. Akihiro Gono 62
UFC
24

Commentary by Kid Nate:  The biggest movement on this months welterweight metas comes as a result of #4 Josh Koscheck having KTFO'd #22 Yoshiyuki Yoshida right out of the top 20 at UFN 16. Koscheck will be fighting again quick fast in a hurry, against one-and-done UFC newbie Paulo Thiago at UFC 95. #6 Diego Sanchez will headline that same event while making his lightweight debut against Joe Stevenson.

Otherwise the division has basically been in suspended animation, waiting for #1 Georges St. Pierre to test himself against #1 lightweight B.J. Penn at UFC 94 on January 31.

On the undercard of that epic fight, #3 Jon Fitch will be facing #25 Akihiro Gono while #2 Thiago Alves waits for the winner of Penn/GSP. #7 Matt Hughes and #9 Matt Serra will face each other sometime in the spring, possibly in May.

#8 Carlos Condit will likely defend his WEC belt against #15 Brock Larson in March. If he can fend off the game Larson for a second time, Condit will have utterly cleaned out the WEC 170lb division. Not sure what makes sense for him from there. I think its time for him to step up to the UFC.

No word on the fate of #5 Jake Shields. Sadly, its looking like he'll be trapped in the EliteXC morass for some time to come.

NOTE: The Meta-Rankings are not the subjective opinion of the BloodyElbow team, but rather a compilation of the rankings of over twenty leading MMA web sites. It is our opinion that these are the most informative MMA rankings anywhere.

Star-divide

Be_meta_ww_chart_1_january_2009_medium Be_meta_ww_chart_2_january_2009_medium

Based on the premise that opinions are like assholes, everybody has one and they all stink. instead of putting up our own subjective fighter rankings, we compile and average the rankings of every source we could find online.

The goal is to show how the MMA community rates the fighters, not to bore you with our opinions.

Be sure and look at the points, they're a much more telling number than the ranking. There's clearly a huge gulf between the top 9 fighters and those that follow.

A total of 49 fighters were ranked in the top 25 by one source or another, for reasons of sanity I only track the top 25 most highly rated fighters.

25 points are awarded for a first place ranking, 16 for a 10th place ranking, 1 for a 25th place ranking. A formula is used to "normalize" the data so all fighters are awarded points from those lists that do not include a full 25 fighters. Fuller explanation below.

Rankings were compiled from the following sites: 411 Mania (12/26), Fight Magazine, Fight Matrix (1/4), Fighters, Five Ounces of Pain (1/4), Full Contact Fighter, Inside Fighting, Inside MMA, MMA 4 Real (12/29), MMA Blog, MMA ELO, MMA Fighting, MMA Playground (1/5), MMA Rocks (1/4), MMA Torch (12/9), MMA Weekly (12/31), MMA/VT, Sherdog (12/30), TAGG Radio, Total MMA, WAMMA (12/17).

The normalization scheme as explained by JCS of FightMatrix  is here:

The "normalization number" (new name) would be:

120
divided by
(Total Fighters Found in Any List minus 10)

Every fighter found somewhere else, but on a Top 10 list would be assigned this number.

The "normalization" number would not apply to a fighter not found on a Top 25 list. They would simply get 0.

So the process would be:

Do all of the Top 25 lists first, #1 = 25, #2 = 24…. #24 = 2, #25 = 1
Do all of the Top 10 lists, same scoring structure.. stops at #10 = 16

Figure out that normalization variable.

Fill in the normalization variable to all fighters not found in the Top 10 lists, but found elsewhere.

Do your totals and rank.

Comment 30 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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That's the most accurate Meta-Ranking ever!

The top five are right where they should be!

…wait a minute. What did you do to make this happen?

by Derek Suboticki on Jan 7, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions  

Actually, I think the first flip I’d make is Hazelett > Davis.

by Derek Suboticki on Jan 7, 2009 6:05 PM EST reply actions  

Condit > Hughes flip perhaps?

by donkeypunch on Jan 7, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Rankings, maybe – but I’d probably pick Hughes in a fight. Probably.

by Derek Suboticki on Jan 7, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

The Goat is still in the top 15?

Wow, the guy will kick your ass and then take you to court….. the world’s meanest lawyer.

These are the first rankings I’ve seen that give Carlos Condit any props at all, I approve of these.

