The $100 Experiment: WEC 35

by Carl P on Aug 3, 2008 1:00 PM EDT

WEC 35 is later tonight, and it should be a good indicator of success for my general MMA gambling strategy. My gut tells me that since MMA is still a relatively new sport, the lines are often incorrect, even on cards with lots of well-known names. WEC 35 features a lot of fighters that your average MMA fan has never heard of. There's not much footage of a lot of these fighters, and I have a feeling that some of the lines have been put up without much thought or analysis. Here are my picks for tonight:

Stann vs. Cantwell, $1 on Cantwell @ +300. I think Cantwell is a live underdog here at +300. Stann isn't a very technical striker, and he caught Cantwell in their last fight. I could see that situation easily being reversed here. Also, Stann came in at 201.5 pounds. I always think its a bad sign when a fighter comes in that much underweight.

Miller vs. Grispi, $2 on Grispi @ +160. Here's a good example of what I was talking about above. A wikipedia search for "Micah Miller" turns up the page for the November 2003 Playmate of the Month. There is very limited footage of both fighters, and given all the hype surrounding Grispi, the case for Micah as the favorite is slim.

Moore vs. Roller, $2 on Moore @ -200.

Budnik vs. McIntyre, $2 on Budnik @ -200.

I don't think that Moore and Budnik will have any trouble with their fights. Again, not many people know much about either fighter in either fight. What are the true lines in these fights? I honestly don't have a great idea, but I'm betting the oddsmakers have even less of an idea. For these last two wagers, I'm betting more on my belief that the lines are screwy than on my belief that the fighters will win. My bankroll at the end of the night will tell me how much of an idiot I'm being.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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I’ve got 5 on Hicks at +190, and 5 on Micah Miller at -170. I’m not on the Grispi train here yet…that could change after tonight though.

by Tim Burke on Aug 3, 2008 6:15 PM EDT reply actions

I forget who it was, but someone was on here awhile ago talking about how the Vegas/off-shore bookies are some crazy monolith of information and never put out bad lines. But the reality is that you’re right. And there’s always going to be a lot of value in MMA betting because the sport will never be mainstream enough to get closer scrutiny.

I also agree with your comment about Stann and weight. It always makes me really nervous when a guy comes in way under the weight limit. I’ve been trying to figure out a way to do some data analysis of it, but it’s hard to find older, non-UFC lines and weigh-in results. Babalu came in at 201 against Whitehead (who’s pretty huge at 205), and that went well for him.

Regardless of the results and even if you’re handicapping is off (which I’m not judging at all), A+ reasoning and logic behind each pick.

Good luck tonight.

by Mike Fagan on Aug 3, 2008 7:52 PM EDT reply actions

Great calls tonight Carl. I was reading that there was a huge swing on the Moore fight in the minutes leading up to it, in Roller’s favor. So, Moore might have come in hurt or something.

I wasn’t quite as successful, obviously.

by Tim Burke on Aug 3, 2008 11:47 PM EDT reply actions

I saw the swing as well, and did a quick news search on Moore, but couldn’t find anything, so I threw another 2 dollars on him… an incredibly stupid idea. Aside from that, all my picks won.

I won $3 on Cantwell, $3.20 on Grispi, and $1.11 on Budnik. Lost $4 on Moore. That puts me up $3.31, my most successful night of MMA gambling so far. This gives me some confidence that my strategy isn’t so bad after all…

by Carl P on Aug 4, 2008 2:42 AM EDT reply actions

Roller was a good college wrestler and I was a part of that last minute swing (although a minor on, I only put $4 on him). My only loss of the night was Prater, but it was a minor one. Great call on the Cantwell win, looking back the fact that Stann looked so small and the first fight and Stann never getting out of the first round pointed to him loseing, but I wouldn’t have had the gut to pull the trigger. Great job by you.. My other wins were Varner and Grispi.

by szucconi on Aug 4, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions