Quick Gambling Spotlight: DREAM.6

by Mike Fagan on Sep 22, 2008 10:48 PM EDT in News Comment 12 comments

With the lines being released less than 24 hours before the show, there isn't enough time to go through a full breakdown of the card. I'll give you my thoughts on the best value for tonight's Dream card.

Gegard Mousasi -200
Melvin Manhoef +200

Jacare Souza -550
Zelg Galesic +425

Mirko Cro Cop -205
Alistair Overeem +170

Dong Sik Yoon -625
Andrews Nakahara +525

Hideo Tokoro -200
Atsushi Yamamoto +170

Yoshihiro Akiyama -1700
Masanori Tonooka +800

Keita Nakamura -450
Adriano Martins +300

Ikuhisa Minowa -290
Masakatsu Funaki +250

Hayato Sakurai -1300
Kuniyoshi Hironaka +700

Shinya Aoki -2500
Todd Moore +1250

Honestly, there isn't a lot on this card. There are a lot of mismatches and the odds reflect that. That said, I picked up Mousasi at -155 when he opened and there's probably a little value left at -200. I think there could be value on Cro Cop at -205, but I can't pull the trigger on it. I also skipped Jacare at -375, and I'm regretting it now that the line has moved.

However, there is a nice little gem here. If you're on 5dimes, you have an even nicer gem. Jump on Minowa. It seems weird to say, but I think Minowa should be a much bigger favorite here. Funaki offers very little anymore and Minowa should be able to take care of him fairly quickly.

My plays tonight:

Gegard Mousasi -155 1.55u to win 1u
Ikuhisa Minowa -325 4.3u to win 1.3u

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Comments

you folks got about 4 hours to bet….

by banter on Sep 22, 2008 10:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The lines on Akiyama/Tonooka and Aoki/Moore are absolutely mental. Accurate, but mental. If I were a gambling man I’d put a little down on Moore, just in case. (Tonooka is good as dead, though.)

Definitely surprised that Overeem is the underdog even if it’s close.

by Chris Nelson on Sep 22, 2008 10:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Aoki is as big or a bigger favorite than the Lil Nog/Sokoudjou line.

by Mike Fagan on Sep 23, 2008 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, never saw that line...

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-2001)
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (+1601)

by Chris Nelson on Sep 23, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoa, where’d you get that? I can only find UFC fights back a few years through zewkey.com

by Mike Fagan on Sep 23, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.mmatorch.com/artman/publish/article_313.shtml

The analysis for that fight is hilarious after the fact.

There’s huge money to be made on Sokoudjou, but it’d be like going into a burning building to try to collect money. Chances are you’re going to burn to death. Sorry for the gruesome analogy, but it’s necessary to project the actual level of devastation that is about to befall the African warrior Sokoudjou here. For his sake, hopefully it’s quick. For your sake, bet on Sokoudjou only if you dislike the actual money you are going to wager.

by Chris Nelson on Sep 23, 2008 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm betting on Hironaka

Sakurai is not what he used to be and I give Hironaka at least a 50% chance of pulling off a decision.

by Kid Nate on Sep 23, 2008 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

I was having a brainstorm similar to all these comments and Sakurai/Hironaka is the one that struck me as being the most exploitable odds. Hironaka isn’t a top welterweight as you can tell by his record but he has fought some tough competition his entire career. He won a close decision against Nick Diaz, and his three UFC losses were to Fitch, Alves, and Goulet respectively; all three being A-level welterweights. Of course, Sakurai is highly skilled and I won’t dismiss the possibility/likelihood of him winning. But like everyone he has his weaknesses. To me, he loses the mental fight every time he loses. See his previous fight against Baron, as well as his loss to Chonan (although that was a while ago).

by KneeToTheFace on Sep 23, 2008 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You think Hironaka is 50/50 to take the fight or 50/50 to win a decision if it goes to the cards?

by Mike Fagan on Sep 23, 2008 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well obviously I was wrong

but I was thinking Hironaka had a 50% chance to win by layNpray decision.

by Kid Nate on Sep 23, 2008 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yuck, that hurt.

by Mike Fagan on Sep 23, 2008 5:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My Pick, not that it matters now

Overeem, I liked this one a lot. Its a bet on Crocop being over.
Manhoef and Galestic, I figured one would pull the upset and I could make a little, but niether did. I put so little on that it doesn’t even matter.
Keita Nakamura. I won this, but it wasn’t some great amount. It was enough to make up for one of the Manhoef and Galestic wagers.
Atsushi Yamamoto. This is were I make most of my money. I was really confiedent about this upset and thats rare in Japanese MMA.

by szucconi on Sep 23, 2008 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs