Over the past few days, a new rash of Fedor/Randy news has started the blogosphere talking, starting with the couple's canoodling in LA, followed by Vadim's statements to Sherdog reiterating their willingness to work with the UFC.  That was followed by Randy's statements on Adam Carolla's show, saying he believed his paycheck for that fight should be $6-10 million.

Pramit Mohapatra over at FightTicker did a fine job of debunking Randy's claims as to reasonable pay:

At $50 a pop, 700,000 PPV buys gives us $35 million in PPV revenue. Give the PPV broadcaster half and the promotion ends up with $17.5 million.

Now, UFC 87 (with an announced attendance in the neighborhood of 15,000) made a reported live gate of $2.2 million. Let's be generous and say that Randy-Fedor garners a live gate of $3 million.

. . .

(Without all costs) factored in, Couture's estimate of a $12-20 million total payout for both him and Fedor seems very unrealistic.

However, that still leaves open a couple of questions: what would be reasonable pay and terms for that fight to take place in the UFC?  And will those terms prevent the fight from ever happening?

Working with Pramit's numbers, an expected revenue of $17.5 million for the promotion would have to be divided up by fighter revenue, promotion revenue, and the costs for putting together and promoting the event, as well as the substantial interest costs on Zuffa's debt.  If those costs are estimated at approximately 7-10 million (as this fight would clearly require a great deal more advertising than most UFC fights, as Fedor is basically an unknown to the majority of UFC fans,) that leaves maybe 9-10 million to split between Fedor, Randy, and the promotion.  With a 50/50 split, that leaves about 5 million for the fighters, with Randy and Fedor each getting a little over 2 million and the rest of the fighters getting about 700k.

However, this breakdown ignores the non-monetary issues, almost all of which currently run against Randy/Fedor.  First is the fact that the UFC holds most of the leverage right now.  The UFC does not need Randy/Fedor, while Randy needs this fight soon if he ever wants to have it.

Second is the fact that the value of this fight declines by the day.  The longer Randy is out of the public eye and the longer other upstart promotions lose money without breaking through, the less likely Randy will be able to get a big payday out of this fight when he finally gets out from under the UFC's thumb.  This was the biggest fight of all time a year ago.  Right now, its still a big fight, but many people have lost interest in favor of Fedor/Barnett or Fedor/Arlovski.  A year and a half from now, the fight may not have that value of being a breakout fight for another promotion, and Randy will never fight again.  With the UFC appearing fully capable of drawing out the legal issues until kingdom come, that deadline has to loom in Randy's mind.

Third, Randy's continued abrasiveness in regards to the UFC and his open rejection of their contract and policies makes him less valuable to the organization.  The UFC does not want to hype up a fight with a guy who may fight, then promptly turn around and resume devaluing the UFC with his words and actions.  He can't be expected to continue bringing in money for the UFC with following fights, since he's already shown his willingness to abandon the company and his contract.  In fact, if he does win, does he hold out for a superfight with Arlovski?  The UFC may end up trading one superfight headache for another.  And what signal does that send to other UFC fighters, that Randy took on the beast and won?  The UFC needs to send the message that Randy would have been better off simply fulfilling his original contract, which would require Randy to fight Fedor under terms he almost certainly wouldn't accept.  Randy tied up in legal limbo may be the best option right now, from the UFC's perspective.

Fourth is Fedor and his management's unwillingness to sign a long-term contract that isn't riddled with co-promoting nonsense.  Even if the UFC can wheedle him into signing a four-fight deal (doubtful) he could easily bolt afterward and cause the UFC more headaches, as he would possibly leave as the UFC HW champion and a superstar in the US.  They may not want to take the risk.  If need be, the UFC can wait him out for another top HW fighter to reach the top, a fighter who may be more willing to tie his name to the UFC for the rest of his career.

The primary reason to hold the fight in the UFC is the risk of it being held in another promotion and vaulting them to national profitability.  But as mentioned earlier, the fight loses value almost on a daily basis.  A year from now, there may be no upstart promotion willing to take the certain loss on that fight.  Strikeforce doesn't need it, and EliteXC and Affliction may have already either shut their doors, or reached profitability on their own.  If Fedor/Randy declines to simply a standard "big fight" it will never happen under the terms Randy wants.  And with the UFC keeping Randy in court, they can afford to wait to see if they can keep him busy long enough for the fight to lose its lustre.

In sum, Randy/Fedor is too dangerous for the UFC to hold under anywhere near the terms Randy's pride and Fedor's pride demand, and by the time it could be held anywhere else, it won't matter anymore.  Randy will move on in his movie career, and Fedor will continue to be a star in Japan and Russia, and we will have all missed out on a fight we should have already seen.

(My first fanpost, hope you like!)