UFC 87 Previews and Betting Odds

by Nick Thomas on Aug 6, 2008 9:31 AM EDT Comment 18 comments

From MMA Fight Weekly, Dana's trip to Toronto and Fox News.

BloodyElbow.com's Michael Fagan will have his UFC 87 gambling write-up in a day or two so keep your eye out for that:

Georges St-Pierre -350
Brock Lesnar -255
Kenny Florian -145
Manny Gamburyan -345
Demian Maia -255
Luke Cummo -145
Cheick Kongo -550
Andre Gusmao -240
Chris Wilson -325
Ben Saunders -285

Jon Fitch +280
Heath Herring +205
Roger Huerta +115
Rob Emerson +275
Jason Macdonald +205
Tamden Mccrory +115
Dan Evensen +400
Jon Jones +190
Steve Bruno +265
Ryan Thomas +225

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Comments

I put $5 on Herring and Huerta.

by lovingmma25 on Aug 6, 2008 10:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dont waste 2 1/2 minutes

watching the Dana white Video

all you gotta do is...

by imapimp08 on Aug 6, 2008 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’d say both the GSP-Fitch and Lesnar-Herring lines are farther apart than they should be. I’m not even sure that Lesnar should be the favourite.

by AJB on Aug 6, 2008 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I could see Lesnar being the favorite if he was fighting Mike Tyson.

by lovingmma25 on Aug 6, 2008 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heath recently lost to a smaller, weaker fighter with an almost identical skill set.
What about Lesnar being favored seems odd?

by Simco on Aug 6, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

... Lesnar not yet having defeated anyone in the heavyweight division.
... Lesnar not yet having made it past the mid-way point of one round in the UFC.
... Lesnar not yet having proven anything at all to anyone vs. Herring having been around forever and having demonstrated the ability to survive against some of the best heavyweights in the world.
... etc.

Oh, and Herring was injured in that fight against “a smaller, weaker fighter with an almost identical skill set” so don’t let that one fight and its outcome dictate your entire view of how this fight is going to go.

by Kierkegaard on Aug 6, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just wonder what is the basis of having Lesnar as the favorite? Who is deciding this? It just doesn’t make sense, it didn’t make sense in his fight with Mir and it really doesn’t make sense in this fight with Herring. Are the bookies looking at his physical features only? Ok, he is a large man with high body definition – We get that! What else? Oh yeah, college wrestling that he has not been consistent in practing.

by lovingmma25 on Aug 6, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The basis has nothing to do with MMA skill or history

Bookmakers adjust lines get the most even amount of bets split between the two opponents. Say they opened Brock as a +1000 favorite with Herrings line at +750. If 75% of the people are taking Herring at +750 than they will adjust that line down to -750 / +500 or something along those lines. They want everything split down the middle to minimize losses.

Since Brock has a big time name and reputation, alot of people are putting some coin on him at his -255 line. So it doesn’t matter who’s better, just who people are putting money on.

by B Money on Aug 6, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, I never knew that. I don’t really place large bets, just a few bucks here and there, but for some reason I always thought the favorites and underdogs were chosen based on skill and win/loss record.

by lovingmma25 on Aug 7, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Macdonald by mma experience. I’m very surprised to see him positioned so far away from Meia, and I’m saying this as someone who blindly votes for the bjj guy over everyone else.

by Simco on Aug 6, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think this has to do with the perception that Macdonald’s standup is not threatening and, on the ground, he’s completely outclassed. I think the feeling among a lot of people is that the one area where Macdonald could finish the fight would put him right into his opponent’s strongest suit.

by AJB on Aug 6, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MacDonald does have experience. But Maia is the real deal. He’s shown in his couple of UFC fights already that he can absolutely finish on the ground, which is the only place MacDonald’s really dangerous. This could be a fantastic fight, but I think Maia being the favorite in that one is absolutely right on.

by Kierkegaard on Aug 6, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're underestimating

MacDonald’s striking. He can use his length well and I think he will in this fight.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 6, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe.

I absolutely might be underestimating his striking. But except for the Doerksen fight I’ve never seen MacDonald really come close to dominating somebody with striking (I didn’t see the Singer fight). I can’t decide how much weight to give to the KO of Doerksen because it was Doerksen’s third straight loss by KO/TKO. It could be that MacDonald will come in and try to dominate standing and keep the fight there, and maybe he’ll be successful doing it. But based on the MacDonald fights I’ve seen, he seems most dangerous on the ground, and that seems to be where he usually tries to take the fight. If he does that in this fight, I think Maia will dominate him.

by Kierkegaard on Aug 6, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you seen...

Maia’s BJJ, he’s on his way straight to the top. Besides Macdonald’s strength is his grappling. He’s won 16 of his 20 fights by submission. That said I think Maia has the best pure Jiu Jitsu in the world right now.

by B Money on Aug 6, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs