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FightLines: Welterweights

Ww_medium
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Serra = St. PIerre
Fickett > Koscheck > Sanchez > Parisyan > Fickett

If you go back to the middleweight graph and compare it to this one, you'll find a pretty stark contrast.  The middleweights have 11 separate fighters atop of paths, while the welterweights have a paltry 6.  On the flip side, the middleweights have 9 cellar dwellars compared to the welterweights 13.

This tell us the welterweights have a much more defined hierarchy.  There's almost a pyramid like quality to the graph compared to Anderson Silva and his wall of contenders at 185. 

If you further extrapolate, you find the graph really only contains two legitimate path heads - Georges St. Pierre and Jon Fitch.  So, it's quite convenient that they square off at UFC 87.  The ramifications need little explanation, a win for either fighter essentially amounts to a Risk-like global domination.

More notes after the break

Star-divide

-I decided to keep guys who made the meta-rankings but didn't have any qualifying fights.  That's why you see the floating blue-green Sakurai and Gono nodes.

-Carlos Condit, top 10 fighter?  FightLines certainly doesn't agree with that notion.  If we accept the fact that St. Pierre, Fitch, Koscheck, Alves, Sanchez, Parisyan, Shields, and Hughes all populate 1-8 in some permutation, that leaves 2 spots for guys like Condit, Serra, Thompson, and others.  Serra probably belongs because of his win over St. Pierre, no matter how flukey it was.  I'd further argue that Nick Thompson, who has a gaudy 20-1 record over 3 years with his lone loss to Karo Parisyan, deserves a spot in the top 10 over Condit.

Being a heavily UFC-centric division, it will be hard for Condit to make up ground in the WEC.

-Majority Leaders:

Rank Name       PCT Above/Below
1 Jon Fitch 65% 25/0
2 Thiago Alves 58% 21/1
3 Georges St. Pierre 55% 21/0
4 Carlos Condit 53% 5/15
5 John Alessio 47% 0/18

-Interesting FightLines Match-ups:

The obvious has already been discussed.  St. Pierre/Fitch is a fight that makes sense for numerous reasons, the least of which is the FightLines system.

The recently rumored Sanchez/Alves fight allows Sanchez the chance to reclaim his path to Parisyan, which is looped out because of his loss to Koscheck.

Carlos Condit might find redemption in a match with Jay Hieron.  With the IFL on the ropes and Condit needing challengers, he seems like a good fit.  A win of Hieron would loop out his loss to Healy.

Looking at the graph, I thought Karo should fight someone like Dustin Hazelett or Yoshiyuki Yoshida.  I remembered that there were rumors of Parisyan being rumored to fight someone, and lo and behold he's close to signing an agreement for the Yoshida fight.  I think this is very solid matchmaking.

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good shit!

Love this stuff Mike, thanks!

by Kid Nate on Jul 6, 2008 8:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Condit’s in a strange predicament.

by Luke Thomas on Jul 6, 2008 8:35 PM EDT reply actions  

he's actually in a pretty sweet spot

It seems unlikely he could beat Koschek, Fitch, Sanchez, Alves or the other top tier UFC guys. IMO he would have a tough time with Lytle, Marcus Davis, Nick Thompson, or Hieron. If I was Chris Lytle or Marcus Davis, I’d be moving down to WEC to take a shot at having a belt of my own.

by Kid Nate on Jul 6, 2008 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see that

I think Condit’s incredibly underrated. He would smash Lytle or Davis. I just don’t think he’s had his opportunity yet. He gave Jake Shields all he could handle years ago and has improved tremendously since then.

by Luke Thomas on Jul 6, 2008 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

the guy's a consensus top 10 fighter

who hasn’t beaten top tier competition. He’s not under-rated, he’s over-rated, if anything. He’s clearly a very talented athlete, but no way is he in the top 5 welterweights in the world.

by Kid Nate on Jul 6, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I tend to agree with Nate here. Condit certainly has the potential to be a top fighter, but his results don’t really prove it to me.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 6, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.

Kelvin Hunt

I'm like those boyz on the sidelines...cause I ain't playing...

by Tha Realness on Jul 7, 2008 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fighting Hiromitsu Miura certainly does him no favors.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 6, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

imo

to make the most out of being a very talented young fighter the sooner Condit can start taking his knocks from really upper echelon 170lb athletes the better.

by lunedi18 on Jul 6, 2008 9:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Mike...

At first I had no clue how the hell this thing worked. Then I realized that I was being hypnotized by all the lines. It’s easy to understand and totally interesting.

Awesome work man…

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

"The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls and looking like hard work." -- Thomas Edison

by Brent Brookhouse on Jul 6, 2008 11:35 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m really glad the idea is picking up some interest. I feel like it’s like a Magic Eye picture. At first it looks like nothing, but once it clicks, it seems so simple.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 7, 2008 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

LOL @ “feel like it’s like…”

My grammar blows.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 7, 2008 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

question

Why isn’t there a line from Koscheck to Sanchez? He did beat him.

by Luke Thomas on Jul 7, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Fickett > Koscheck > Sanchez > Parisyan > Fickett

by Richard Wade on Jul 7, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I get that

But why is there no line on the graph?

by Luke Thomas on Jul 7, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

The line gets removed because of the loop. That’s why there’s no line from Diego to Karo either.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 7, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

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