Fronted by Luke Thomas.

This weekend has brought an absolute storm in the blogoland, with rumors flying of Randy coming back to face Lesnar at UFC 91, in what will almost certainly be a title match, as the first fight in a three-fight deal.  This matchup, and the other rumors about Randy's return, suggest all sorts of interesting possibilities.

Scenario 1: Couture beats Lesnar

If Couture beats Lesnar, this sets up two possible matchups for Randy.  First is the unification match with the winner of Nogueira/Mir.  The second and more interesting matchup is the rumor of a fight with Fedor:

The long-rumored heavyweight superfight between UFC champion Randy Couture (16-8 MMA, 8-5 UFC) and WAMMA champion Fedor Emelianenko (28-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is currently being discussed for an as-yet-unspecified date in January or February of 2009.

I suggested in a previous fanpost that the matchup would never happen.  Both my own and other people's analysis has been that the UFC would never build up Fedor just so he could fight elsewhere.  But the UFC has access to better numbers than any of us.  Its quite possible that they have run the calculus and concluded that the UFC is now untouchable by any upstart company grabbing top fighters: the cost of the top fighters would make it impossible to build brand equity and achieve break-even before going under.  I figured it would be a few more years before this would be the case, but the struggles Affliction has encountered suggest that perhaps the day is already here.  If it indeed is, the UFC doesn't have to worry about Fedor going elsewhere, because he costs too much for upstart promotions to survive his paycheck. 

If a Randy/Fedor fight comes to fruition, the winner of Nog/Mir might be able to fight Werdum in the meantime.  Afterwards, the title could be unified, or Randy's piece of the title could be retired if Fedor wins and then leaves.

Lesnar beats the crap out of Cheick Kongo in his rebound fight.

Scenario 2: Lesnar beats Couture

Lesnar's victory would propel him to the top of the UFC and a unification match against the winner of Nog/Mir.  Either fight presents opportunities for the UFC.  I personally think the Nog/Mir season of TUF will not be adequate to make Nog a star, as Mir simply isn't the right foil.  A Lesnar/Nogueira fight is win/win for the UFC: either Lesnar beats Nogueira and legitimizes himself as an elite fighter, or Lesnar pounds the crap out of Noguiera and gets subbed at the last minute, and Nogueira becomes a superstar.

Alternately, the UFC gets a rematch of Mir/Lesnar.  While this should do great PPV numbers, there is a real risk of Lesnar getting subbed again, which would put him in Rich Franklin limbo if Mir dominates the division for a while to come.

Stop laughing.

Couture's possibilities at this point become a lot more open ended.  He could fight the loser of Nogueira/Mir.  He could still fight Fedor as a superfight.  He could drop down to 205 and have a fight with Rampage or a rematch with Tito, or another fight with Liddell.  Potential money matches abound.  Alternately, if he wants to stretch his career out a little further, he might take a rebound fight and draw the "demolish Cheick Kongo" card.

Regardless, this matchup suddenly saves what looked like a wasteland in the UFC HW division.  Nog/Mir was a stopgap fight, which would be followed by a stopgap fight with a Werdum title shot, which would have been followed by. . . who knows.  This matchup makes Nog/Mir a lot more interesting, and also pushes Werdum's title shot back while adding the possibility of Fedor sticking around.  By the time the free-for-all settles down, one or both of Velasquez and Carwin should have reached contendership level, and Lesnar, win or lose, will be a top threat.  What was a barren division a week ago suddenly looks ripe with possibility.