UFC PPV Success in 2008

by Michael Rome on Sep 12, 2008 10:57 PM EDT in News Comment 24 comments

Adam Swift appeared on Inside MMA to discuss the PPV race in 2008 between the UFC, WWE, and HBO Boxing. Here is the video:

You can also see the full chart he discussed over at MMA Payout.

In short, the UFC has averaged 420,000 PPV buys per show this year, as compared with an average of 440,000 last year. However, these numbers do not tell the whole story. They have done more shows this year, and the June number that brings things so far down is a result of a last minute injury leaving the show with no drawing main event. The extra UK show may bring down the average this year, but it also made a profit this year as opposed to the losses they took doing the shows for free on Spike last year.

There is a lot more to say about UFC PPV business this year. For one, they held their numbers steady all year without relying on Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, and Tito Ortiz. Last year's numbers outside of Chuck and Randy were not good. I am very interested to see how Anderson Silva does against Patrick Cote in October, because last year at this time I would have predicted 200,000 buys, but Anderson Silva may be on a different level as a draw after the July push. Next year's proposed fight with Liddell could be the one that pushes him over the top.

The real story of 2008 on PPV is the UFC's continued dominance even without their historical draws carrying the majority of the load.

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Also note that 440k was the average for all of last year, but the 420k average doesn’t take into account UFC 87, which I believe was estimated close to 600k, or any of the rest of the shows this year, including 91 with Couture/Lesnar which should do over 1 million.

I expect this year to end with an average over 500k.

by Michaelthebox on Sep 12, 2008 6:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think 87 and 88 are both in the low 500’s, which does push the average up a little bit. I don’t believe that Couture/Lesnar will beat a million, but it could, and at worst its going to do 700-750. This is an incredibly successful year on a lot of levels.

by Michael Rome on Sep 12, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it really depends on whether or not it “catches on” in the mainstream media and how well the multi-show buildup goes. Its got a very good chance, Randy vs. Lesnar is the sort of nonsense the mainstream media will be all over like mosquitos on a fat man, and it really speaks to the average person as well. Its the closest thing the UFC can get to Yoshida/Gardner.

Assuming no total shockers like Cote beating Anderson, the UFC will be in incredible position going into next year. Even if Couture/Lesnar isn’t a complete breakout fight, the three-fight set of Couture/Lesnar, the new years card, and Penn/St. Pierre 2 should take the UFC up to the next level in the media consciousness. Two out of St. Pierre, Penn, and A. Silva should break out as superstars, the HW tournament will have its finals, and theres a reasonable chance of Forrest/Rampage 2 in April or May.

by Michaelthebox on Sep 12, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

The fact that Couture is making his return….along side of what Lesnar brings in PPV wise..couple that with a Rampage/Wandy matchup….and I really think that breaks 1 million. I’d be really shocked if it didn’t.

http://mma4real.net/

by Tha Realness on Sep 12, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really? There’s only one UFC PPV that ever broke a million, and it barely did it. It was the perfect storm for Tito and Chuck. Nothing else they’ve done has ever come close. This should do very well, but breaking the million mark…well, not even Hatton-Mayweather did it.

by Michael Rome on Sep 12, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it will definitely break a million… there will be a lot in store for this card.

by mmalogic on Sep 12, 2008 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The two main events are pretty damn great. Is there something else? I don’t even know if adding anything else has any point.

by Michael Rome on Sep 12, 2008 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think he’s talking about fights. I think the UFC hype machine is going to jump up several levels between the countdown show and various tie-ins.

by Michaelthebox on Sep 12, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

UFC 71 was the most hyped PPV they ever did, and it didn’t even come close to a million buys. Because Couture vs. Lesnar brings together two established fanbases, I think Rome is correct that it should easily clear 700k, but the matchup lacks what Liddell vs. Ortiz II had: history, and a lot of personal “heat”. As much as fans love big names vs. big names, I think it comes up short unless they can manufacture some kind of compelling grudge angle between now and then.

by smoogy on Sep 12, 2008 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lesnar, for all his drawing power, brought very little to the table for UFC 87’s buyrate, from what everyone seems to know. There was no vast improvement over UFC 83, if there even was one at all.

by D.Capitated on Sep 12, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You think GSP/Fitch drew anywhere near the same level of attention GSP/Serra 2 drew?

by Michaelthebox on Sep 12, 2008 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would say GSP is probably a good draw for them, to be honest. I think people want Lesnar to be a bigger draw over the long run(particularly after losing to Mir in front of all those new PPV buyers) than he might actually be.

by D.Capitated on Sep 12, 2008 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s a good draw, but GSP/Serra 2 was a MUCH bigger fight than GSP/Fitch. Theres plenty of reason to think Lesnar at least added something to the buys. Not to mention, Lesnar going into 91 is a much different and likely better-drawing fighter than Lesnar going into 87.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make. Lesnar’s presence in this fight is going to cause all sorts of interest, interest that would not have been there for his fight with Herring.

by Michaelthebox on Sep 12, 2008 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Couture/Lesnar is a much more sellable fight than Liddell/Rampage; for all the heat among the hardcore fanbase about the matchup, Rampage was still unknown to the casual fanbase and to the American public.

