Mauricio "Shogun" Rua Has Everything to Lose at UFC 93

by Michael Rome on Jan 4, 2009 10:19 PM EST in News Comment 68 comments

There is a lot on the line for Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 93. If he defeats Mark Coleman, as he is widely expected to do, he may find himself in a main event with Chuck Liddell as soon as March 7th in Columbus. If he loses, it could all disappear for him.

Shogun came to the United States as the consensus top fighter in the sport's elite division, and put in a pathetic performance against Forrest Griffin, who was considered to be a borderline top 10 fighter at the time. Shogun has been held out by many as an example of Pride guys that couldn't make the transition, and 16 months later he has a chance to prove his performance was a result of his injury, and not reflective of his skill as a fighter. Shogun signed a lucrative contract, and will likely have to renegotiate or face being cut if he loses to Mark Coleman.

I fully expect Shogun to win this fight, but I have reservations. Will he ever regain his old explosiveness following his injury? Is he as dangerous of a fighter without soccer kicks and stomps? Will Mark Coleman overpower him at 205 pounds? Will he gas again trying to fend off Coleman's wrestling?

Wanderlei Silva said that before his Keith Jardine fight, he looked in the mirror and told himself that if he didn't win his life was over. One can only suspect Shogun feels the same way.

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It sure doesn't look good if he loses

But let’s not forget how much ass Coleman has kicked in his career. Yes, this win was a fluke, but I’m not counting him out all the way.

by subo on Jan 4, 2009 10:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’m not either. It’s hard to evaluate; his losses over the last few years were to the top 3 heavyweights in the world. At the same time, he doesn’t have a win over top talent…in a VERY long time. If you don’t count Fujita, and I really don’t, you have to go back into the 90’s. He’s never had a legitimate win over a talent on Shogun’s level.

by Michael Rome on Jan 4, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah you really can’t count Fujita as the towel was thrown in as soon Fujita couldn’t get a takedown because of his knee.

I still have my doubts over whether Coleman will make it to the weigh-ins or not and even if he does will he make the weight or not. Cutting to light heavyweight at his age wouldnt be advisable I don’t think. I know he’s probably done it before, being a top flight wrestler and all, but he’s in his 40s now.

Shogun’s only 23 or 24 years old still. He still has enough time in his career even if he manages to lose this bout (which I highly doubt he will) to rebuild. But yeah, your points taken that the UFC will most likely not look too kindly on Shogun or his paycheck if he takes another loss.

by SamCupitt on Jan 4, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shogun is actually 27, but still has time in his career to rebuild if he loses.

by Andrewjt101 on Jan 4, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right you are… I must be stuck in a time warp where its always 2005.

by SamCupitt on Jan 4, 2009 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whats the worst that could happen???

He could be thrust into obscurity and mediocrity just like his brother.

by nitro on Jan 4, 2009 10:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah because fighting on CBS is definitely obscurity.

by midwestbred on Jan 4, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and it will never happen again

by nitro on Jan 4, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CBS

will have MMA on again.

by tylerdurden1 on Jan 4, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m holding my breath

by nitro on Jan 4, 2009 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like you’re a big fan.

by tylerdurden1 on Jan 4, 2009 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

even so… i wouldn’t say he’s anywhere near being “thrust into obscurity” much less being a mediocre fighter. He’s never been or going to be a high ranking fighter, he’s still a challenge for a hell of a lot of fighters out there.

by midwestbred on Jan 5, 2009 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He lost on CBS

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so? fighting live on CBS doesn’t qualify for obscurity, which is what’s being discussed here.

by midwestbred on Jan 5, 2009 2:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’d be willing to bet that the majority of non-mma fans that watched Elite on CBS would have a hard time picking him out of a lineup.

They probably couldn’t name a non-Zuffa fighter besides Kimbo or Gina, maybe they could get Lawler or Petruzelli, but fighting once on CBS doesn’t mean Ninja hasn’t faded to obscurity.

by Phildo on Jan 5, 2009 2:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

point taken, but then again they probably couldn’t name him before either. By say he “faded to obscurity” it’s implying he was once a popular/known fighter. Basically he’s always been in obscurity except for hardcore fans so he really hasn’t “faded” anywhere.

by midwestbred on Jan 5, 2009 2:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No way does Shogun lose to Coleman

And if he does, he deserves obscurity. I view this much like Hughes vs. Gracie—it’s a passing of the guard moment and not a real test.

"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy

by thetakeover on Jan 4, 2009 11:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I find it hard to believe to, but you never know in this sport.

Shogun took a lot of time to heal. Hard to believe it’s been 16 or so months since the Forrest fight.

by Michael Rome on Jan 4, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn’t he recovering from two surgeries though? If I remember correctly, he had surgery after the Griffin fight, was training to come back to fight Liddell, and hurt his knee again and needed another surgery. So he isn’t really taking any extraordinary amount of time off for the injury.

by Mike Fagan on Jan 5, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Having back to back knee surgeries is extraordinary in itself and should add a question mark to whether that knee will ever be 100% again.

