Neither Georges St. Pierre nor B.J. Penn is the Best Fighter at UFC 94: Lyoto Machida Is
by Kid Nate on Jan 27, 2009 5:47 PM EST
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According to those statistical whizzes at Fight Metric:
One of the best ways to measure effective defense and dominance is to look at the number of strikes a fighter absorbs. Because of variable fight lengths, the easiest way to consistently calculate this is to figure the number of strikes absorbed divided by the number of minutes fought. That gives you the number of strikes absorbed per minute of fighting, which we abbreviate as SApM. Here are some SApM figures for the five current UFC champions:
Anderson Silva: 0.71 SApM
Georges St. Pierre: 1.01 SApM
BJ Penn: 1.23 SApM
Rashad Evans: 1.39 SApM
Frank Mir: 2.7 SApMLet's wrap things up with two more fighters' numbers:
Fedor Emelianenko: 0.59 SApM
Lyoto Machida: 0.64 SApMBoth Fedor and Machida have proven harder to hit than all of the UFC's champions. And it's not like there is a shortage of data on any of these guys. These numbers are from their entire careers. Does it mean Fedor and Machida are better than the other fighters? Not necessarily...this is just one subset of their entire fighting profile. But it is interesting to note that Fedor and Machida come in #1 and #2 in terms of the hardest guys to hit in MMA history.
There's no arguing with statistics.
UPDATE: As known wise-ass Luke Thomas points out in the comments, Rami backs off from making any broad categorical claims about the meaning of this statistic. But I don't. Note that Fedor is pretty much the consensus #1 MMA fighter of all time and that the order of the UFC champions according to their SApM stats is eerily consistent with their standings in the eyes of fight pundits. Everyone knows that Anderson Silva is the best UFC champ, GSP is next and B.J. is third. Now we know why. It's their SApM score. From now on, don't even try to argue with me unless you've got some SApM scores handy to back up your claims.
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I haven’t ventured over to the article yet, but I’m curious what Silva’s SApM is since joining the UFC (as in, the unbeatable Anderson Silva of today). Even then, .71 is nothing to sneeze at.
Silva’s SApM for his UFC fights is 1.06, so the better competition has actually skewed his recent SApM higher than the rest of his career. Though actually thats almost entirely due to the two Rich Franklin fights. In his 6 non-Franklin UFC fights his SApM is right around his career average.
by Graven Image on Jan 27, 2009 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Um, I’m not sure I follow. Rami clearly states this metric doesn’t prove Fedor or Machida are better. What am I missing?
hate hate hate hate hate hate
by Derek Suboticki on Jan 27, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Fight Metric is absolutely awesome
And in my wildest dreams, when the Saturday Super Bowl card is comparable in media coverage, they’re the UFC’s Compu-Strike, with live stats available to the judges at ringside.
You combine that metric with their 0.5 average losses… and it’s difficult to argue against him. Machida has one helluva resume.
by Derek Suboticki on Jan 27, 2009 6:01 PM EST reply actions
PS
More validity to the ‘Brock Lesnar is going to whup that ass’ theory: Frank Mir gets hit a lot.
by Derek Suboticki on Jan 27, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
Negated by the fact that Lesnar gets hit a lot.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
THat's not what we're arguing...?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I’m just saying that Mir’s taking a lot of strikes would be negated by the fact that Lesner gets hit a lot except that Lesner hits like a ton of bricks.
In fact, that's not even a solid argument.
Because mir just KO’d nog, Lesnar couldn’t put down Herring(Who’s been on the other side of some brutal fights), and KO’d the paper chin of Randy Couture, and he lost to mir anyway. So unless Lesnar now had outstanding sub defense suddenly, your point is irrelevant even if it WAS apt.
It’s like saying someone has brutal power for knocking out Goulet.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Are you really arguing that Brock doesn’t hit hard? He floored Mir and Randy and knocked Herring clear across the ring.
If you want to argue that his ground and pound technique needs work which kept him from finishing Mir and Herring then I’ll agree with you but to imply that he doesn’t have power in his strikes is something I totally disagree with.
Flooring Randy being easy aside: I am completely attacking Lesnar's GnP technique, and saying his power is overrated(It's above average but not devastating)
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree until there is a larger sample size to draw conclusions from (since I can’t remember any quotes from his opponents speaking directly to his striking power and not just his overall strength and speed)
Mir said his punchess felt more than pushes, FWIW.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
They still floored him. And I dare say his standup has improved.
It takes a hard punch to break an orbital bone. Herring’s just a tough sonofabitch.
by Derek Suboticki on Jan 27, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
You really comparing Heath Herring’s skull to Nate Diaz’s skull?
You can break an orbital bone at any weight class because punching power AND skeletal structure are both tied to overall size. But it certainly says something that the guy you compared Brock to, Gomi, is generally considered one of the most dangerous strikers in his weight class.
by Michaelthebox on Jan 28, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
actually he got hit a lot that fight. he just had no offense.
by EazyEismydad on Jan 27, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
Key thing is number of minutes fought, Nate got a divide by zero error.
by iiowyn on Jan 27, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
if they both didnt get hit then the fight would be a draw..
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Jan 27, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
Then Khalib
should’ve won the fight. He was in “control” the whole time.
How about we check Cerrone's number
Infinity in every fight.
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Jan 28, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Fedor
must bleed really easily since he gets hit so little. Blood to strike ratio must be high.
Those numbers
Are incomplete. They tried to measure Machida more accurately but he ran away before they could finish gauging him.
by Farthammer on Jan 27, 2009 6:10 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
You meant to say “he eluded their measuring devices with a dazzling display of technique”
by Kid Nate on Jan 27, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Quotes from my stats proffessor
There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics.
It is statistically proven that you can use statistics to prove anything.
Never let statistics get in the way of common sense.
Side Note: If you really wanted a better numerical approximation of a fighter’s ability, you would do a compairson of their SAPM Vs the AVG SAPM of their last 10 opponents. Anderson Silva’s SAPM/AVG SAPM-10 opp would be much, much higher than Machida’s SAPM/AVG SAPM-10 opp. The higher the number, the more effective the striker.
you forgot...
Figures never lie, but liars can figure.
That is one of my father’s favorite lines.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jan 27, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Come on, Kid Nate. This doesn’t take into account strength of schedule AT ALL. It also doesn’t account for the fact that in many cases, a bad loss can wildly skew the number. An example of that is GSP, who probably took more strikes in the fight against Serra than in much of the rest of his career put together. If Lyoto gets his ass kicked once, his number will shoot up; same with Fedor. Thats why strength of schedule plays a huge part, because more tough opponents means a greater likelihood of getting your ass handed to you at some point.
ummm
“don’t even try to argue with me unless you’ve got some SApM scores handy to back up your claims.”
I don’t see any SApM numbers in your comment.
by Kid Nate on Jan 27, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Are you really arguing GSP's strength of schedule
With his loss to Serra? I understand the argument but that’s really not the best way to pursue it.
Gimme 1 Round!
Ahhh!
That’s what I was thinking with the quality of opposition question I had down at the bottom. If you take a good whooping and get hit with 20 punches in a minutes time then of course it’s going to skew it.
By the same token...
a fighter’s SApM is also going to be skewed in his favor if he’s fought a number of low-quality opponents and managed to take most of them down and ground-and-pound them. You’re not going to absorb many strikes if you are primarily a good wrestler who either takes all your opponents down and laid-and-prayed or ground-and-pounded them. If you add in a weak chin, then you’ll have a great-looking SApM, but you may not be much of an all-around, good fighter. Just a good wrestler who gets knocked out easily.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."
I'm puffing away, Hal.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 27, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
The SApM may be skewed toward controlling wrestlers and dominant strikers, then again, those are qualities of top fighters.
by Graven Image on Jan 27, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
But...
How do you factor bjj/submission guys into the strength of schedule? Because you could be facing some dangerous grappling guys who throw very few punches or throw with the intent of setting up takedowns only.
Vitor Ribeiro was a guy that could go an entire fight without even throwing a punch and I would consider him a guy that would add to a fighter’s strength of schedule.
I am the bastard love child of Junie Browning and Diamond Dave Kaplan.
Exactly. Lot of factors here that make it impossible to judge a fighter by his SApM, beyond low=good, high=bad.
by Michaelthebox on Jan 27, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
SApM is the Quarterback Rating of MMA
Nobody really understands it, but everybody knows it works.
"It's like a flying knuckle sandwich." --Rogan
"And many men have eaten it." -- Goldy
All things considered, QB Rating is remarkably solid. I still don’t care for it. I’ll take (D)VOA over QB Rating any day.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Jan 27, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
I never got the difference between College QB rating and NFL QB. NFL max is 158.3, college is even higher?
by Derek Suboticki on Jan 27, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
They use a different formula. I’m even less of a fan of the college qb rating.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Jan 27, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
Stupid Question
And I have no idea if this makes any sense at all, and please tell me if it doesn’t, but would opponents throw off the SApM number at all? For example say Fighter A has a .75 SApM and Fighter B has a 1.35 SApM but Fighter A has fought mostly grappler types and Fighter B has fought mostly striker types. Could that skew the SApM number drastically? Or same thing with quality opposition. Maybe Fighter A has fought lesser competition than Fighter B.
Grammar...
I hate to be the one to have to point this out, but if I was running a journalistic site such as this, I’d try to tighten up on editing to make sure it seems like an actual news source instead of “just another blog”. “Neither Georges St. Pierre NOR B.J. Penn…” would be the correct use of English.
And yes, I’d be happy to fill the editor position.
Let's face it Machida is good but not the best until he fights the best.
There are so many variables it’s just too hard to say that one person over another is better because of the amount of strikes they absorb. IMO alot depends on the style of fighting they use and I can see how Lyoto Machida would be least hit in that regard but a better fighter than BJ or GSP I just dont think so.
I like Lyoto Machida, he is out there to win and do good for himself and his family not to impress the fans or put on a good short.
by Qualitydaydream on Jan 27, 2009 6:53 PM EST reply actions
I’m all for letting Machida fight the best, but he has taken out some major major fighters; Rich Franklin, our Lord & Protector BJ Penn, Stephan Bonnar, Tito.
Give him his shot, PLEASE.
The fact that he couldn’t take out BJ decisively (wait, there can’t be anything more decisive than a decision, can there? so confused..) is either a testament to BJ’s greatness or Machida’s lameness. I mean, how would he fare against a featherweight? :-)
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
He would win every minute of a 3 round decision
Like he has against every other fighter of his career. Except lousy, overrated Rich Franklin. Who he knocked into next week.
Gimme 1 Round!
Correction:
Lyoto Machida is the best DEFENSIVE fighter in MMA.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Correction
Fedor is the best DEFENSIVE fighter in MMA. According to the stats anyway.
Strength of Schedule ^_^
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
The best, my ass.
The headling should read, " Neith GSP or BJ are the best at not getting hit. Machida is."
Being the best at avoiding punches doesn’t make him the best fighter.
I have an SApM score of 0.00. That makes me better than Fedor or Machida right?
Conversely in the Machida fight Tito has an SApM of 1.53. Damn, that was one hell of a performance by Tito. If Machida is the second best fighter next to Fedor, Tito did an amazing job of only getting hit one and half times per minute. His elusiveness must be underrated. I doubt any of Fedor’s opponents could boast such impressive SApM ratings.
Wow, this may be the most effective trolling device since, “Pride was the best – UFC fights are fake!”
I’d like to see, rather than just those few stats, a workup for the entire UFC so that we can see if those numbers actually mean anything in a larger sense.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
We’d also need to see Strikes Landed per Minute so that we could work up an opponent adjustment.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Jan 27, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Nobody appreciates a good troll more than me.
Behold: I bet Brock Lesnar is the best fighter in the world because he has something special:
{runs}
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
by jemaleddin on Jan 28, 2009 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm gonna try to make a spreadsheet of this stat, since fm doesn't stock every fighter, requests?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Liddell, especially the difference between his days of dominance and his recent, sucky days.
by Michaelthebox on Jan 27, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
I think that you just agreed to a three fight deal with Sengoku. Incidentally, your first fight is against Mo Lawal.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jan 27, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
King Mo eats Judo Chops for breakfast.
by Day Man on Jan 27, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Fight? Don’t you mean you love watching him elude a fight?
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
He’s is one of the most fun fighters to watch.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jan 27, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
You mean one of the most fun eluders to watch.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
Smoogy only agrees because Machida topped the list
OWNED SMOOGY
Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com
by Leland Roling on Jan 28, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
As a stats guy, I humbly rec this post
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Yeah...
but who eats the most spam?
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Jan 27, 2009 8:48 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
The question is: Can one substitute canned meat for SaPM numbers in argument with KN?
Second question: Is spam Lyoto’s secret to obtaining mirage-like elusiveness?
by Cannon Jacques on Jan 27, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
You would expect lighter guys who set more of a pace to land more and receive more so a ratio of shots absorbed to strikes landed would make any statistic more applicable across divisions.
If SaPM are an indication of how good a fighter you are then Big Nog could go down as one of the worst fighters in history, yet his style and strengths havn’t really made this an issue. Where does this picture fit in with submission specialists like Aoki or Jacare, or wrestlers like Fitch and Kos. Isn’t this MMA after all not boxing/kickboxing?
To use statistics to rank fighters your going to need alot more analysis than one statistic across a career. Statistics shouldn’t carry much weight compared to a solid analysts outlook and experience. Getting carried away with statistics in complex areas like fighting with it’s large diversity just show a delusional notion of the weight of their analysis.
The stat is good, better than whatever else is out there simply because of the fact that It is tough to lose fights when you’re not getting hit often. Similar to the importance of team FG% in basketball.
good analogy..
Its like saying that team A has the best FG%.. They may not be the “best” team in the NBA but its a really hard to lose when you shoot better than your opponent..
http://weoweoweo.deviantart.com/
by Anton Tabuena on Jan 28, 2009 1:55 AM EST up reply actions
i disagree big time
You could be like Arlovski and only get hit 1 time in 5 minutes and still kit ktfo’d. Stupid post… this has to do with how defensive of a fighter you are… not with how good fo a fighter. If I know i got a good chin, and I know the other guy doesn’t, I’ll go trade punches knowing i’ll get hit to get a hit in… stupid post.
I'm Terrible at Math... However,
There are way too many problems with the SApM Formula. First of all, you cannot compare apples to oranges. You need a constant factor. Each person strikes differently, at a different pace and at different angles and different speeds. No two fighters are alike, which is why it is impossible to have valid SApM numbers. Don’t get me wrong, i too am one for the P4P debate and i can appreciate the complexity and time and thought that went into it.
Until all the fighters have fought the same people, your theory is good, but it really doesn’t say much. You don’t state your source on where you got the stats for how long each fight was, who fought and how many strikes were landed each. At the same time, where is the other side of the story? What about STpM (Strikes Thrown per Minute)? How does that come into play?
I’m a see-it-to-believe-it type, so until i’m certain im not reading bulls%$ i will continue to be skeptical. However, i am very much excited to see if we can’t get this to be a concrete formula used for years to come. Highly interesting. Recd.
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