Fronted by Chris Nelson

Speculation regarding ProElite's future has definitely increased following the cancellations of their September 20 EliteXC card and a Cage Rage Contenders event in the UK. Couple these with a sudden ballooning of the company's stock price and some interesting news regarding financing in their latest SEC filing, and you have an atmosphere favorable to conjecture. Sam Caplan attempts to cut through the fog in a recent article:

So for now, EliteXC is not in danger of suddenly going out of business. According to their SEC filings, it appears they have enough capital on hand to get them through the year. Will they be able to go out and land major free agents such as Tito Ortiz? Most certainly not. Can they afford Frank Shamrock’s six-figure guarantee and book him for a show? I have my doubts. No matter how you want to spin it, the promotion is underfunded, as it came well short of its goals for executing a raise. The $3 million it did raise several months ago is believed to be nothing more than a loan from corporate partner SHOWTIME. The fact that the company was not able to attract new major outside investors following the strong numbers that its May 31 show did on CBS is a major cause for concern.

The word is that the $3 million which ProElite is currently seeking is once again coming from CBS/Showtime. That should get them through the October 4 event; what happens after that is unclear. Much of the organization's future is dependent upon the success on the next CBS event. Caplan elaborates:

We already know the Oct. 4 show will have a stronger lineup from a marquee name standpoint than 7/26 but will it be enough? May 31 got a great number because all of the planets were aligned perfectly. There wasn’t much competition for the 18-34 demographic and they had months to promote the show to a targeted demographic during events such as the NCAA tournament. But you know the UFC will counter-program the Oct. 4 show again and EliteXC could be going up against both college football and the Major League Baseball playoffs that night. Also, how much promotional resources can CBS devote to “Saturday Night Fights” in August and September when it has to promote its new fall lineup?

There’s also the curiosity element to factor in. A lot of people tuned in on May 31 just to see what all the buzz about MMA was and exactly who this Kimbo Slice guy was. A lot of new fans were created while a lot of people will never tune in again. The first telecast of mixed martial arts in prime-time network television history was a big marketing hook that can never be used again.

If the Oct. 4 show does not hit it out of the park in all facets then CBS will not be the corporate savior some expect them to be. And without their support, I do not see how ProElite can survive. If EliteXC folds, I don’t think that will be good for fighters or the fans (competition brings the best out of everyone) but this is how I see things breaking down. If something doesn’t change and change soon, we could be living in a UFC-only world by next summer. Having four major national promotions compete for the same nut might not be the best thing for the growth of the sport. However, I am not sure having one major national promotion is good for the sport either.

Caplan shares some of my own concerns about EliteXC's ability to replicate the promotion's ratings success in May. There is going to be more competition this time, namely college football. Football season will be in high gear by October, and college football will, no doubt, be airing during the EliteXC event. When you're talking about appealing to casual fans, you have to assume that many of these same people are also football fans. Everyone knows the kind of hold football has on the American sports scene.

We also don't know how big of a factor curiosity played in the May event's ratings.  Those ratings certainly didn't translate into big numbers for the July event. Granted, the July show wasn't executed very well from a marketing standpoint. It would have still been better to have achieved more carryover from May. Then, there is an excellent chance that Dana White and company will continue to play to counter-programming game. The strategy has been successful, thus far. Why stop?

I don't share Caplan's concern about UFC domination, however. I can't predict the future, so I can't very well predict what the MMA landscape will look like if ProElite does go out of business. What I do know is that ProElite's potential demise doesn't necessarily mean the end of competition in the MMA business. ProElite isn't exactly a well oiled machine. A better, more streamlined company may succeed them. A company that starts small and is more concerned with developing young talent would be a more surefire recipe for success, in my estimation, than the ProElite or Affliction models. For the time being, ProElite isn't dead, but their survival is directly related to what happens on October 4, 2008.