Couture/Lesnar is a much different animal than Liddell/Rampage. Its a different animal as well than Liddell/Tito, but there are a LOT of sellable points to Couture Lesnar, plenty to work with in building up the matchup.

by Michaelthebox on Sep 12, 2008 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the buys will definitely be higher than 1m… now if couture can just get his head out of his ass and stop talking about fedor he’ll make even more money.

Rampage v Silva wasn’t even needed in terms of content but it will help with the buzz and conversation surrounding the card (more people watching per buy, etc…) – not so much the direct buys… name a casual fan you know who’s gonna buy because of rampage vs silva? Now how many hardcores weren’t planning on buying because rampage vs silva wasn;t on?

Now figure how many fans will make their buys an “event” at their house because of that fight being added… the viral effect will increase.

The reason it will do the numbers is not because of anymore fights being added but what is planned for the promotion of it and the research already done.

The biggest fear right now is Couture injuring himself at this age….

by mmalogic on Sep 12, 2008 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lesnar is no chump, he knows what he’s doing. It’s early now, but in a matter of weeks he’ll be trash talking Randy’s age and size.

Analyzing what Lesnar added or didn’t to UFC 87 is misleading. He was promoted for 1 minute of the countdown special, had none of the ad time, etc. Fitch is a nothing draw, Lesnar helped it do the number it did.

by Michael Rome on Sep 12, 2008 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention, a lot of people were hesitant on Lesnar after his quick loss to Mir. Slapping Herring around for three rounds completely changes his outlook heading into 91.

by Michaelthebox on Sep 12, 2008 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who says Fitch drew it? GSP drew the vast majority of those people. There’s zero proof that Lesnar’s inital drawing power was anything more than initial novelty. In fact, the number of first time PPV buyers and the following PPV numbers indicate exactly that.

by D.Capitated on Sep 12, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There’s very little proof one way or another. There’s online proof of the way that Lesnar drives traffic far more than just about anyone, and that’s across pretty much all websites. There’s also proof using the google numbers that measure interest the night of the show that interest in Lesnar was higher in many places than GSP.

by Michael Rome on Sep 12, 2008 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To follow that up, from Dave on UFC 87:

“As far as per capita interest, the top ten cities in the world were Halifax, Toronto, Winnipeg, Minneapolis, Honolulu, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, Las Vegas and Ottawa. Southern California, Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, Tampa, Orlando and Houston were also strong U.S. markets. In every U.S. market except New Orleans, the interest in Lesnar greatly exceeded St. Pierre to a point it shocked almost everyone, with most of UFC’s top markets double except Honolulu and Boston which were neck-and-neck. In Eastern Canada, St. Pierre was tons bigger while Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver were even, and Toronto was actually slightly ahead for Lesnar.”

by Michael Rome on Sep 12, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, just think that was 2 years ago with all the hype going towards Liddell/Ortiz 2 for the most part…also the average for PPV buys wasn’t even 300K in 2006…now it’s over 400K…then add to the fact how many more casual fans are interested in the sport…couple that with they hype they’ll put behind Couture returning(which has already started) and Lesnar’s fan base? Then who doesn’t want to see Rampage/Wandy 3? Shit, they surpassing 1 million buys IMHO.

http://mma4real.net/

by Tha Realness on Sep 13, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing worth noting: Adam is making guesses on the UFC numbers since they are not public. Dave Meltzer usually comes through with what most consider solid numbers, but the reality is that those are still not actual totals.

by Lynchman on Sep 12, 2008 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The numbers used here are a combination of Dave’s numbers and the numbers ESPN used in a recent special.

by Michael Rome on Sep 12, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The rumor regarding Cotto/Margarito is in excess of 500,000. That’s all anyone knows.

The only problem comparing HBO PPV to UFC is that, well, they’re totally different. HBO PPV is a distributor. UFC is the promoter, sanctioning body, and distributor.

by D.Capitated on Sep 12, 2008 8:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs