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Randy Couture a Slight Favorite Over Brock Lesnar

Profile_picture_tiny by Brent Brookhouse on in News

Some sites have already released lines for the upcoming Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar showdown at UFC 91 and at least to open things up Randy is a slight favorite.

Odds from Bodoglife.com:

Randy Couture    -140

Brock Lesnar      +110

 

Couture / Lesnar Fight goes 2:30 of Round 3    -280

Couture / Lesnar Fight does not go 2:30 of Round 3     +220


That is damn close to a pick 'em line for arguably the biggest fight in MMA history.  I couldn't be more amped than I am right now and we're still months away from fight night.  I can say, however, that I'm very tempted to put some money down on the fight going over 2:30 of Round 3.  I think there is a very good chance that this goes to a decision as Brock has yet to show much finishing ability and while I can see Randy winning I don't think he does it by stopping Lesnar early in the fight.

Just in case you wanted to see the difference in the matchmaking of the "unproven stars" in the UFC and EXC here are the odds for Kimbo vs. Ken Shamrock:

Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Fergusson   -600

Ken Shamrock    +400

The UFC absolutely OWNS every other American promotion at this point in every aspect from sheer deep talent in every division to compelling matchmaking on every show.

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I have a feeling that the line may slide more in Lesnars favor as it draws closer to fight time.

by nitro on Sep 2, 2008 8:31 PM EDT   0 recs

Waves of money'll do that to a line

If fights couldn’t change on a single punch (and we haven’t seen how that minifridge on Brock’s shoulders reacts to getting caught yet), I’d sell everything I own and bet Brock/the under.

He won’t just try to mat-hump Randy. He wants blood.

by subo on Sep 3, 2008 9:01 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

“The UFC absolutely OWNS every other American promotion at this point in every aspect from sheer deep talent in every division to compelling matchmaking on every show.”

Geez, take your pom-poms off. Its a big day for the UFC, but you’d have to be ignorant to say their HW division “OWNS” Affliction’s.

by smoogy on Sep 2, 2008 8:33 PM EDT   0 recs

The UFC just stole the biggest money match Affliction could have even hoped to put on in Fedor/Randy, and has the capital to buy off whatever talent Affliction has left if they want , they’re all UFC off casts anyway. Thats assuming Affliction sticks around any longer.

" These guys are dying on the vine. You’re not under contract if the company’s not in business anymore." Dana White

by nitro on Sep 2, 2008 8:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Read closer...

or perhaps write clearer (directed at me)

I meant that as deep talent in EVERY division. Affliction comes nowhere CLOSE to the UFC in regards to depth in EVERY division.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Sep 2, 2008 9:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i.e. Where is the depth for Affliction beyond heavyweight?

There are no significantly deep divisions in Affliction once you get past the heavies.

Also in terms of depth you could make the case for the UFC’s heavyweight division being deeper than Affliction.

With the signing of Couture the UFC has 10 of the top 25 fighters (per the BloodyElbow meta-rankings) and soon Shane Carwin should join the list as well. Affliction has 7 top 25 fighters. Admittedly Affliction is much more top heavy in terms of having 5 top 10 fighters to the UFC’s 4. The average point value for the Affliction heavyweights is 304.57 while the average point value of the UFC’s heavyweights is 226.7.

Regardless…not exactly scientific proof of anything at all really. But just some interesting numbers to digest.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Sep 2, 2008 9:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

On top of the fact that the overall UFC owns Affliction, lets not mince words: the UFC HW division is more interesting at this point than Affliction’s. While Affliction has many of the upper-level fighters, how many “compelling matchups” do they really have? I don’t really care to see Rothwell, Rizzo, or Sylvia against anybody, unless they can get Sylvia against LeBanner. Getting Roy Nelson from IFL is good for the division, but can they match him up with anyone and sell it as a main event or number 2 fight? One of the main reasons Affliction has such a good division is that the HW division is filled with fighters the UFC isn’t terribly interested in.

They basically have three compelling matchups: Arlovski Barnett, Fedor Barnett, Fedor Arlovski. Beyond that. . . eh. Meanwhile, the UFC can put together any combination of Randy, Lesnar, Nogueira, and Velasquez, and have a fight I want to watch. There are also several fights I’d like to see involving Werdum, Gonzaga, and Kongo, and Carwin will soon join the list.

Compelling does not equal height on the division rankings. While Affliction has the higher-ranked fighters, UFC has the more interesting fights.

Meanwhile, you can put together an

by Michaelthebox on Sep 2, 2008 10:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And a phantom end sentence fragment from out of nowhere! Take that!

by Michaelthebox on Sep 2, 2008 10:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Let’s see…

Affliction has 2 fights:

1. barnett vs arlovski

2. fedor vs the winner from above

UFC has a system to produce a lifetime of fights…

by mmalogic on Sep 2, 2008 11:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

UFC has a system to produce a lifetime of fights…

I agree, having Couture around to fight rookie heavyweights until he’s 90 years old is a foolproof plan for long term success.

by George Lucas on Sep 2, 2008 11:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Way to kick that strawman’s ass.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard on Sep 2, 2008 11:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You know, Sherdog is right around the corner.

by Michaelthebox on Sep 2, 2008 11:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great I’m sure you’ll fit right in with all the other people who love to watch Brock Lesnar fight.

by George Lucas on Sep 2, 2008 11:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well...

I really enjoy watching Lesnar fight. So yeah…

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Sep 3, 2008 12:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Seriously dude, what are you doing here?

by Michaelthebox on Sep 3, 2008 12:55 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This is a place for discussion. Sherdog is for surly trash talk George.

by Benicio on Sep 3, 2008 2:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The other dude telling me to go to Sherdog because I think Lesnar/Couture is lame and doesn’t help the UFC’s weak heavyweight division already covered that, but thanks for your contribution to the discussion, Benicio.

by George Lucas on Sep 3, 2008 2:45 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Brother George, did you see Lesnar vs Herring?

couture vs lesnar is a mega fight…

mir vs nog is a good fight.

and the winner of both fighting each other is a mega fight.

Then you have fedor, werdum, cain valasquez.

by the time all those are weeded through you have the big foot silva, shane carwin, etc…

Its all in the “system” Baby!

by mmalogic on Sep 3, 2008 12:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

-Lesnar vs. Herring was an atrociously bad fight.
-Couture vs. Lesnar is going to be almost as bad, but with the extra flavor of litigation and cynicism.
-Mir vs. Nog shouldn’t even be happening, because Mir has done nothing to earn it.
-Fedor and Big Foot don’t even have Zuffa contracts so I don’t know what you’re talking about there.
-Velasquez and Carwin are unproven against good fighters and until they are it’s just meaningless hype.

by George Lucas on Sep 3, 2008 6:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, the line actually opened at +130, so there’s early/smart money on Lesnar. I put 2u on him myself at +110, though I feel a bit dirty about it.

by Mike Fagan on Sep 2, 2008 8:46 PM EDT   0 recs

yeah I don't like betting against Randy either

but damn Lesnar is a no brainer at those odds — he’s younger, much bigger, a better wrestler and Randy is at an age where there can be sudden drop offs in ability. As much as I admire Randy — and I was blown away by his last two fights — he’s not a good bet at these odds.

by Kid Nate on Sep 2, 2008 9:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Randy is PAST that age...

he defied the odds by not having it happen yet. But somewhere around 35-38 is where you’d expect the drop-off to occur. I don’t like betting against him because he has proven himself so many times…but at a certain point he has to be a human being.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Sep 2, 2008 11:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You have to also consider hrt (hormone replacement therapy) as it was never in use in sport as it is now…

by mmalogic on Sep 3, 2008 1:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Didn't you notice a change

about 6 months ago or so? Less mass, and what mass is there sags a bit. Flatter. Old man build just starting. Normally you might get heavier (Randy looks slimmer to me) or wiser, but speed is all downhill, right? Anyway, I’m hope I’m wrong and foolish on that call.

The recent photos of him with Fedor looked that way but if this video really is from 8/26… Meh, I just can’t tell. http://www.xtremecouture.tv/VideoStream/Video_RandyTeachingPro.asp

by swarmofkillermonkeys on Sep 3, 2008 3:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dropped $100 on Brock. Feel a little dirty about it myself, but he looked great in the Herring fight, and now he’s up against a 45 year old wrestler who’s prob going to be 50 pounds lighter than him (Herring was probably 25 pounds heaver than Randy will be, and look how he got out-muscled). I know Randy has the experience, and can never be counted out, but there’s going to come a time when he is simply too old to compete with the top guys.

