Complete UFC 94 Betting Lines and Stats

by id1 on Jan 27, 2009 2:36 PM EST Comment 39 comments

Promoted to the front page from the FanPosts by Luke Thomas.

Full betting odds for UFC 94 have just been released by the guys at Bookmaker/Betcris. (Preliminary card odds are listed at the bottom). Betting stats for each fighter on the main card have been included, the opening and current line for each match-up, as well as their last 5 betting lines are listed as well.

On the main card the most overvalued fighters in their last five bouts were BJ Penn and Karo Parisyan while the most undervalued fighters were Lyoto Machida, Nate Diaz and Jon Jones.

UFC 94 is set to become the most bet on MMA event in history and could rival the bigger boxing cards of 2009. While MMA is steadily growing in betting popularity, the handle of major boxing cards still eclipses any MMA event for the biggest sportsbooks. Full UFC 94 betting lines are listed below.

Georges St-Pierre vs. B.J. Penn
Opening Line: Georges St-Pierre -245 vs. B.J. Penn +175
Current Line: Georges St-Pierre -185 (Betus) vs. B.J Penn +166 (Pinnacle)
Trend: Penn

Betting History
Georges St. Pierre -265 vs. Jon Fitch +205
Georges St. Pierre -500 vs. Matt Serra +400
Georges St. Pierre -225 vs. Matt Hughes +185
Georges St. Pierre -255 vs. Josh Koscheck +205
Georges St Pierre -1300 vs. Matt Serra +850

*A $100 bet on Georges St. Pierre in his last five fights would return a $46 profit.

Betting History
BJ Penn -265 vs. Sean Sherk +215
BJ Penn -300 vs. Joe Stevenson +240
BJ Penn -395 vs. Jens Pulver +315
BJ Penn +250 vs. Matt Hughes -310
BJ Penn -130 vs. Georges St Pierre +100
*A $100 bet on BJ Penn in his last 5 fights would return a (-$104) loss.

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva
Opening Line: Lyoto Machida -250 vs. Thiago Silva +225
Current Line: Lyoto Machida -350 (5Dimes) vs. Thiago Silva +226 (Pinnacle)
Trend: Silva

Betting History
Lyoto Machida -220 vs. Tito Ortiz +180
Lyoto Machida -130 vs. Ram Sokoudjou +100
Lyoto Machida -215 vs. Kaz Nakamura +175
Lyoto Machida -355 vs. David Heath +285
Lyoto Machida -600 vs. Sam Hoger +475

* A $100 bet on Lyoto Machida in his last 5 fights would return a $217 profit.

Betting History
Thiago Silva -650 vs. Antonio Mendes +500
Thiago Silva +125 vs. Houston Alexander -155
Thiago Silva -325 vs. Tomasz Drwal +265
Thiago Silva -260 vs. James Irvin +200
Thiago Silva N/A vs. Tatsuya Mizuno N/A

* A $100 bet on Thiago Silva in his last 4 fights would return a $209 profit.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones
Opening Line: Stephan Bonnar -170 vs. Jon Jones +145
Current Line: Stephan Bonnar -160 (5Dimes) vs. Jon Jones +151 (Pinnacle)
Trend: Jones

Betting History
Stephan Bonnar -340 vs. Eric Schafer +280
Stephan Bonnar -450 vs. Mike Nickels +370
Stephan Bonnar +250 vs.Forrest Griffin -300
Stephan Bonnar -185 vs. Rashad Evans +165
Stephan Bonnar -350 vs. Keith Jardine +280
*A $100 bet on Stephan Bonnar in his last 5 fights would return a (-$109) loss.

Betting History
Jon Jones +190 vs. Andre Gusmao -240
Jon Jones N/A vs. Moyses Gabin N/A
Jon Jones N/A vs. Parker Porter N/A
Jon Jones N/A vs. Anthony Pina N/A
Jon Jones N/A vs. Carlos Eduardo N/A

* A $100 bet on Jon Jones in his last UFC fight would return a $290 profit.
** (Note: Jones fought in smaller shows up until his UFC debut, betting lines were not available/posted.)

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Opening Line: Karo Parisyan -350 vs. Dong Hyun Kim +280
Current Line: Karo Parisyan -350 vs. Dong Hyun Kim +280
Trend: Neutral

Betting History
Karo Parisyan -165 vs. Thiago Alves +145
Karo Parisyan -350 vs. Ryo Chonan +270
Karo Parisyan -320 vs. Josh Burkman +260
Karo Parisyan -525 vs. Drew Fickett +425
Karo Parisyan -125 vs. Diego Sanchez -105
*A $100 bet on Karo Parisyan in his last five fights would return a (-$151) loss.

Betting History
Dong Hyun Kim -450 vs. Matt Brown +300
Dong Hyun Kim -300 vs Jason Tan +240
Dong Hyun Kim N/A vs. Hidehiko Hasegawa N/A
Dong Hyun Kim N/A vs. Hidehiko Hasegawa N/A
Dong Hyun Kim N/A vs. Yukiharu Maejima N/A

*A $100 bet on Dong Hyun Kim in his last two fights with would return a $55 profit.
**(Note: 3 of Dong Hyun Kim last 5 fights did not have betting lines.)

Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida
Opening Line: Nathan Diaz -145 vs. Clay Guida +115
Current Line: Nathan Diaz -145 vs. Clay Guida +115
Trend: Neutral

Betting History
Nate Diaz -200 vs. Josh Neer +160
Nate Diaz -165 vs. Kurt Pellegrino +135
Nate Diaz -185 vs. Alvin Robinson +155
Nate Diaz -200 vs. Junior Assuncao +160
Nate Diaz -110 vs. Manny Gamburyan -120

* A $100 bet on Nate Diaz in his last five fights would return a $306 profit.

Betting History
Clay Guida -155 vs. Mac Danzig +125
Clay Guida -650 vs. Samy Shciavo +500
Clay Guida -110 vs. Roger Huerta -105
Clay Guida -115 vs. Marcus Aurelio -105
Clay Guida +160 vs. Tyson Griffin -200

* A $100 bet on Clay Guida in his last five fights would return a (-$33) loss.

UFC 94 Preliminary Card Odds (Released Tuesday, 27th January by Bookmaker)

Akihiro Gono +450
Jon Fitch -600

Manny Gamburyan +115
Thiago Tavares -145

Christian Wellisch +225
Jake O Brien -285

Dan Cramer +165
Matt Arroyo -205

Chris Wilson -355
John Howard +285

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Great writeup

Thanks for the work, I’ll be checking these out again before I get on my flight Friday. Rec’d.

by Day Man on Jan 27, 2009 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Semantics

I’m not sure if you did the calculations like this for every fighter but for Jon Jones at +190, a hundred dollar bet only returns a profit of $190. The other $100 is just your original investment back.

by Day Man on Jan 27, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Te calculations are correct, you get $190 profit.

by id1 on Jan 27, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you mixed up the numbers

by id1 on Jan 27, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry I guess I’m missing something, which numbers did I mix up?

by Day Man on Jan 27, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, thiago Silva was a betting dog going into his matchup with Houston Alexander. Shows what a huge hypetrain Houston was riding on at the time. My have things turned out different. Now Thiago is fighting for a chance to get a title shot and Houston is on the fringe of going back to local circuit shows.

by lbk on Jan 27, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also Stephan Bonnar -185 vs. Rashad Evans +165 very looks strange hindsight

by id1 on Jan 27, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno about that. Evans had both eyes swollen shut and only really won on takedowns. Going into the fight I think people underestimated Evans’ wrestling, but he had very little offensive capability back then.

by Luke Thomas on Jan 27, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Korean Stun Gun currently has awesome value imo.

Yeah, who got the final Death Blow? 'Cause I thought that Hawaiian guy had it comin' to him. - C. K.

by monkeyfightclub! on Jan 27, 2009 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’d love to bet him seeing as how I’m not the biggest Karo fan but he didn’t look very good against Luke Thomas in his last fight (I think Luke should have gotten the decision).

I think it would take a Karo meltdown for him to lose this fight.

by Day Man on Jan 27, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva
Opening Line: Lyoto Machida -250 vs. Thiago Silva +225
Current Line: Lyoto Machida -350 (5Dimes) vs. Thiago Silva +226 (Pinnacle)
Trend: Silva

if you make more money betting on Machida now then you did when the line opened wouldnt that mean it was trending towards Machida

by #5mmafan on Jan 27, 2009 4:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You actually make less now than when the line opened but your conclusion is still valid.

by Day Man on Jan 27, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

^What he said.

Now it costs you $350 to make $100 (instead of $250).

I am the bastard love child of Junie Browning and Diamond Dave Kaplan.

by The_Gaijin on Jan 27, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this might be the reason why i am a terrible gambler.

by #5mmafan on Jan 27, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really see Machida getting TKO’d here guys.

by lbk on Jan 27, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Might wanna get your eyes checked ;)

by iiowyn on Jan 27, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bet the farm on Jon Jones

That is all.

by subo on Jan 27, 2009 4:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Haven’t seen enough of him to know, but if Bonner is taking his horse steroids again, Jones could be in for a long night.

by lbk on Jan 27, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

This fight will be the upset of the night. I was going to bet on GSP when he was -175 but now that he is -265 its too must of a risk to win a $100. Now my money is on Mr. Jones.

by steveoc24 on Jan 27, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anything can happen, yadi ya, but BJ Penn is about 75% as good as people say he is, and about 50% as good as he thinks he is. GSP should be more heavily favored, imo. GSP by rear naked choke in the 4th.

And c’mon. Silva is a brawler; Machida lives to kill brawlers. Should be an exciting KO for the Dragon.

by toxic on Jan 27, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

“GSP by rear naked choke in the 4th.”

Has GSP ever finished a fight by rear naked, and if not, do you REALLY think he locks this in against one of the best BJJ guys in the world?

by lbk on Jan 27, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m saying BJ will be so gassed by the 4th that my grandmother could finish him… or did you miss the part when he just laid there and let Hughes have his way with him?

I guess that’s the thing that bothers me the most about the BJ hype; I have never seen a top level fighter just shit himself that badly.

by toxic on Jan 27, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If that’s the case, GSP is really only 5% as good as his fans think he is. From the way his fans talk, you’d think GSP is a demi-god who can’t be beaten. In their memory, the loss to Serra has been completely blocked off. Penn has lost in the third round ever, with all his fights being competitive. GSP has been submitted and KO’ed in the first round before. Obviously, one of the two is a mentally weak fighter. Take a guess who it is. BJ Penn with no cardio problem = money in the bank.

by cyph on Jan 27, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We all know the Serra win was a total fluke as was proved in the dominating rematch. Other than that, GSP lost to a guy that pounded BJ out for a TKO victory.

How about Penn losing to Jens?

by lbk on Jan 27, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Little Evil back then was a UFC champ and at the top of his game. Pulver has gotten worse and worse over the year. On the one hand you claim GSP’s loss was a fluke and on the next you dismiss Penn for losing to Pulver 6 years ago. One is recent, the other isn’t. One loss is a five round grind, the other is a demolition within two minutes.

BTW, Penn is the only fighter to beat Hughes (and badly at that) during his reign of terror.

by cyph on Jan 27, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no, I was merely drawing a comparison that those loses were flukes with respect to the guys they lost to. Yes, Jens was a champion but we all know he’s nowhere close to BJ’s level and never was even at his best. That was my point. They both have losses on their records that mean nothing to their overall skill levels and they both avenged those losses soon after.

by lbk on Jan 27, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And BTW..GSP beat Hughes down 2 x and brutally one of the times…far more brutal than BJ did. But I digress..GSP is def gonna own BJ this weekend. You can count on that. The GSP of today has too many tools for BJ to handle. Especially at 170.

by lbk on Jan 27, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

GSP did beat Hughes twice. However, Penn is the only one to do it to beat Hughes in his prime. BJ beat him in under a round whereas it took two GSP two rounds to do so both times. But that’s irrelevant.

It should be a competitive fight but anyone who think it’s an easy fight for GSP has their heads in the clouds.

by cyph on Jan 27, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Def don’;t think it’s going to be easy per se, but I do think he’s going to beat Penn more convincingly than he did the 1st time around.

Plus, some might argue that Hughes was still a great fighter when GSP beat him the 1st time. I’ll give you the 2nd time being a bit out of his element but still..he’s matt hughes and he’s still in his young 30’s.

I just hope the fight goes at least 3 rds I’m psyched for it.

by lbk on Jan 27, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m ready to declare whoever the winner is to be a MMA god.

by cyph on Jan 27, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BJ Penn fans saying that someone else’s fans treat their guy like a demigod is so damn ironic.

by iiowyn on Jan 27, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On the contrary, most BJ fans think it’s a difficult fight for either fighter. Only the GSP ones think it will be an easy KO or submission. Which fans are more realistic?

by cyph on Jan 27, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs