Where BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre 2 Fits Into the 2009 MMA Picture

by Luke Thomas on Jan 12, 2009 1:22 PM EST in News Comment 24 comments

Josh Gross explains why 2009 is likely to be the year of major event-type fights and argues the rematch of these two phenomenons is particularly significant:

There's no such concern for the promoter of the biggest fight in January, which comes a week later with an interdivisional masterpiece featuring UFC champions B.J. Penn and Georges St. Pierre.

Getting the HBO 24/7 treatment via a multi-part look at both men on Spike TV, the Jan. 31 bout in Las Vegas could be one of those fights that transcends MMA. Two great fighters in their primes, both ranked in the top five pound-for-pound, meet for the second time in their careers. It has all the elements. Plus, the promotional heft of the UFC helps make this kind of fight more than a battle of young stars.

The layers of this fight are more significant than people realize. This fight is part of a Penn vanity project, but the UFC is granting Penn permission to solidify and stroke his ego because there is actual, sellable substance there of very considerable merit. It's the sort of fight that typifies the "stars are aligning" angle.

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This fight is huge!!

I am really excited to see this one. The 24/7 stuff is going to sell this fight in a way that we have never seen before. I don’t think this is the fight that will push MMA into the main stream acceptance category but I don’t think the big sports networks can ignore it. Though I am a huge BJ Penn fan I am picking GSP to win this on strength and athleticism. January 31 has never seemed so far away !

"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"

by Warhand on Jan 12, 2009 1:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This could – could – be the best selling PPV of all time. Helluva way to start the year.

by subo on Jan 12, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Best MMA PPV or all time PPV?

"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"

by Warhand on Jan 12, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m aiming high here. 91 was huge, 92 beat it by 100-150k and this fight is larger than any that appeared on those two cards. The sky is the limit for this event, as far as I am concerned – and no, I’m no longer satisfied by just coming closer and closer to boxing’s numbers on marquee events. I want to beat it.

by subo on Jan 12, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

by xFenixKnightx on Jan 12, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s aiming high indeed. I regretfully doubt this beats Pac vs De La Hoya.

"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"

by Warhand on Jan 12, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Won't even come close

Not within 3/4 of a million buys

Gimme 1 Round!

by skwirrl on Jan 12, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It will do at bottom 700,000, and possibly over a million. I fully expect it to exceed UFC 92, whatever that number is.

by Michael Rome on Jan 12, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this

I think 1.2 Million to 1.4 million is fair. Thats still at the high end 1 – 1.1 million below DLH vs Mayweather. The sales for that show were beyond insane and its not fair to try and compare anything to it.

Gimme 1 Round!

by skwirrl on Jan 12, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You really couldn't have asked for better execution

of the late-‘08 shows to set up the potential for an absolutely huge UFC 94. Brock got in there and did his thing, it was Upset City at 92 with fireworks all over the place, and the organization’s got a full head of steam heading into the new year. I’d guess there are significantly more new MMA fans following UFC right now than at any time in history, and I’m not being TIC. I mean compared to the current MMA audience in general.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Jan 13, 2009 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know a lot of people

Have and watch Spike TV but I just cant help but wonder if UFC would have made the TUF deal with maybe say, TNT? They used to air WCW Monday Nitro and they have NBA Basketball on all Thursdays plus the NBA Playoffs. Thats a HUGE market to have advertised on heavily. I think if that would have happened then yeah this 3 part show would make a huge difference.

If any new promotion, *cough Affliction *cough could get a deal with them then it would be huge for MMA.

by xFenixKnightx on Jan 12, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

91 had Lesnar – and that probably brought in a bucketload of casual fans/first-timers. 92 had the fight between TUF coaches – again, drawing in people outside the group of folks who usually buy UFC PPVs – and Rampage-Wandy had tons of heat going back years, which probably got a few casual fans in as well.

GSP-Penn II is huge for the fans, but I don’t see it having the mainstream appeal of Lesnar fighting for a title or TUF coaches doing battle. It will do a decent number of buys, no doubt, but I don’t see it getting anywhere near UFC 92.

by lhasafi on Jan 12, 2009 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thats what

This show is for. THIS fight should be getting the numbers and thats why I think UFC is pushing it.

by xFenixKnightx on Jan 12, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Would be amazing PPV numbers if it weren't for Henderson/Franklin

I think that Henderson/Franklin can take away from the potential buys for the BJ Penn night. There are 3 big fights weekend after weekend (including affliction) and I don’t think that the majority of the PPV buyers are like me and going to buy all 3. If the UFC promotoes the Henderson/Franklin night too much then there will be some people who want to buy it on impulse not realizing that they have two more weeks till the BJ Penn Card and then they don’t want to have an extra 90+ dollars on their cable bill.

I do think that the BJ Penn / St. Pierre fight has a lot of merit though, because there are a lot of people out there who would say that both of these guys are their number one and number two favorite fighters.

GO BJ!

by adamdd on Jan 12, 2009 2:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think that, if anything, the Franklin Henderson fight will suffer from BJ/GSP. Most people, if they could only afford one, will hold off for Penn/GSP.

by Dooda on Jan 12, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

93 would have been on spike if it wasn’t for affliction…

Having a free event a weekend before your competitors PPV is like “fluffing” up your consumer so your competitor can get laid.

by mmalogic on Jan 12, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know if that’s possible. I think it’s the other way around. I think Penn vs. GSP could easily take way buys from Henderson/Franklin, and I’m a bit surprised that the UFC didn’t make UFC 93 a free Spike presentation leading up to Penn vs. Pierre.

With that said, the 24/7 show is going to create so many more buys for UFC 94.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Jan 12, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We are seeing a time in mma, when promotions are trying to cash in on “Superfights”. It just so happens that at this time, some pf the aging stars of the early days are nearing the end, and we are finally getting to see some of the fights we have been clamoring for.

Now, we get to see one of the best matches possible, where both guys are arguably at the pinnacle of their careers. I honestly don’t know how much either guy could improve at this point, because they are both so highly skilled right now. GSP is a BJJ blackbelt with good striking, amazing conditioning and now, perhaps, the best mma wrestling around. BJ is a BJJ phenom, has good wrestling and awesome striking and now, seems to be taking conditioning seriously.

I think this is a sign of what we can start to expect a couple of times per year. Fighters getting matched in their prime, rather than fights not getting made until it is almost to late.

Can’t wait and should be awesome!

Eliot Marshall: Bader won. Like I said in the episode, I'm not going to make any excuses. It's my job to be able to deal with when somebody's doing that. It's not his job to change up his tactics.

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by BJJDenver on Jan 12, 2009 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The thing about these two isn’t necessarily that they’re both so skilled and highly ranked, but that they’re both really entertaining fighters, and their career has been interesting. GSP with his bizaare loss to Matt Sera, and BJ with his win over Hughes, then his loss to Hughes, along with his split decision loss to GSP. The stars are definitely aligned for this one.
I like GSP as the winner though by decision again. He just seems so focused right now. Penn is too, but not as much as GSP.

by Dooda on Jan 12, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This current era is the most “potent” MMA we as viewers are experiencing… so far in history.

by mmalogic on Jan 12, 2009 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I still think...

I still think the matchup between Penn and St. Pierre is exactly the same as it was before with a change in their talent… that change being that they are both much better at those skills.

Penn will be a striking nightmare, St. Pierre will be prolific on the floor, Penn has a very good takedown defense, St. Pierre has some big time power. Cardio will be an x-factor, but I furthermore push the point that Penn’s jiu-jitsu could become a big issue as the fight goes on.

Penn picking apart GSP much like the first fight could happen, but I imagine GSP pushing it to the floor. This should be one for the ages. Stylistically, they match up well and counter each other well with DIFFERENT skillset as opposed to harboring the exact same skillsets. They don’t nullify each other by both having unbelievable jiu-jitsu. Penn should have the advantage but GSP has great submission defense and power to get away.

24/7 is only going to make this event even more epic. This event should be the MUST-buy for any combative sports fan, regardless if you are a huge boxing fan. This fight should be unreal.

Editor-in-chief of MMA-Analyst.com

by Leland Roling on Jan 12, 2009 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs