WEC 35 is later tonight, and it should be a good indicator of success for my general MMA gambling strategy. My gut tells me that since MMA is still a relatively new sport, the lines are often incorrect, even on cards with lots of well-known names. WEC 35 features a lot of fighters that your average MMA fan has never heard of. There's not much footage of a lot of these fighters, and I have a feeling that some of the lines have been put up without much thought or analysis. Here are my picks for tonight:
Stann vs. Cantwell, $1 on Cantwell @ +300. I think Cantwell is a live underdog here at +300. Stann isn't a very technical striker, and he caught Cantwell in their last fight. I could see that situation easily being reversed here. Also, Stann came in at 201.5 pounds. I always think its a bad sign when a fighter comes in that much underweight.
Miller vs. Grispi, $2 on Grispi @ +160. Here's a good example of what I was talking about above. A wikipedia search for "Micah Miller" turns up the page for the November 2003 Playmate of the Month. There is very limited footage of both fighters, and given all the hype surrounding Grispi, the case for Micah as the favorite is slim.
Moore vs. Roller, $2 on Moore @ -200.
Budnik vs. McIntyre, $2 on Budnik @ -200.
I don't think that Moore and Budnik will have any trouble with their fights. Again, not many people know much about either fighter in either fight. What are the true lines in these fights? I honestly don't have a great idea, but I'm betting the oddsmakers have even less of an idea. For these last two wagers, I'm betting more on my belief that the lines are screwy than on my belief that the fighters will win. My bankroll at the end of the night will tell me how much of an idiot I'm being.