There are usually a few specific issues people have with mma-elo.com that I’d like to take a minute to address. Sorry if this gets ‘ranty’ and feel free to skip to your section. 8P

ELO doesn’t work – I hear this constantly, but the numbers do not back that up. In terms of overall prediction percentage, in terms of expected win percentage versus actualized win percentage, etc. it holds up very well. Not “perfect”, but that isn’t a word that can ever be used with rankings, especially not for something like MMA. The site even contains a stats page where you can view system accuracy information.

Remember that you are talking about tens of thousands of fighters being ranked and I can’t imagine anyone would ever look at it and go “yup, perfection, can’t argue with a single choice”. Lots of lists only have 10 people and most still disagree with those.

BJ Penn – One of the fighters people tend to focus on when they have issue with the system is BJ Penn. I’ve been accused of bias and I’ve heard people claim he’s proof the system doesn’t work. What I immediately go look at are the #1 ranked in other weight classes:

HW – Fedor
LHW – Rashad
MW – Anderson
WW – GSP

Anyone argue with any of those? Maybe jackson vs rashad at LHW?, but looking at their rating they are hella close. Doesn’t it seem curious that the “system” is entirely borked and wrong when the majority of people agree with lots of the other results? Doesn’t it seem strange that such a ‘flawed system’ hasn’t held back any of the other major fighters? Isn’t it possible that maybe, just maybe it’s something about BJ’s career that is causing the issue? Maybe something about having lost 3 of 4 before finally going on a 3 fight win streak? Actually this ties into the next point so lets go there…

All fights should matter – This is a concept that many people ignore. There are some people that ignore losses entirely and focus on wins. Taking it even further there are people that only focus on certain wins. That’s not how sports work and it’s simply not how the system is designed. If you lose it matters, if you win, it matters. Yes the system can be a little slower to react at times, but it can also be far more stable.

There is no doubt that some fights “matter” more than others, but to have some fights simply not matter at all is something I honestly do not understand. Last year the patriots were 15-0 going into the last game of the season, if another ‘solid’ team say 11-4 had beat them would you have made that other team the #1?

If you always ignore losses and you always let the last fight carry so much weight then TONS of fights are literally meaningless (hopefully still entertaining, but overall meaningless). Why as a fan would you want to watch a fight and go ‘well fighter A won and fighter B lost, but if fighter B wins next fight this loss won’t really matter’.

That’s the kind of thinking promoters should have. They should be selling you on the next fight always being the best fight, always being the most important, etc. As a sports fan I’d think you’d want all fights (or at least most fights) to actually matter.

Doesn’t it seem a little bit off that one fighter can go 15-0 against solid competition while another fighter goes 10-5 against roughly the same competition and by beating the first fighter immediately over take them? All the extra wins for fighter A are meaningless and all the losses for fighter B simply vanish. This ties into the final point…

Risk Vs. Reward – Under the leapfrog system and ‘specific wins’ system that some employ there are tons of silly fights. Look at a given fight and see what each fighter stands to gain and what they risk losing. In theory shouldn’t both fighters have something to gain and something to lose? Under the ‘system’ some suggest that simply isn’t the case. For example lets pretend we all agree on the rankings below:

Universally accepted #1 fights universally accepted #4. #1 wins and uhhhh stays #1.

Universally accepted #1 then fights universally accepted #12 and loses.

Some now say that the previous #1 likely falls to #2 and the old #12 jumps to #1.

In such a case #1 gained literally nothing from beating #4 (as whether they beat #4 or not the loss to #12 drops them to #2) and they additionally had nothing to gain by beating #12. That #1 ranked fighter is risking his top ranking every fight and isn’t able to gain anything out of it. That #1 fighter can literally win 14 fights in a row after getting universally accepted as #1 and they are simply sitting on a time bomb. Whether it’s the #2 fighter, or the #300 ranked fighter they lose and they drop. No amount of wins will change that.

Meanwhile all of his opponents have a lottery ticket because if they win they are #1 and if they lose ‘oh well, I win the next one and this loss doesn’t matter’. So much so, in fact, that a fighter could lose fights, then fight #1, lose to them, and then win in a rematch and immediately assume the #1 spot.

Although it might complicate the example a bit more I think it highlights additional issues to suppose that #4 actually beat #12 previously, possibly even twice. Imagine being the #4 ranked fighter in the world, possibly having your only loss be to the universally recognized #1 fighter and being passed by someone with numerous losses, fewer wins and even direct losses to you. All because of the timing of the fights.

Kinda sorta almost done…
Please ask yourself as an athlete why you would want to compete under such a system and as a fan why you would watch (aside from the hopefully entertaining aspect of the fight).

What mma-elo does is put value on EVERY fight. Some fights obviously matter more and some matter less, but even a fight between #44 and #50 will carry some weight. If you are someone who only cares about the fights with #1 and you want the fight you watched 3 months ago to potentially become completely meaningless (again hopefully entertaining though lol) then that is your prerogative. I’m certainly not one to tell people what should matter to them. By that same token it seems very silly to me that some get upset at others that do place value in different spots.

MMA is a fantastic sport but it has a lot of growing to do (and not just in terms of revenue and acceptance). For a ‘fan’ to get upset at a system that says every fight matters and says that regardless of the fight both fighters stand to gain something, but they also risk losing something seems very off to me. Yeah, that means after a few losses a fighter might have to actually win a couple of fights to get back on top. It also means that due to timing on events one fighter might peak and be sitting at #1 only as long as it takes for another fighter to win their next match and over take them. In those times though shouldn’t the other fighter be celebrated and cheered for their accomplishment? Why instead do so many fans choose to trash ‘the other guy’ instead of giving them credit for accomplishing something great and hopefully making future match-ups even more important?

Tied for the 4 spot, not 5