Well done as always Richard and Nate.

by Gunslinger20 on Jan 7, 2009 6:08 PM EST reply actions  

This feature is one of the reasons Bloodyelbow is the best MMA site on the net. Keep it up the great work.

by Rundownloser on Jan 7, 2009 6:24 PM EST reply actions  

Great job on the rankings. My crystal ball tells me Martin Kampmann will be up there by the end of the year.

by donkeypunch on Jan 7, 2009 6:29 PM EST reply actions  

Kampmann is currently 20th in the Middleweight rankings. I suspect some sites will be slow to move him to their welterweight rankings even once he begins fighting there full time.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Jan 7, 2009 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Mike Swick and Marcus Davis certainly seem to be benefiting from their UFC hype jobs. And someone needs to give Paul Daley some love, he is at least as good as guys like Brad Blackburn.

by smoogy on Jan 7, 2009 8:23 PM EST reply actions  

Daley

 is at least as good as the other two fighters you mention also.

by tylerdurden1 on Jan 7, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you care to explain how the UFC hyping Swick has given him his highest rankings on the computerized systems? Fight magazine: computerized. MMAElo: computerized. Fightmatrix: computerized.

Almost every opinion-based ranking system doesn’t have him in their top ten.

So you’re pretty much completely wrong.

by Michaelthebox on Jan 7, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Shhhh

The world mustn’t know that the reason Zuffa fighters are considered to be so good is… that… they… are.

by Derek Suboticki on Jan 7, 2009 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Paul Daley would wreck Mike Swick and that has nothing to do with Zuffa or non-Zuffa fighters as hard as that may be for you to get a handle on.

by tylerdurden1 on Jan 7, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Nah. Daley’s ground game is basically no better than Marcus Davis’ ground game, and quite possibly worse.

Who has Daley beaten, really? Duane Ludwig, John Alessio, Sam Morgan?

by Michaelthebox on Jan 7, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

And that has nothing to do with Zuffa or non-Zuffa fighters. It has to do with the fact that Mike Swick is very good, and its absolutely laughable that smoogy thinks his ranking is due to Zuffa hype.

by Michaelthebox on Jan 7, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

You think Mike Swick’s resume dwarfs that? Swick would stand and trade with a more technical striker with more power and get Knocked Out.

by tylerdurden1 on Jan 7, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, it does. The computerized rankings prove that. No bias there. And why would Swick stand with Daley? Daley’s achilles heel is his ground game, and everyone knows it.

by Michaelthebox on Jan 7, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Why would Swick stand with Daley? Because that’s what he does. Listen I don’t want to get in a big debate over Swick/Daley fight that will never happen. I was just trying to use it as an example of how the rankings system is so flawed.

by tylerdurden1 on Jan 7, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

He spent all three rounds taking Davis down, and Davis has proven to have a decent ground game. He’s more well rounded than Daley.

Its a little silly to berate ranking systems for overhyping fighters, then overhyping a fighter to prove your point. Ludwig, Morgan, and Alessio are a cut below the competition Swick has beaten lately.

by Michaelthebox on Jan 7, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

And I really do mean that about Swick specifically. Daley’s resume is much more comparable to those of Davis and Blackburn, and he ought to be ranked up there between 15-20.

by Michaelthebox on Jan 7, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

If you look at them by points rather than ranking, it’s clear how little separation there is between those outside the top 11. 12th and 47th are separated by less than one standard deviation. Everyone from 13 on down is below average. If you look at their points as a percentage of the highest point total possible, 12th to 47th range from 28% to 8%.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Jan 7, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Quick: What do I and a bridge have in common?

by Derek Suboticki on Jan 7, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

glad to see condit high up… upsetting to see diaz so low.. i guess mayhem really is retired if hes not even in there

by beersnbroads on Jan 8, 2009 1:28 AM EST reply actions  

Diaz is ranked low in part because he is ranked at lightweight by some sites. Miller is ranked at middleweight.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Jan 8, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions  

The thing I like about WW

is that almost all of these guys are signed by Zuffa in one way or another…and therefore there are distinct possibilities of seeing many of these fighters go head to head.

As opposed to other weight classes where the quality fighters are so spread out that you may never see some of the marque matchups.

by Razreshat on Jan 8, 2009 12:00 PM EST reply actions  

Of course that doesn’t help Condit. Trapped in the WEC limbo.

by Kid Nate on Jan 8, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t understand why ZUFFA didn’t fold that division along with MW and LHW.

by Tonley on Jan 8, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

They probably think those two divisions (WW and LW) are necessary to keeping WEC relavent.

Especially because those are some of the deepest weight classes for talent. But it does make for a hard situation for the WEC champs at those weights.

Jamie Varner might find himself in a similar situation if he can hold the LW belt for too long.

by Razreshat on Jan 8, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

This will be utter chaos if BJ wins.

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jan 9, 2009 11:01 AM EST reply actions  

Just a little.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Jan 9, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

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