I'm writing this a little on short notice, so I'm only going to focus on 3 of the fights on tomorrow's card.  From here on out, I should be providing gambling articles for all the UFC cards and select international events.

Odds listed are the best available from the 3 most reliable books servicing U.S. customers (Bodog, Bookmaker, and 5dimes) according to BestFightOdds.com.

QUINTON "RAMPAGE" JACKSON (-265) vs. FORREST GRIFFIN (+225)

I first saw this line at Bookmaker around the time the Ultimate Fighter debuted at -275 and I hopped on for a few units.  Bodog opened up shortly afterwards at -260, and I added another unit.  Suffice it to say, I like Jackson at the current line.

As mentioned during the Bloody Elbow staff picks, Jackson poses a bad matchup stylistaclly for Griffin.  Forrest's strengths lie in his size, conditioning, and an overlooked ground game.  He lacks power and wrestling, however, which limits his ability to threaten with his best attributes.

Quinton Jackson, on the other hand, comes into this fight with a very good standup game both in terms of both power and technique.  His wrestling is solid but not world class, but he makes up for that with incredible strength and explosion.  While shorter than Griffin, he won't be lacking much size.  There has also been talk about his cardio in the UFC hype videos, though I believe the Dan Henderson fight shows that he can go all 5 rounds without slowing down.

Between -260 and -275 we're looking for Jackson to win 72-73% of the time.  The true line is more near 80%, probably somewhere around 77-78%.  The longer a fight goes, the more it favors the guy who can finish and in this case, Quinton holds a large advantage in that department.  I expect Rampage by KO in round 2.

I don't have data to back this up, but I suspect the line has been stable as a result of public money coming in on Forrest.  I would try to hit the line now before more smart money comes in closer to fight time.

MARCUS "MAXIMUS" AURELIO (+260) vs. TYSON GRIFFIN (-290)

Marcus Aurelio (16-5) is a 34 year old American Top Team fighter hailing from Fortaleza, Brazil.  Aurelio gained recognition when he defeated Takanori Gomi by arm triangle at Pride's Bushido 10.

Tyson Griffin (11-1) is a 24 year old Xtreme Couture fighter hailing from Sacramento, California.  Griffin jumped into the spotlight in 2007 with back-to-back fight of the year candidates against Frank Edgar and Clay Guida.

After studying video, I'm very impressed by Tyson Griffin.  I remember having some doubts after his last win over Gleison Tibau, but after rewatching that fight, I fail to see how anyone questioned the decision.  Tyson brings a very well-rounded MMA game to the table.  His striking appears crisp and helps set up his takedown attempts.  I do hold some concerns over how easily Tibau took him down, but to his credit, he scrambled well and escaped much damage on the ground.

Marcus Aurelio's best chance in this fight revolves around his ability to get the fight to the ground and get on top.  At best, he can keep the fight competitive standing with his height and reach advantage.  To take down Griffin, however, he'll have to submit him or ride out two rounds for a decision.

Tyson Griffin is the favorite in this fight for a reason.  However, with Griffin not having finished someone in his last four fights and Aurelio having never been stopped, we have some small value in Aurelio's ground game and size advantage.  Needing only 28%, I'd recommend a small play here.

JOE "DADDY" STEVENSON (-210) vs. GLEISON TIBAU (+200)

Joe Stevenson (28-8) is a 26 year old fighter out of Victorville, California.  After winning the second season of the Ultimate Fighter, he bounced back from a loss to Josh Neer to win four straight to earn himself a title shot against B.J. Penn.  In a largely one-sided affair, Joe lost to Penn by rear naked choke in round 2.

Gleison Tibau (15-5) is a 24 year old American Top Team fighter.  He holds Octagon victories over Jeffrey Cox and Terry Etim, while losing his last fight by decision to Tyson Griffin.

Stevenson should come out aggressive as usual in this fight.  He should try and keep the fight standing and avoid getting in the clinch with the bigger Tibau.  Stevenson makes good use of head movement which will allow him to avoid strikes from Tibau while penetrating the Brazilians poor standup defense.

Tibau's best asset in this fight is his size.  A former welterweight, he will come in both taller and bigger than his opponent.  If he can use that size and bully and grind Stevenson around the cage, he may be able to win a decision.  Tibau wasn't able to control Tyson Griffin on the ground, and I expect Stevenson, who is bigger than Griffin and has a very active guard game, to be able to scramble back up to his feet.

Needing just under 68%, I'd make a small play on Joe Stevenson.

My Plays:

Quinton Jackson -275 2.5u to win .91u
Quinton Jackson -260 1u to win .385u
Ricardo Almeida +105 .9525u to win 1u
Marcus Aurelio +260 .48u to win 1.25u
Joe Stevenson -210 1.05u to win .5u

Since UFC 82, I am 21-14 and +8.71u.