Lesnar should be the favorite here in my opinion.

by idefinecagefighter on Sep 3, 2008 12:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes a professional wrestler with a 2-1 record vs. a 45 year old actor with a year of ring rust is clear evidence that the UFC has the deepest heavyweight division in America.

by George Lucas on Sep 2, 2008 9:36 PM EDT   0 recs

Read comments...

before posting comments.

I already covered that I meant that the UFC has depth in EVERY division as opposed to a promotion like Affliction which has depth in only one.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Sep 2, 2008 9:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey George

Way to play down the accomplishments of both men.

by nitro on Sep 2, 2008 9:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No doubt he was a stud in college and I’m sure his WWE career is storied, but in the sport of Mixed Martial Arts Lesnar has accomplished significantly less than, say, superstar fighter Jake O’Brien. If he intends to lay on his opponents like he did to Herring for 3 rounds, or getting tapped like a white belt like hid did against Mir, his hype machine is going to stall out in no time at all. Calling him the future of the division is either ridiculous hype or a sad commentary on the state of the UFC’s heavyweight division. I can’t decide which.

And sure, Randy Couture has accomplished much in his career, but do you really think he’s going to be around long enough to be a factor in any division? He knew his time was coming to an end a year ago and that’s why he left in hopes for one last big payday against Fedor. He’ll be in the UFC for two fights, tops, before calling it a day.

by George Lucas on Sep 3, 2008 2:08 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And I thought that I downplayed Randy’s history in an earlier post….holy smokes.

On the flipside, we have 3 time champion, in 2 different divisions, fighting a very game ncaa wrestling champ with a sick physique.

by Heenan on Sep 2, 2008 9:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah because the last time an over the hill 3 time UFC champion came out of retirement to fight a younger, more powerful wrestler it went swimmingly.

by George Lucas on Sep 3, 2008 1:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m not sure how one can argue that the UFC doesn’t dominate in terms of overall depth among the weight classes they field. Aside from Affliction having a significant number of top heavyweights, there’s no real contest unless you believe that the majority of ranking systems are fatally flawed.

Give Brookhouse a break!

by Cannon Jacques on Sep 2, 2008 9:47 PM EDT   0 recs

I gotta grab a parlay with lesnar before 230 in the 3rd.

by Heenan on Sep 2, 2008 9:57 PM EDT   0 recs

Yeah, I put a half unit on this too. You shouldn’t parlay them though, just bet them both straight up.

by Mike Fagan on Sep 2, 2008 10:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Both Orgs have 4 top then heavyweights at the moment UFC with Nog Couture Gonzaga and Werdum and Affliction with Fedor AA Barnett and Tim Sylvia they have Aleksander Emelianenko ranked at 10 so affliction has 5 to 4 but Tim and Aleksander are questionable to me Nog couture and Gonzaga are all in top 5..throw in Mir Lesnar Vasquez Carwin Herring Kongo id say UFC had the deeper division with better Talent overall but again thats IMO

"If I wanted to spend a half hour between two hairy legs I'd go to your mother's house." -Don Frye

by Pitbull on Sep 2, 2008 9:59 PM EDT   0 recs

nevermind this was older rankings new some of that didn’t seem right haha but still with Couture in the fold and the depth of talent compared to affliction id still say UFC was still ahead if just by a small margin

"If I wanted to spend a half hour between two hairy legs I'd go to your mother's house." -Don Frye

by Pitbull on Sep 2, 2008 10:02 PM EDT   0 recs

It is definitely a 5 round title fight.

by nitro on Sep 2, 2008 10:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Of course, forgot it was a title fight. Yeah, then Randy takes it 3 rounds to 2. I figure Lesnar will overwhelm in the first, and probably eeks out a slight edge in another round, but Randy should take it. It’ll be close I figure. No way Randy finishes it.

by pud333 on Sep 2, 2008 10:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i think that had a lot to do with it being a title fight and randy keeping the strap..Lesnar will get heat from this Dana will get heat from this but it comes down to Randy wanting to have a 5 round fight hard to have a 5 round fight without the title on the line

"If I wanted to spend a half hour between two hairy legs I'd go to your mother's house." -Don Frye

by Pitbull on Sep 2, 2008 10:21 PM EDT   0 recs

Which is more of a workaround with the regulators and their stupid rules of not having good solid match-ups as 5 rounders unless they are for a title.

