Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring at UFC 87: A Gambler's Analysis
by Luke Thomas on Aug 4, 2008 11:07 AM EDT
in MMA News
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PrintI like Desert Dog's line of thinking:
Lesnar's game plan will be just what you would expect takedown, control, and then strike like a spaz who forgot his Ritalin. Brock's just so damn excited he really gets to hit people he gets a little out of control. He'll have to maintain control and deliver damage each round. Securing takedown after takedown won't be enough to win a decsion if Herring can control the standup and deliver damage there. All things even between control on the ground and control in the standup and the judges will side with the stand up almost every time.
I like this match up and put the odds close to even, with a slight edge to Lesnar due to his power and agression, but even with that edge the odds dictate backing Herring or no bet. There's no value in betting on Lesanr as a 2 to 1 favorite. Most books have Heath Herring at about +200 with the best odds being + 215 at SportsBook.com.
Herring doesn't get credit on a couple of accounts.
First, he's extremely durable. Not even Fedor could put him away. CroCop stopped him with a vicious liver kick, but in general, Herring can take serious punishment without losing focus. This is part toughness and part experience rolled together.
Second, Herring has faced several enormous top-control wrestlers before. His wins over Erickson and Kerr are legendary. While he suffered a loss to O'Brien, I accept that Herring wasn't physically able to compete in top form. I also add Tony Aponte adding more cardiovascular endurance to Herring's game.
I won't ever say Herring's going to be able to win a sprawl and brawl contest. Herring is going to the floor. Period. However, I don't see Lesnar finishing Herring on top and I do see Herring being able to find some openings in the stand-up enough to disrupt Lesnar's gameplan. There are still a ton of unanswered questions about Lesnar including the sturdiness of his chin, his cardio in later rounds, his ability to pass guard, his overall submission defense and his patience in implementing his gameplan. By contrast, Herring has more than enough patience and experience with limited skill set wrestlers to know when to pick his shots.
If you think Lesnar is going to steamroll Herring, think again.
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Steamroll?
Nope. It’s going to be three rounds of Herring’s head getting smashed flat.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 4, 2008 11:23 AM EDT reply actions
Is that because of Bock’s AWESOME striking on the ground? Wait, did I say awesome? I meant AWKWARD. Sorry.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
It's more because...
Herring couldn’t stop a takedown from a jr. high wrestler. It isn’t going to be pretty…but I don’t see anything more than Lesnar on top throwing big ol’ awkward clubberin’ shots at Heath’s head.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 4, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously – go watch the Herring/Kongo match again. Lesnar needs to be worried about taking Herring to the ground because, easy as it seems in the beginning, he’s got the technique to switch things up quickly.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
Herring is going to hit Brock a few times in this fight, and he’s going to hit him hard. This fight will be a test of Brock’s chin, and his heart. But it’s also against an opponent that he is more than capable of beating. He’s fought well against a former champ, and if he performes well in this one, even if he loses, the UFC isn’t going to bail on him. He’s to big of a fish to throw back in the pond, especially with the new MMA organizations trying to make a move right now.
I’d lay money on Heath. He is a solid fighter with lots of experience Brock Lesnar managed to lose to the announcer of the WEC shows for gods sake.
No offense to Mir, but I think the UFC is babying Lesnar because he brings a lot of wrestling fans to the UFC. The UFC probably thinks Heath was never that great and bit over the hill at this point. But he’ll probably be able to beat Brock on experience alone.
Herring may be ver the hill, but he’s younger than Brock. :-)
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
Things in Herring's favor
Leg locks: Herring, while not at Mir’s level, is certainly more of a submission guy than Lesnar. And while his record shows a lot of wins by chokes and arm locks, he’s always had excellent leg locks, and as Lesnar showed us last time, wrestlers have a tendency to fall for that.
Striking: Does Lesnar have a striking game? He sorta pushed Frank Mir over, and then roboticly smacked him (on the back of the head), but I didn’t see anything to write home about. If he decides not to take this fight to the ground – and the choice is clearly up to Lesnar – he could have some problems.
Technique: Anybody who watched Herring’s fight against the stronger Cheik Kongo saw that taking Herring down isn’t that big of a deal. But once on the ground where technique beats strength, he’s great at reversing. Unless Brock has decided to get serious about technique outside of wrestling, he’s going to be susceptible to the same arm-lock reversals.
Steroids: He doesn’t take them, that we know of. People always talk about the ways to win in the octagon, but there’s a real easy way to lose. Looking like he does and working out with Sean Sherk certainly doesn’t do a lot to convince people that he’s entirely clean. After that embarassing loss to Mir, Brock has every motivation in the world to try to get an edge.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
The steroids point is ludicrous. It’s not just that he tested clean in February, but that he looks significantly different than he did while in the WWE on steroids, and his body shows many of the usual effects from getting off of them. Everything else is right.
Hey, I’m willing to believe that he’s off steroids. Or he’s switched to different stuff. This is the problem with that kind of behavior: it makes everything suspect. I’d like to be able to say that all of the fighters I like are clean, but I have to believe that some of them are just using things there are no tests for.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
Yeah but its Heath Herring. He’s batting .500 since he left PRIDE. And it hasn’t been .500 against high quality opponents. Over the hill doesn’t necessarily mean old; it just means that someone isn’t at their peak anymore.
Basically he was solid to good in Pride (from what I saw) but has really been struggling since then (based on his record).
I too think Lesnar will gas. He was gaping for air during the Mir fight and he won’t be able to finish Herring quickly. Herring just needs to weather the early storm, sweep, and finish.
For what it's worth..
I think he won’t be quite AS crazy in his approach to the fight. I think he was under the impression that Mir could be pounded out easily if you just go nuts on him.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
by Brent Brookhouse on Aug 4, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Am I the only one that noticed after Lesnar’s fight with Mir that he was out of breath? Not sure if that would be attributed to his large size or the Octagon jitters.
All those muscles require a tremendous amount of oxygen. Seriously. Which is why beach muscles of the kind Lesnar has concentrated on building aren’t terribly useful in MMA.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
Hopefully Lesner's Stand-Up has improved
His punches against Mir were all arm. He wasn’t putting his hips into them. If he’s worked on his boxing and can land a few of them, he’ll probably be able to TKO Herring.
I expect that this will be a great fight and I think it could prove to be a better match up than some people expect. Herring had a ton of energy in his fight with Kongo and if he holds true to the training that got him there (and why wouldn’t you against Brock Lesnar?) these two could really be laying into each other for around the full three if Brock has a solid chin (since we know Herring does).
If Brock has improved his technical striking and submission defense, he’s going to be a huge threat to Heath. If you’ve watched any video of Brock training, the guy is an absolute physical monster. I feel bad for anyone that has to fight him when (if?) he improves the technical aspects of his MMA game. Because physically, I don’t believe any heavyweight is in his class.
I posted a comment in another thread last week that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Herring get a submission victory in this fight. He’s got tons of experience, he’s very durable (even in losses, he doesn’t get finished that often), and we just really don’t know much about Lesnar’s abilities yet, especially after the fight gets out of the first round. I think way too many people are severely understimating the value of Herring’s experience in this fight. I hope Herring does win.
I agree, it seems that a lot of people are on the Brock Lesnar bandwagon. He hasn’t proved anything yet. I think Herring can submit him as well if not get the TKO victory.
Yeah, but you should be aware of the inherent expectations that come with being a world-class wrestler (not to mention a world class athlete). Sure, there’s something of a bandwagon, but it’s not for nothing.
Granted it's not for nothing...
but in the world of mma – he is unproven. We all should know by now that sheer brute strength and just a wrestling base will only carry you so far. I know he has been training BJJ and is working with Pat Militech. That will help him in the long run, but as for right now, I personally would not place any money on him just yet.
I’m on Lesnar here, and I agree with what Brent said. I’ve come down a lot about how confident I am with Brock in this fight, but I still think I have a lot of value when the line opened at -200.
There are obviously lots of questions about Brock, and if doesn’t have a chin, this might be closer than I think, BUT
Heath Herring is not a good fighter. Period. He showed a lot of potential coming up, and at one time may have been a top heavyweight, but that time has come and gone. He got taken down at-will by O’Brien, Nogueira dominated him on the feet and took him down all throughout that fight, and he lucked out in his victory over Kongo. I don’t remember the Imes fight, but considering he took him to a decision, I imagine it wasn’t very impressive.
What Herring has going for him is 1) experience and 2) KO power. That’s about it. Brock’s bigger than him, faster than him, stronger than him. His wrestling is going to be too good for Herring to stop. From the brief time we’ve seen him in the ring/cage, it looks like he hits like a f’n truck too.
Also…who’s Herring’s best win over his 40 pro fights? Tom Erikson when Tom Erikson still kind of meant something? An undersized Igor?
Lesnar is probably an impressive enough athlete to beat nearly any heavyweight out there. However, I’m not exactly sure how anyone could be overly confident in him beating Herring unless you think his athleticism and wrestling prowess trump all other variables. While Herring hasn’t been stellar in the UFC, I think most would agree that he’s got a pretty diverse game and a wealth of experience. Lesnar could show he’s a more complete fighter, but he hasn’t up to this point.
re: Lesnar, his cardio and physique
http://69.46.29.2:8080/absoluteig/gallery/K-1/K-1%20DYNAMITE!!%20USA/weigh-ins/01BrockLesnar.jpg
http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/9724/44715ks1.jpg
http://www.ufcscene.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/ufc81_brock_lesnar_vs_frank_mir.jpg
This doesn’t look like a guy who has “beach body” muscles. He’s big as a mountain, but he doesn’t have really outstanding definition by any means. He looks like he has pretty functional body building.
As for his gas tank…maybe it isn’t elite, but the dude was an elite college wrestlers. Those guys don’t usually gas out easily. I really don’t think Herring’s going to have a huge edge in this department.
I think we have different definitions of beach muscles.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
This fight makes me nervous, just like the Mir fight. I am a really big Lesnar fan because i am a minnesota wrestler myself. I do not think that conditioning will be an issue. i watched him wrestle countless times in college and never saw him gas once. I do imagine that u would need more conditioning in the ufc because u get hit, but he is an allstar athlete and i think he will be prepared. I think this fight will be based on one thing: can lesnar control himself. Herring, although not an exceptional fighter, does havea ton of experience. If Brock comes out like a mad man again he is going to get caught. Hopefully he learned from his fight with Mir.
He wasn’t carrying around near as much muscle as an amateur wrestler as he is now. He’s also a lot older and more beaten up than he was then, and probably more likely to gas.
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
I also think Brock will be very good for the sport if he can win. That is why all of u should be rooting for him. He brings in the whole pro wrestling fan base. Keep in mind as an amateur wrestler i absolutely despise proffesional wrestling, but any new fans off mma are good. GO BROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the reason I’m NOT rooting for him. WWE fans are the worst!
UFC needs boxing fans, not WWE’s fans.
I thought they needed MMA fans. Silly me. :-)
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
fuck lesnar he has 2 fights and he lost his first ufc fight and the only reason he is in the ufc is because he was in wwe witch is a fucking joke any 1 that like wwe is a dumb ass!! he should not even be in the wec there r other fighter that have to work there ass off and they are way better then lesnar and dont even make it to the wec!! HE IS A JOKE!!!!! and the ufc should be in barest to have him in the ufc!!!!!!
Some ppl are just stupid
How many proffessional wrestlers have made it into the ufc? Oh yeah thats right. What a lot of u idiots dont seem to realize is that brock was a world class amateur wrestler. The only thing that translates better than amateur wrestling in the octagon is grecko roman wrestling. Until recently wrestlers absolutely dominated mma. In a lot of cases they still do. The only thing that has changed is everyone and there brother trains wrestling hardcore now. Brock has a legitimate chance to be a good mma fighter and that is due to the fact that he was a very good amateur wrestler. He does have size and speed, but a lot of ppl have size and speed. Stop looking at brock as a proffesional wrestler, it was a job. I am sure a lot of ppl in mma have had jobs. If heath herring worked at home depot would u say” oh that stupid fuck was a cashier”? Of course u wouldnt because it isnt relevant. Neither is brock being a pro wrestler.
Fans
And mma needs as many fans as possible. The more fans it has the more accepted it will be and bigger it will become. That is what will make little kids decide that they want to be fighters. Not boxers or baseball players. Any fan is a good fan. The future of the sport depends on kids deciding that they want to be in the UFC someday. So stop being idiots. Brock is good for the sport.
The type of fans Lesnar will attract are the type of fans MMA doesn’t need. WWE has the worst human beings as fans in the world. They will latch onto UFC like the sheep they are, ruin it, then move onto the next fad.
A Lesnar loss is the best thing that can happen to MMA. Trust me. If he loses, people will actually take MMA seriously seeing as how a huge WWE wrestler comes in and gets killed, if he wins, it will show a WWE wrestler can waltz in and compete and that makes the sport look bad.
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