UFC 94 Staff Picks - Undercard Edition

We'll be back tomorrow with our picks for the full card. The bookies have asked us to hold off as late as possible because of the dramatic swings in the betting lines that are triggered by people betting against Luke's Kid Nate's picks.

Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono



Luke Thomas: I don't want to over analyze this, partly because I'm curious to see what tricks Fitch picked up in Thailand that has helped his stand-up game. Regardless, he already had better movement and better fundamentals than Gono. And even if he had holes, Gono isn't the sort of fighter to exploit them or even hurt him. As for as wrestling and submissions, Fitch is better in virtually everyway. There's really nothing in Gono's arsensal that's problematic for Fitch. Fitch, by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: I've gone back and forth about this match. The one thing I'm sure of is that its shitty of the UFC to shunt Jon Fitch off to the undercard after a gutty performance in the headliner of UFC 87. They're not doing Gono any favors either, he's 1-1 after a (bullshit) decision loss to Dan Hardy and will be on the ropes if he drops to 1-2. It is an interesting stylistic match though. Gono's mix of unconventional striking and submission skills is the yin to Fitch's yang. But Fitch has good jiu jitsu and is decent on his feet, and I still see this fight involving Gono on his back for long stretches. Gono used to fight at middleweight but at 5'8" he'll still be dwarfed by the 6'1" Fitch (they are listed as 5'9" and 6'0" but I don't buy either measure). I have to go with Fitch by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  The size difference is really overwhelming here.  Gono is tough and skilled but I can't look at this fight without seeing Fitch being able to control where this fight takes place.  He is much bigger and too tough to fold should Gono have a moment or two during the fight.  The thing that really sucks is I don't see either guy getting finished which means that the chances of this somehow making the PPV broadcast are significantly reduced.  Anyway, size, strength and right hands win the fight for Fitch.  Fitch by decision.

Michael Rome:  This is the kind of fight Jon Fitch wins.  I just don't see any area where Gono is the better fighter.  I think Fitch will take him down and grind this thing out in a decision.  Fitch by decision.

Michael Fagan: I fail to see how Gono takes this fight.  Sure, GSP blasted Fitch for five rounds, but that's more a testament to him than any statement about Fitch's skills.  I love me some Akihiro, but he's going to have to pull a sub out of his ass to win here.  Jon Fitch by TKO, round 2.

Cannon Jacques:  It's a little hard to believe that these two accomplished fighters are relegated to undercard status.  In my opinion, there are only a few welterweight fighters that stand a decent chance of besting Fitch.  I don't think Gono is one of those guys.  Many of Gono's losses came at the hands of rather large competitors - Denis Kang, Dan Henderson, Shogun Rua.  Fitch certainly fits that bill.  I see Fitch taking this one in dominant fashion.  Fitch by decision.

Chris Nelson: Joe Silva isn't giving either of these guys an easy fight after their respective hard-fought decision losses to GSP and Dan Hardy, and no doubt that's just how both fighters wanted it. I'm a longtime fan of Gono (and DJ Gozma), but I think his troubles Stateside continue here against the bigger, stronger Purdue wrestler. Here's hoping we get to see Gono fight more than once this year. P.S. Why why why is this on the undercard? Jon Fitch by Decision.

Nick Thomas: Fitch is going to be too much for Gono. Fitch by TKO.


Jake O'Brien vs. Christian Wellisch



Luke Thomas: There's not much to say about this. Wellisch probably prefers to stand, but we know O'Brien has zero interest in that. Ultimately, Wellisch is going to concede the takedown. Over and over and over again. Rinse and repeat. O'Brien by unanimous decision.

Kid Nate: This is deep in who cares country. Loser is probably leaving the UFC. Both men were run out of the heavyweight division by the UFC's new breed of heavyweight mega-wrestlers, O'Brien taking a beatdown from Cain Velasquez and Wellisch getting battered by Shane Carwin. Wellisch is fairly well rounded with passable standup and some submission skills. Sadly, he won't be able to fend off Jake "the Blanket" O'Brien's one skill -- getting the takedown and controlling position. O'Brien by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  This is a fight between two guys who have already served their purpose.  Both were pounded out by the next generation of heavyweights and now they get to face each other to see who gets to stick around on the roster to fight Justin McCully on an Ultimate Fight Night undercard down the road.  O'Brien isn't good at a lot, but he is very good at getting the fight to the ground and maintaining dominant position.  Which should be enough to get him a safe decision win.  Is the world ready for Jake O'Brien vs. Justin McCully?  O'Brien by decision.  (yes, at the time of the picks I completely forgot this was at 205...there goes the dream match against McCully)

Michael Rome:  I echo Nate's thoughts above.  O'Brien should take this via wet blanket.  O'Brien by decision.