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 12:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Weren’t a bunch of Sherdog forum members predicting Gracie would win that fight? :)

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Jan 5, 2009 1:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Quiet you!

by Rundownloser on Jan 5, 2009 3:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/royce-will-win-why-382383/

by Michael Rome on Jan 5, 2009 3:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think my favorite line is, “IMO: who the hell has matt beat that should impress me… GSP?? whooopeeee”

by Richard Wade on Jan 5, 2009 3:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Nice find. That site makes my face hurt.

by subo on Jan 5, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I used to frequent it (3547 posts according to my profile there), but I finally stopped even reading the forums back in November.

by Richard Wade on Jan 5, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Congrats are in order. You finally kicked the bad stuff.

by subo on Jan 5, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s all thanks to BE. This place is so busy with commentary that it eats all of the time I have available to spend discussing MMA.

by Richard Wade on Jan 5, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The place has been on a downward spiral for quite a while now. I got to where I couldn’t even stand reading the post.

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shogun asked for this fight, and my guess it was mainly for a bit of revenge. The way Coleman carried on after their last fight, I can’t wait to see Shogun kick his arse.

by brad23 on Jan 4, 2009 11:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is really a trap fight, everyone expects him to win but Coleman isn’t a push over and Shogun has been on the shelf for a long time.

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 12:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Did you happen to notice that Mark Coleman hasn’t fought in 26 months? The first fight with Shogun was basically three years ago. He fought only once since then and was abused.

by D.Capitated on Jan 5, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep everyone assumes Mark Coleman is going to lose this fight(badly), that’s why it could be a trap for Shogun. The fact that Coleman hasn’t fought in years makes it even more of a potential trap. Coleman is old and out of his era and hasn’t fought in years but it’s not like he is a can.

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It could be a trap. It could also be (and more likely is) a complete mismatch. I guess its good for BIZ and will end with a KO so who cares amrite?

by D.Capitated on Jan 5, 2009 7:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You seemed to be taking it hard that I said that for some reason.

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m just stunned to see anyone defend the matchmaking as being competitive.

by D.Capitated on Jan 5, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where did I ever say it was competitive matchmaking?

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t see an armbreak via takedown occuring again. I’m with the guy who says that if Shogun loses again, he deserves to get cut. Hell, he should think about retiring. Coleman is a middle aged man fighting the lightest of his career, likely because he has stopped using steroids, and whom has not beaten anyone of consequence in respectable, legitimate fashion in nearly 8 years. This is not Randy Couture. This is a man who completely ignored the forward movement of the sport, has never learned how to kick, never learned proper submission defense, etc etc etc. He’s fought without shoes what, once ever?

If Shogun had just allowed himself to land on his back we wouldn’t even be talking about this fight as being a legitimate bout. It would be a total laughingstock on par with Bob Sapp/Pro Wrestler With Mask On. Instead, we’re gonna have to hear two weeks of drivel about Coleman being something approaching a legitimate talent in 2009.

by D.Capitated on Jan 5, 2009 12:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Shogun has basically put his career on the line against a over the hill champion with nothing to lose. He should run through Coleman like a hot knife through butter but if he doesn’t then his career is going to take a disastrous hit (even if he wins).

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can say this about any crap fight! Mirko Cro-Cop faced an unknown hispanic with a solid greco background and nothing to lose. Hong Man Choi faced a great natural athlete (as Rogan would say) who’s history as a talk show host obscured his superior training, and who could do almost nothing but win, regardless of the outcome.

by D.Capitated on Jan 5, 2009 7:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The difference is that Mark Coleman could really be dangerous. Yea he is woefully behind the times and yea he hasn’t done anything at all for years but he isn’t some kind of can they are feeding Shogun he is a former world champion. The trap here is that everyone is writing Coleman off like he’s Elvis Sinosic. Did we learn nothing from Mir vs Nogueira?

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s true. If Randy can come back and beat Timmay AND Gonzaga, I’m not putting anything past Coleman.

by subo on Jan 5, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What has Mark Coleman done to establish that he might not be Elvis Sinosic?

by D.Capitated on Jan 5, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well Coleman has won a world title and a open weight grand prix. At one time he was considered a really big deal, has anyone ever considered Sinosic a big deal?

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lots and lots and lots of shit.

by subo on Jan 6, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I heavily favor Shogun here too.

In a lot of ways, they are giving him a slam dunk return. He’s going to get a win in a fight that will be heavily promoted with smoke and mirrors, with a lot of focus on the post-fight brawl. He’s getting an easy win disguised as a tough fight.

