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The $100 Experiment: UFC 88

Bodog just posted its odds for UFC 88, so here are my preliminary bets with some analysis:

Liddell vs. Evans, $9 on Liddell @ -260.  I really like Chuck here.  Fighters like Evans were tailor-made for Chuck, and especially after Evans's lackluster performance against Tito Ortiz, I really don't see any way that he wins this fight.  This is the largest single wager I've made on a fight since I started betting on MMA.

I'm also thinking of putting money on Marquardt and Yoshida.  Bodog has them at -125 and +165 respectively.  I like Marquardt a lot at those odds and may throw $4 or $5 down on him.  I'm not hot on Yoshida at +165, but the line isn't likely to get any better, especially considering reports that Karo's been suffering from panic attacks.  If the line creeps near +200, then I'll bet on him.

I don't much like Hamill, Franklin, Hendo, or Palhares.  Too many unknowns in the Hamill/Franklin fight to put down any money.  If Hamill tries to slug it out, he goes down.  If he fights smart, he could pull out a victory.  Franklin no longer has the size advantage he's used to having.  I just don't see any value in either fighter here.  A similar situation with Hendo/Palhares.  Palhares has sick jiu-jitsu, and Hendo's got a sick left hook... too many ways for this fight to end in a flash for either fighter to make a compelling argument either way.

On a completely different note, you might notice that I did not put any money on Sengoku IV.  My knowledge of Japanese MMA is very limited, so I didn't feel comfortable with any wagering, although I wonder if I'm missing out on some good opportunities there.  Instinctively, I want to think that Japanese MMA lines are more inefficient than UFC lines, but I really don't have anything to base this on other than gut feeling.  I simply think that the mid-tier Japanese fighters aren't as visible over here as the mid-tier UFC fighters are.

Let me know what you guys think!

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

4 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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I like the Liddell and Marquardt picks. Liddell only has to worry about age catching up with him, otherwise it’s a perfect match up for him. Nate never gets enough credit as a fighter, it looks like you got pretty good odds on him.

by Andy R on Aug 27, 2008 11:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I am putting $10 on Evans, I think he can pull the upset.

$5 on Hamill as well.

"My job is a decision-making job, and as a result, I make a lot of decisions." --George W. Bush, The Decider, Lancaster, Pa., Oct. 3, 2007

by lovingmma25 on Aug 27, 2008 1:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the Marquardt pick is a good one … as long as he avoids the temptation to pile drive again. :)

by Kierkegaard on Aug 27, 2008 3:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think

He’ll pull that again. However, I think if Martin is really 100% healthy he can pull it off. Nate has a good groud game but Kammpman is no joke on the mat either. I feel like this will end up being a chess match with Martin keeping it standing and out pointing Nate on the feet with his more technical striking.

"I have opinions of my own --strong opinions-- but I don't always agree with them."
-George Bush

by B Money on Aug 27, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you are pretty much right on for your picks.

Great win by not betting on Sengoku! If you aren’t knowledgeable on some of the fighters, I think you would tend to bet on or against the one’s you are. That probably would have meant losses in this case.

Thanks for keeping up with the updates.

"The bigger the cushion, the sweeter the pushin'"

by BJJDenver on Aug 27, 2008 4:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

BET US

Has Yoshida at +210 right now. I’m gonna wait it out, I think with Karo’s name recognition Yosh will drop to about +230 or more come fight time. And it looks like you got in good on Nate. They’ve got him at -140 and Kammpman at even.

"I have opinions of my own --strong opinions-- but I don't always agree with them."
-George Bush

by B Money on Aug 29, 2008 3:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’d advise everyone to steer clear of BetUS.

by Mike Fagan on Aug 30, 2008 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good to know… care to elaborate?

by Carl P on Aug 31, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I put 10$ on a 3 way parlay with chuck, hendo, and franklin to win 18.50 and 13$ on a 4 way parlay between chuck, hendo, franklin, and karo to win 39.25. My justification for this is: Chuck has it in the bag, Hendo is in a corner with 2 back to back losses, Franklin is just better all around then Hamill, and Karo is actually TRAINING.

I used BetUS.com, so I am also intrested in hearing whats wrong with them?

by virginiatech on Sep 1, 2008 12:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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