How many great fights have ended way too soon because of the stupid 5 rounds only for title fights rule?

by Benicio on Sep 2, 2008 11:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Do you suppose it’s significantly more than the number of horrible rounds 4 and 5’s we’ve avoided?

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard on Sep 2, 2008 11:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You mean...

the amount of times we’ve not had to watch two fighters continue to not engage after 3 rounds of not engaging (Kalib Starnes vs. Nate Quarry rounds 4 and 5 would have been great…) or watching two completely gassed fighters flail their tired limbs at each other?

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Sep 2, 2008 11:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly. Starnes/Quarry was even the fight I had in mind.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard on Sep 2, 2008 11:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Come on man, you didn’t want to see two more rounds of the screech attack?

by Michaelthebox on Sep 2, 2008 11:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think if Starnes/Quarry had been a five rounder, Quarry would have grown more impatient and probably (hopefully) knocked him out (not that you can fault Quarry for fighting the way he did).

by idefinecagefighter on Sep 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Quarry could have punched Starnes head into the nosebleed seats in the 5th round and it would still be one of the worst fights the UFC has ever shown.

by George Lucas on Sep 3, 2008 12:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That would have made it the best fight ever.

by Michael Rome on Sep 3, 2008 12:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The most satisfying one, anyway.

by Heenan on Sep 3, 2008 9:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thats true. Me and my rose colored glasses again. There have been some amazing fights that I would have given anything to see go 2 more rounds though…

by Benicio on Sep 3, 2008 2:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Me, too. There were plenty of fights that two extra rounds would have improved, but I can’t help but think sitting through long, boring fights for an extra two rounds and missing out on exciting undercard bouts would more than make up for that.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard on Sep 3, 2008 3:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Be nice if they had an option to give “Super fights” the 5 rounds, regardless of title status or not.

by Benicio on Sep 3, 2008 6:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Right. That would be cool.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard on Sep 3, 2008 4:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Randy has never lost a fight by decision. All eight are by either KO or sub. (one by stupid eye lid cut) Either Randy grinds out a decision or Brock wins by brutal gnp in the 1’st or 2’nd. I personally can’t see Randy grinding this one out against Lesnar. Did anyone think Lesnar looked tired a bit after 3? Not me. I sure do hope alot of other people do though, makes betting odds better. Life is funny, he wins when he’s an underdog and will lose when he’s the favorite.

by Tommy7 on Sep 3, 2008 1:08 AM EDT   0 recs

I’m fairly shocked by people’s confidence in either guy. Everyone is sure Brock or Randy will win, nothing inbetween. I think it’s pretty much a tossup, and I think it’ll be real close. Randy will make Brock work a lot harder to win than he did against Heath Herring.

by Michael Rome on Sep 3, 2008 1:11 AM EDT   0 recs

The bottom line is Herring has proven harder to stop then Couture. In all of Coutures’ loses he was stopped. That coupled with the fact that ones ability to take a punch does go down with age. Brock is unproven but from what I’ve seen he has a huge chance to win. All he should focus on these next few months are sub escapes, strikes, defending elbows and endurance. Oh yeah and checking Couture kicks. I think Lesnars knees will be his downfall. Though no one mentioned it yet, theres alot of weight on those things.

by Tommy7 on Sep 3, 2008 1:23 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I want to think Lesnar is going to win for sure because the matchup looks so lopsided, but then I can’t help remembering that I was hoping Couture wouldn’t get hurt when he fought Sylvia and I think I must be overlooking something or other about him that will allow him to beat Lesnar. I seriously can’t wait for this fight and it’s months away.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard on Sep 3, 2008 1:28 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I bet on Couture in that fight though. I seen him getting around Tim’s sloppy striking (but powerful) and out wrestling him for 25 minutes. He can’t do that with Brock. We’ll see soon enough.

by Tommy7 on Sep 3, 2008 1:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not soon enough. We have to wait until November. :-(

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard on Sep 3, 2008 1:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He also outboxed him, Tim never landed a punch the whole fight.

