BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions for UFC Fight Night 15

MAIN CARD

Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer 

Luke Thomas: For Nate to submit Neer, he’s going to need to work from side control. It’s not that Diaz can’t pass Neer’s guard, it’s that he’s comfortable playing an extended guard game, something Neer is praying Diaz does. While Nick is more aggressive and larger, Nate is not. I often call fights against Nate and live to regret it, but Diaz doesn’t have the wrestling to put Neer on his back and Neer’s base is terribly underrated. Neer by decision.

Kid Nate: This is a tough test for Diaz, Neer's grinding ground and pound style is tailor made to push Nate to the limit. Neer's big for 155 too. Luke reminds me that Nick Diaz kimura'd Neer so maybe Nate has the recipe to win. He's clearly being pushed here. I'll go with Nate by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Nate has the benefit of being able to work with his brother Nick, who beat Neer back in '06.  One of the most overlooked aspects of the fight game is the benefit of training with a camp and partners who have not only fought, but beat your opponent in the past.  So this could be a huge boost.  However, Nick is much more aggressive than Nate and if Nate allows himself to get taken down and take punishment while looking for the submission again he is going to make things harder on himself.  Both guys are finishers...but I just can't get past Nate's willingness to sit on the bottom.  A guy like Neer will let his hands and elbows go and as long as he doesn't get too sloppy he can win a decision here.  Josh Neer by close decision.

Mike Rome: Very odd to me that they are promoting this as the main event, I guess they are really starting to get behind Diaz.  I expect Diaz to win again here via submission, but Neer is tough, and an upset would not shock me.  Diaz via submission, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Neer will be Diaz toughest opponent yet. Diaz impressed me with his win over Pellegrino. But I still think Neer will wear Diaz out with the better stand up and be stronger on the ground. Neer by decision.

Michael Fagan: Diaz by submission.

Chris Nelson: Diaz via Submission, round 2.

Clay Guida vs. Mac Danzig 

Luke Thomas: Guida is a very unreliable finisher and Danzig’s has underrated boxing. I see Guida stealing a round or even two but ultimately finding a way to lose this fight. Danzig by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: I'm sensing a pattern here. Guida is the gatekeeper's gatekeeper and like Nate Diaz, Danzig is a TUF champ. Guida of course is a nails tough wrestler who's probably too small for the division. Danzig is a well rounded BJJ based guy who cut down from 170. I expect Danzig to be pushed hard here but ultimately prevail. Danzig by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Guida is a gatekeeper at this point.  At 3-3 in the UFC he isn't on the fast track to the top of the pile.  That isn't to take anything away from Guida, as he is more than capable of beating Danzig here.  I just don't see it happening.  I think Guida will look to push the pace and make a mistake that gets him submitted.  Mac Danzig by submission in round 2.

Mike Rome: This should be a real good fight.  It's no mystery what Clay is going to do when he fights, so it is up to Danzig to survive the wrestling onslaught and catch Guida along the way.  If this goes to a decision it is Guida's fight, Danzig needs to find an opening and finish him.  We saw him do it to Bocek, but Guida is considerably tougher.  I think Guida will get this to the ground over and over, and I suspect he will win on points.  Guida via decision.

Nick Thomas: Guida is non-stop and a top competitor. Will Danzig go in panic mode or stay clam under pressure and be able to pull a submission off. I say Guida by TKO.

Michael Fagan: Danzig by decision.

Chris Nelson: Guida via Decision.

Ed Herman vs. Alan Belcher 

Luke Thomas: A very tough call, but ultimately I see Herman here. The difference for me is that rather than sprawl and brawl, I see Belcher being willing to clinch with Herman. That will provide the opportunity for Herman to take Belcher down and pound on him. Herman via TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: This is a loser leaves town match if I've ever seen one. Herman should prevail by ground and pound ala his match with Scott Smith. Maybe Alan Belcher will find himself challenging Robbie Lawler on CBS soon. Herman by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm going to go with Belcher here, even though my brain is saying that this is Herman's fight to lose.  Alan Belcher with a big shot in the first round for the KO.

Mike Rome: This should be a pretty fun fight.  I think Belcher will recover and take this one in the first round standing.  Herman seems to throw strategy to the wind when he fights, and I expect that he will fight Belcher's fight...and lose.  Belcher via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Both decent fighters, but I see a sharp, focused Herman taking this. Herman by submission.

Michael Fagan: Herman by TKO.

Chris Nelson: Belcher via Submission, round 1.

Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer 

Luke Thomas: I’m torn on this one. Ordinarily I’d say just about any BJJ black belt would tear through Alexander and Schafer could. He’s a tough guy, but it takes a serious will power to wade through Alexander’s punches. And can he finish this in the first round like he needs to? Does Schafer have that ability? We’ll find out. Schafer via submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Houston better win this one, he just signed a five fight contract. But I'm not feeling it. Schafer by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Houston has rare power.  The thing is...does he have anything more?  I'm really hoping that he has learned a lot in the last 5 months.  At the very least Alexander has to learn to keep his head, look for openings and don't force anything.  I'm going to pick Alexander here, but I do so with very large reservations.  Houston Alexander by KO round 1.

Mike Rome:  This is such a tough fight to pick.  Schafer tends to quit as soon as things don't go well for him, and if Alexander lands a big shot I know Schafer will fold.  However, we haven't seen Houston land a single punch since his fight with Alessio Sakara.  Schafer also has done a good job getting guys like Stephan Bonnar and Michael Bisping into compromising positions, the kinds of positions that I don't know if Houston Alexander can escape from.  All that being said, I am going to pick Houston.  

Nick Thomas: I think Alexander will over power Schafer and control him. Alexander by TKO.

Michael Fagan: Alexander by TKO.

Chris Nelson: Alexander via TKO, round 1.

UNDERCARD

Alessio Sakara vs. Joe Vedepo 

Luke Thomas: I’ve learned my lesson with Sakara. They’ll bring him back when the UFC goes to Italy, but until then I give Vedepo the nod despite his dubious record. Vedepo via submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: What does Sakara have to do to get cut by the UFC? I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Vedepo based on his wrestling pedigree. Vedepo by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Go Go Joe Vedepo!  Here's hoping we see Sakara bounced from the UFC after another loss, I just don't think there is enough space on the cards to be taken up by guys who have to be considered below gatekeeper status.  Joe Vedepo by decision.

Mike Rome: Sakara seems to have permanent employment with the UFC as a result of being an "Italian boxer."  He'll get a win here and move on to lose again.  Sakara via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Sakaka by TKO. Thank you, Joe Silva.

Michael Fagan: Sakara by KO.

Chris Nelson: Vedepo via Decision.

Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen 

Luke Thomas: Gouveia is going to crush Jensen. Gouveia via submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Gouveia should take this easily. Welcome to middle-weight, Wilson. Gouveia by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Wilson Gouveia by submission round 2.

Mike Rome: Gouveia is coming off a terrible loss, and he should really take this fight comfortably.  Gouveia via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Gouveia by leg kicks and then submission.

Michael Fagan: Gouveia by submission.

Chris Nelson: Gouveia via TKO, round 2.

Joe Lauzon vs. Kyle Bradley 

Luke Thomas: Bradley is a tough bastard, but the sort of aggression and tenacity Lauzon brings should be the kryptonite Bradley can’t handle. Lauzon via TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Lauzon by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Joe Lauzon by submission round 1.

Mike Rome: I'm noticing a lack of competitiveness in a lot of these fights.  Joe Lauzon should win this easily.  Lauzon via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Lauzon by TKO.

Michael Fagan: Lauzon by decision.

Chris Nelson: Lauzon via Submission, round 2.

Jason Brilz vs. Brad Morris 

Luke Thomas: Brilz is incredibly underrated and alas, Brad Morris is overrated. Morris is going to sleep here. Brilz by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: I'm curious to see how Brilz will do in the UFC. He's built up a nice rep on the smaller circuit. Morris is moving down from heavyweight after getting the Cain Velasquez treatment. I'm going to go with Brilz here. Brilz by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Brad Morris TKO round 2.

Mike Rome: Morris via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Brilz by decision.

Michael Fagan: Morris by decision.

Chris Nelson: Morris via Decision.

Drew McFedries vs. Mike Massenzio 

Luke Thomas: Massenzio is a big time New Jersey prospect and I’ve got great respect for him. I do believe he has the ability to submit McFedries. McFedries is an explosive striker, but doesn’t have much in the way of technical combinations or angles. This is a tough call, so I’ll roll the dice and give Massenzio the nod. Massenzio vs submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: McFedries by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Drew McFedries by KO round 1.

Mike Rome:  McFedries via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: McFedries by TKO round 1.

Michael Fagan: McFedries by KO.

Chris Nelson: McFedries via KO, round 1.

Dan Miller vs. Rob Kimmons 

Luke Thomas: Kimmons is great at submissions, but Miller is even better. Miller by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Miller by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Dan Miller by submission.

Mike Rome: Kimmons via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Should be a close one. Kimmons by submission.

Michael Fagan: Miller by TKO.

Chris Nelson: Kimmons via Submission, round 2.