Georges St. Pierre: B.J. Penn's Enormous Hurdle

There's no need for me to further discuss the significance of this weekend's welterweight championship bout.  The fight is going to be huge, and it has the potential to live up to the substantial hype supporting it.  I would rather get into speculation as to who will win and how they will do so.  B.J. Penn shares some thoughts on the issue with MMA Weekly:

"To all my fans, Georges St. Pierre's No. 2 and to all Georges St. Pierre's fans I'm No. 2.  They like us both, but they know who they're going for that night," Penn commented.  "This is the kind of fight you hope for your entire life.  This is definitely the pinnacle of my career."

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"It's not a battle of skill, it's a battle of will," said Penn.  "He's going to find out, and I'm going to find out, and we're going to find out pretty quick that I'm more skilled than he is, I'm faster than he is, but he's going to try to grind this thing out and I'm going to be there right in his face the whole time.

Certainly, Penn is an amazingly skilled fighter who should never be counted out.  However, GSP is the favorite and for good reason.  Randy Couture explains why he believes the current welterweight champion will prevail:

"B.J. is one of the most talented guys that I've ever been around. He has amazing balance and flexibility. He's got naturally heavy hands. His submission skills are top notch," commented Couture. "But I still think we've seen him at 155 fight the best that he has. Although he beat Matt Hughes back in the day at 170, it was more of a style match-up than anything. Conditioning, the body, mindset, everything, it was the best it's ever been at 155."

Penn has been a dominating force in the lightweight division, but has a history of wanting to challenge himself in higher weight classes. Couture believes Georges St. Pierre will be too much for the Hawaiian fighter.

"I just don't see it going well for (Penn) going up to 170, dealing with a guy like Georges who is cutting down a good 15 pounds, probably more, to make the 170-pound limit, who is as dynamic and has the skill sets that Georges has," stated the 44-year-old fighter affectionately know as "Captain America."

The fact that B.J. Penn can move up one or more weight classes and be competitive against the best in the world is a testament to his own skill.  But as Couture stated, Penn's frame is best suited for lightweight.  Is it probable that Penn would beat most of the other UFC welterweights?  I would say without a doubt.  GSP is a much different animal than most of his counterparts in the division.  His training session  with Rashad Evans on UFC:  Primetime serves as visual evidence of St. Pierre's size advantage over smaller welterweights like Penn.  While size doesn't tell the whole story, it can be a daunting challenge to overcome.  GSP has the build to keep Penn at a distance for an extended period of time and then muscle him around when the fighting gets close.

Conditioning is a question mark for Penn while this aspect of MMA is one of St. Pierre's strong suits.  The longer the bout goes, the more likely the bigger GSP will be able to wear down his smaller competitor.  St. Pierre has the wrestling skills to make the fight a long grind.  There's also no doubt that St. Pierre can perform at a high level for a full five rounds.  Can Penn do the same?  We may find out.

If Penn can land some hard shots early, he can overcome the force that is GSP.  Many still question GSP's mental toughness and chin as a result of his loss to Matt Serra.  Personally, I don't believe either is much of an issue, but those are still questions that are often cited when a case is made against St. Pierre.  That aside, there's little question that Penn possesses formidable knockout power, and that's not something to minimize, especially when coupled with Penn's excellent boxing. It's also important that one not forget about the lightweight champion's impressive jiu-jitsu credentials.  If anyone can submit GSP, it's Penn.  However, I don't see it as likely unless Penn is able to soften his foe up with strikes first.  As Joe Rogan would say:  "GSP is no joke on the ground."  He's become quite adept at keeping himself out of fight ending submissions.

Those are my thoughts.  I'm well aware that others have very different takes.  One Bloody Elbow staffer is even willing to risk downing a bottle of maple syrup to show support for one, B.J. Penn.  Either way, it should be a closely contested rematch full of the intrigue that great MMA fights possess.

Photo via Sherdog