People forget that it’s not all about wrestling pedigree. In a straight wrestling match, Koscheck would kill St. Pierre, but in MMA St. Pierre’s wrestling is way better than Koscheck’s. Lesnar shot from the outside without set-up every time against Herring. It worked on 2 of 3 double leg takedowns, but it will be significantly harder against an olympic caliber wrestler who undoubtedly has better takedown defense than Heath Herring, who is just terrible at it.

by Michael Rome on Sep 3, 2008 2:45 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Let’s just conveniently ignore the 40 lb. weight advantage and being 14 years younger.

by George Lucas on Sep 3, 2008 2:48 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You’re right, I never thought of that! Obviously they are factors in the fight. There are lots of factors.

by Michael Rome on Sep 3, 2008 2:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There’s no denying the obvious physical differences. But Randy has that X factor that is hard to nail down and count out completely.

by Benicio on Sep 3, 2008 2:51 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Couture has to be the favorite… but man Lesnar is a monster.

If lesnar hits you it’s brutal.

by mmalogic on Sep 3, 2008 1:32 AM EDT   0 recs

I have been curious about why Couture would do this. And I think that if/when he beats Lesnar, then he’ll hold all of the cards. The UFC might end up regretting putting so much hype into a still one dimensional fighter.

by penxv on Sep 3, 2008 1:41 AM EDT   0 recs

watch this clip and you’ll understand why Randy is back…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f43Fj7GjL-U

I think somewhere in the back of his mind he thought worst case if he can’t fight anymore he would have a back up career.

by mmalogic on Sep 3, 2008 2:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Plus, wasn’t he just hanging out w/ Fedor not too long ago? They must have discussed how desirable Lesnar is as an opponent.

by penxv on Sep 3, 2008 1:46 AM EDT   0 recs

What is everyone not understanding about his decision? If this show does the business it could, he’ll make 3-5 million dollars depending on how they worked out the new contract. If he loses they already have an alternate plan of fights set up, including Chuck at LHW again, another fight that will make him millions. He will fight a few more times and leave a rich man instead of staying in court battles until he’s 50. Not a hard choice.

by Michael Rome on Sep 3, 2008 2:47 AM EDT   0 recs

I agree. Randy’s window is closing rapidly. Smarter to take the guaranteed payday than hold out for something far less certain.

by Benicio on Sep 3, 2008 2:54 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m glad this fight will be in Vegas. That way we know the pay afterwards. No way can I see Randy making 5 million a fight. I think he’ll be lucky to make 2.5 myself. Also it seems to me Randy can’t get Fedor off his mind. If Randy loses to Brock and goes back down in weight, I won’t understand how Randy has any fans left. We already know every time this guy loses he’s got a reason for you. "That weight class is too big, I got poked in the eye, me and my wife suck, ect.

by Tommy7 on Sep 3, 2008 12:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Even if Randy loses all 3 fights… Randy will have over 4m… and probably closer to 6m-8m when the guaranteed fights are done.

Better than sitting in a court room picking your nose.

by mmalogic on Sep 3, 2008 1:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I been done said his court costs will drive him back into the cage. I’m just saying he won’t come back and get 5 million A fight. Add all three together and I see him breaking 5.

by Tommy7 on Sep 3, 2008 1:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Brother Rome,

Randy got a whiff of the numbers affliction did on there first “histroical” and “most stacked hw event ever in north america”… and realized reaility (as you said):

A fight with Brock will net more duckets for him :)

by mmalogic on Sep 3, 2008 12:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i finally found the audio of the conference and brock seemed pissed the fuck off with all the fedor questions…and randy did keep talking about it he even said this was a way to get in the good graces with the UFC again and then get what he wants in Fedor..Brock is right to a degree Fedor isn’t in the UFC and until affliction tanks he never will be so Randy better get real serious and focus on the task at hand im not a Math Major but 280-225 is 55 pounds that is a huge advantage that is like a fighter at 155 fighting a guy at 210 Big gap there but i don’t count out Randy just there isn’t a lot of Tape to dissect. Randy get your game plan ready buddy you gonna need it for this one

"If I wanted to spend a half hour between two hairy legs I'd go to your mother's house." -Don Frye

by Pitbull on Sep 3, 2008 3:19 AM EDT   0 recs