Michael Fagan: The UFC was quick to release O'Brien after his underwhelming affair with Andrei Arlovski last February.  But he took a fight with Cain Velasquez on short notice which always puts someone in Zuffa's good graces.  O'Brien's going to do his thing and hold down Wellish and keep his job I guess. Jake O'Brien by decision.

Cannon Jacques:  I don't have strong feelings, one way or the other, about this affair.  The two men are coming off matches in which both were finished quickly by two of the UFC's up and coming heavyweights.  The loser may be shown the exit, but who really knows?  If O'Brien can do what he does best - hold his opponent down, he should get the win in quite boring fashion.  Either way, I can't imagine either of these gentlemen making a splash in the talent rich light heavyweight division.  O'Brien by decision.

Nick Thomas: Doubt this fight will stay standing... because of that. O'Brien by decision.

Chris Wilson vs. John Howard




Luke Thomas: Seriously, Wilson is going to bomb on Howard. Just give him a few minutes. That's all he needs. Wilson by KO, round 1.

Kid Nate: This match is a little more intriguing. Mainly because it ought to be a showcase for Chris Wilson who's one of the least heralded legitimate contenders in the UFC welterweight class. I'm still baffled at the reasoning behind Wilson making his UFC debut against Jon Fitch at 82 right before Fitch went on to his title shot. Regardless, Wilson is a legitimate up and comer. He's a very skilled striker with a good submission game who trains with Team Quest, where he presumably is working on improving his wrestling (not that I've seen much evidence of anyone improving at anything at Team Quest). Howard on the other hand is a UFC noob that I'm not impressed with as a prospect. Wilson should get to show his stuff and build a high light reel. Wilson by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Chris Wilson is one of the few ex-IFL guys that I feel is a legitimate prospect.  His striking is very solid and his ground game is a bit overlooked.  I honestly figured that with his solid showing against Fitch in his first UFC fight that we'd see Wilson get some air-time.  The good news is that an impressive TKO here will get him popped in the broadcast as a time-filling bonus fight.  Howard is a guy who went 2-3 in 2007 but I guess a 3 fight win streak in '08 was enough to get him brought in as a showcase opponant.  Look for a little combination punching followed by a head kick for Wilson.  Wilson by KO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Honestly, I expect Wilson to rip Howard up on his feet.  Wilson via KO, round 1.

Michael Fagan: Wilson is a solid IFL prospect who had the unfortunate introduction to the Octagon against Jon Fitch.  The UFC is doing a good job of building him back up slowly.  He's a heavy favorite, and I have no reason to doubt that assessment.  Chris Wilson by TKO, round 2.

Cannon Jacques:  Wilson was impressive against Fitch although he was unable to pull off the upset.  This is Howard's UFC debut.  It's somewhat dangerous speculation, but I'm guessing that this fight is Wilson's opportunity to build himself up after his recent loss.  Wilson has a number of decision wins on his resume', and I wouldn't be surprised to see him add one more at UFC 94.  Wilson via decision.

Chris Nelson: The UFC's handling of one of their most exciting and promising welterweights continues to baffle. Chris Wilson was thrown to the lions in his promotional debut against Jon Fitch, where he handled himself ably, going three rounds (and winning the first) with one of the 170lb elite. Five months later, he's on the untelevised undercard of Fitch's title fight against GSP, taking a decision from the equally promising (and equally underexposed) Steve Bruno. Wilson has expressed displeasure with his winning performance in the Bruno fight;  East Coast journeyman "Doomsday" Howard doesn't stand much of a chance against a hungry and focused fighter with Wilson's skill set. Note to Chris: do yourself a favor and get a sweet nickname like "The Skull Twysterr" or "Annihilatron" - meatheads don't wanna root for "The Professor." Chris Wilson by TKO, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Wilson by whatever he wants.

Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares



Luke Thomas: If Tavares had more stand-up ability, I'd be less concerned. Tavares has a smoother submission and guard passing game, but like Gamburyan enjoys top control, although Gamburyan tends to sit in guard longer. Either way, I don't think Tavares is going to do enough damage on the feet nor threaten from his guard enough to score the requisite points for a win. Add in Gamburyan's better takedown ability and we've got a close fight, but a style favorite as well: Gamburyan, by decision.

Kid Nate: This is a match between two guys who were once on the way up in the UFC lightweight division and are now on the way down. Manny was well on his way to winning TUF until he separated his shoulder against Nate Diaz. Then after picking up a pair of quick submission wins, he lost badly to Rob Emerson in a fight he was heavily favored to win. Tavares was highly touted after demolishing Jason Black and losing a very close fight to Tyson Griffin. Since then he's lost two straight to Matt Wiman and Kurt Pellegrino. Fortunately for Thiago, Manny is even worse on his feet. Unfortunately, Manny's smothering top control game and submission acumen makes him a very tough fighter for a BJJ stylist to beat. Unless Tavares can score heavily on the feet, Gamburyan will grind out a decision and I think Thiago recent discovery that he needs to ramp up his striking game might be too little too late. It's too bad as this will likely be his last UFC fight and he's a very talented young fighter. Manny Gamburyan by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Manny is one of those guys who has pop in his hands so he chooses to get reckless and try to throw them forgetting that he doesn't have the technique to take advantage of that power.  He's obviously at his best when he sticks to the simple, get on top and grind strategy.  Tavares isn't exactly a world beater on the feet either so should Manny leave himself open I don't think we'll see him take advantage there.  Manny is too good at controlling the game once he gets on top and that is a really awful prospect for Tavares as he is in a lot of trouble if he can't work successfuly from the bottom.  Gamburyan by decision.

Michael Rome:  Tavares doesn't have the power to take advantage in transitions, and Manny will smother him.  Hey, the main card rocks but this undercard looks boring as hell.  Manny Gamburyan by decision.

Michael Fagan: Gamburyan lost the Emerson fight because he rushed in without caution.  I don't think he'll make the same mistake here.  If he can stay out of trouble standing, I think he takes the fight.  Manvel Gamburyan by decision.

Cannon Jacques:  I suspect the prudent course of action in this bout would be to take Gamburyan on the strength of his ability to control his opponents from top position while avoiding submission attempts.  However, I'm quite skilled at making mistakes due to extensive practice.  For some reason, I'm picking Tavares to call upon his jiu-jitsu skills and stave off a potential exit from the UFC.  Tavares by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: After a tough TUF loss to Nate Diaz, The Company seemed to be fast-tracking Karo's older cousin, pitting him against relatively safe opponents (Jeff Cox, Nate Mohr) en route to what Mike Goldberg surely would've dubbed a "METEORIC RISE." Then he ran into Rob Emerson. The 13-3 Tavares, meanwhile, has come undone since Tyson Griffin snapped his unbeaten streak at 12-0 back at UFC 76. Both guys have shown themselves to have mediocre-to-atrocious standup (Tavares slightly less so) and both are coming off brutal KO losses, so expect this to play out on the ground, where Gamburyan can out-muscle and out-position the black belt. Manny Gamburyan by Decision.

Nick Thomas: Pulling for the upset here. Gamburyan by TKO.

Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer



Luke Thomas: Neither fighter has considerable MMA ability, but Arroyo does have some kind of BJJ acumen. Cramer has some resiliency, but not the technical skill to withstand Arroyo's assault. Arroyo, by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Two TUF veterans meetup. Cramer is making his pro-MMA debut after making the quarter finals of season 7. If I recall correctly he was extremely sloppy. Arroyo should have the submission skills to finish this one. personally, I'd rather see any number of fighters in the UFC than these two, but I expect they'll both go the way of Josh Haynes soon enough. Arroyo by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Cramer's game is a recipe for UFC disaster in the long term.  He is sloppy as all hell with his boxing (at least based off the little we have to go on via TUF) and leaves opening after opening trying to land bombs.  He does have some pop in his hands though and I don't really dig Arroyo on the feet, especially considering that his chin is a little questionable.  Having your first pro fight in the UFC has got to cause at least one nervous backstage vomitting...but the fact that this fight likely happens in front of maybe 1,000 people not counting media as everyone filters into the arena will help.  As long as he can keep it standing for more than 2 minutes I'll go ahead and say Cramer by KO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Cramer looked terrible on the show, but Arroyo's not great either.  This is an ugly battle of TUF alums.  I suspect Arroyo will get him down and submit him.  Arroyo via submission, round 2.

Michael Fagan: Matt Arroyo by decision.

Cannon Jacques:  There's not much to go on in regard to Cramer except his work on TUF.  He seemed to have a solid chin and some some decent standup skills.  I'll admit that I pulled for Arroyo during his time as a TUF participant.  He's really efficient on the ground, but he lacks a formidable striking game.  I believe Arroyo will get this fight to the ground, and since his opponent's name isn't Matt Brown, I like his chances.  Arroyo by submission, round 1.

Chris Nelson: With such a solid main card, you're bound to have some meaningless "Ultimate Fighter veteran" fights padding the back end. TUF 7 quarterfinalist Cramer has been sidelined with a broken collar bone since shortly after losing to Tim Credeur about a year ago. Cramer's boxing is wild, but the man does have power and Arroyo - who's had his chin exploited twice now by Matt Brown - could have trouble getting inside and taking him to (or at least keeping him on) the floor. "Octagon jitters" be damned, I'm thinking the debutante pulls a minor upset here. Dan Cramer by TKO, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Arroyo should take this on the ground. Arroyo by submission.