I just don’t know which Shogun we’re going to see. If he gasses early it could be a slow, boring, grinding decision.

by Michael Rome on Jan 5, 2009 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As an aside, I do not think Shogun is ever going to be a champion or an elite level fighter in the UFC at 205 pounds. I’ve been sick, and have spent most of the past 2 days watching his fights over again, and I think he is probably the best example of someone being hurt by rule changes. Soccer kicks and stomps were huge weapons for him, and without them he’s left as a solid wrestler with good jits and reckless standup. Enough to easily beat Coleman, but he’s going to have a very hard time surviving guys like Liddell, Jackson, Franklin, Henderson, Machida, and Evans.

He’s young and talented so he obviously has time to reinvent himself and get better. But he’s going to need new tools to survive in the 205 division.

by Michael Rome on Jan 5, 2009 12:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Or go to Sengoku.

by smoogy on Jan 5, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Now that’s a triangle defence haha..

by DirtyML on Jan 5, 2009 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On review it looks more like an omoplata that was failing was paying attention more to the face stompage..

by DirtyML on Jan 5, 2009 2:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Armbar

it was an armbar defense, and a good one at that.

by Nick Travaglini on Jan 5, 2009 8:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just saw Shogun’s fight against Forrest, and he does not look that big at 205, I think he could easily cut to 185, maybe 170.

by The Bronzeville Bully on Jan 5, 2009 8:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who is this Joe Rogan?

by tylerdurden1 on Jan 6, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Being on the internet gives me a right...nay a responsibility to bitch about things

by beery_pbr on Jan 6, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand

People need to stop with their personal vendetta’s against Pride. I get the feeling people see it as a UFC victory over Pride if they’re able to cut the fighters that came over. UFC already won when they purchased the damn thing. Win or lose he still has a future in the sport and will make for some great matchups in the future. There’s been hell of a lot of worse fighters who weren’t cut after 2 loses. Why can’t people just show support and hope for some great fights.

by midwestbred on Jan 5, 2009 2:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Who has a personal vendetta against Pride?

by Richard Wade on Jan 5, 2009 2:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just mean it seems people target them a lot more harsh when they have lack luster performances then most other fighters.

by midwestbred on Jan 5, 2009 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that has less to do with Pride and more to do with the fact that many people believed these guys were demigods and their apparent human frailty upsets people.

by Richard Wade on Jan 5, 2009 3:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well PRIDE was considered the number one MMA org on the planet, so when their biggest and best stars get don’t live up to the hype (arguably consistently), it comes up in conversation.

by Rundownloser on Jan 5, 2009 3:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s pretty common that fighters get cut or asked to renegotiate their pay after a couple of big losses in the UFC and that is quite possibly what would happen to Shogun if he lost this fight. The only was Pride works into this is because his reputation sat the expectations bar so much higher for him coming into the UFC.

by who me on Jan 5, 2009 3:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope Coleman pounds his face into the ground. Don’t think it will happen though.

by lbk on Jan 5, 2009 8:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Shogun doesn't only need a win....

He needs a definitive stoppage. In my opinion, if this fight gets out of the second round, its as good as a loss for Shogun. A 27year old former number one fighter against a 43 year old Aging wrestler who is sucking alot of weight, this needs to be a first round stoppage. If Shogun looks anything less than stellar, he is in trouble. I am a huge fan, Shogun and Wand are my favorite fighters. I hope he makes a full comeback. I remember not even talking to my girlfriend for 3 or 4 days after that forrest loss.

by Nick Travaglini on Jan 5, 2009 8:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I just watched Shogun vs Lil Nog in Pride the other night. Honestly, he looked way out of shape vs Forrest, which I guess may be attributed to his injury resulting in poor training. I can give him a pass on that fight, which I think he was winning until he ran out of gas. Now in the Nog fight, he looked so much more focused and explosive, it was like a totally different fighter, and that was a damn close fight.

I truly hope he gets back in that form, because I think we all deserve to see a fighter of that caliber at the top of their game. What a great division.

Eliot Marshall: Bader won. Like I said in the episode, I'm not going to make any excuses. It's my job to be able to deal with when somebody's doing that. It's not his job to change up his tactics.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Jan 5, 2009 11:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

He was obviously out of shape and hurt in that fight with Forrest, although I know people think that is just making excuses. Problem is, the two knee surgeries he had sometimes take up to 2 years to fully come back from.(i had a similar injury) I am just not sure what to expect from him.

by Nick Travaglini on Jan 5, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I’m not sure either. I know he is a world class athlete and in amazing shape (compared to most of us), but I am still leery of coming back from an injury like that, especially in a sport so hard on knees and with guys kicking at those knees! I can only hope he is an exception and not a rule.

Eliot Marshall: Bader won. Like I said in the episode, I'm not going to make any excuses. It's my job to be able to deal with when somebody's doing that. It's not his job to change up his tactics.

http://eliotmarshall.com/

by BJJDenver on Jan 5, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very true.

Which might be why they put him in with an over-the-hill fighter with alot of name recognition.

by Razreshat on Jan 5, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Shogun has a great chance to win, unless Coleman sweats too many roids onto him and they both get popped for testing. Then I’m thinking “no contest.”

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jan 9, 2009 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs