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BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions for "UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin"

For now, I've written just basic analysis. For the full breakdown, check out "MMA Nation" this Saturday on 106.7 WJFK from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m.

MAIN CARD:

Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin

Luke Thomas: The most important part of this fight will take place on the feet, whether that be in close or at range. Either way, Rampage has enough defensive skills, power, toughness and technical acumen (particularly from the outside) to make this a bad match-up for Forrest. Rampage by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Rampage should be able to take Forrest down and administer a beating ala Tito in the first round of Ortiz/Griffin but Rampage won't fade after the first. Jackson by TKO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: As much as I'd love to pick Forrest I just can't see any aspect of the fight game where he is better.  I don't think a Griffin decision win is completely out of the question.  But I've got to follow my brain here.  Jackson by 4th round TKO.

Mike Rome: I think this is Quinton's fight all day long.  Better boxing, better wrestling, better in the clinch, and he is just on another level from Forrest.  I do not believe Quinton will gas, he was in great conditioning after 5 brutal rounds with Henderson, and Forrest has never gone long with a guy like Quinton.  The idea that Forrest Griffin will submit Quinton Jackson is just ludicrous to me, his submission defense is just too good, and he's not going to gas like Shogun.  Al that being said, I do not expect Forrest to go down without a fight, and I expect this to be quite an entertaining fight.  Quinton Jackson via KO, round 3.

Nick Thomas: Hate betting against Forrest considering the win he pulled off against Shogun. But Jackson is bigger, badder and blacker. Jackson by TKO.


Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida

Luke Thomas: Terribly difficult fight to forecast largely because it’s unknown whether Cote via his alleged technical improvement has enough to stop Almeida from forcing a fight to the floor and landing the submission. Like Nate, the Lutter fight just keeps running through my mind. Almeida, by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: I realize Cote can win by KO but his loss to Lutter keeps flashing through my head. Almeida by sub in one.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm not sure how "back" Almeida really is.  Cote is rolling since '07 and I think the roll continues with a tough decision win.

Mike Rome: I'm going to buck the trend and pick Cote here.  I just think we're all overrating Almeida following his last fight, and I don't have any reason yet to believe he can hang with this generation's mixed martial artists.  I think Cote will stuff a few takedowns and finish him standing.  Cote via KO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Cote is the underdog betting wise which is surprising considering he has 72% of the votes on UFC.com. So I'm going with the upset. Upset #1 - my fellow Canuck, Cote by stuffing the takedown and getting the TKO.


Joe Stevenson vs Gleison Tibau

Luke Thomas: Everyone is taking the massive Tibau lightly. Tibau by decision.

Kid Nate: People are sleeping on Gleison, the guy's huge for 155 and he gave Tyson Griffin a very tough time. Stevenson will have to dominate three rounds because he won't get the submission against Tibau. I think it could go a lot like Stevenson's loss to Neer. Tibau by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Stevenson is going to be motivated and mean.  I don't want to sound like I'm underselling Tibau right now.  But I see a vicious win for Stevenson.  Stevenson by TKO round 1.

Mike Rome: This is Stevenson's come back match and a fight that I believe will go into the later rounds. Tibau will be able to get the takedowns but that's where it's going to end. Stevenson by submission.

Nick Thomas: Stevenson via submission, round 2.

 

Josh Koscheck vs Chris Lytle

Luke Thomas: I wouldn’t be shocked to see Lytle put hands on Koscheck or sub him after landing a devastating strike. But I don’t think it’s probable. Koscheck by decision.

Kid Nate: Lytle mania is getting a tiny bit out of hand when people are picking him to KO Koscheck. I just don't see it. Koscheck will ride out a decision.

Brent Brookhouse: As much as I really, really want Lytle to win this I think that Koscheck's explosiveness is going to be the difference here.  As long as he isn't a dope who decides to "prove his striking" and sticks to takedowns and GnP we'll see Koscheck by decision.

Mike Rome: I am picking Lytle here.  He has looked great of late, and if Josh decides to keep trying to be exciting, he will provide plenty of it in the form of getting himself knocked out.  If he's smart he can ride a decision, but I don't think he's that kind of fighter anymore.  Either way, I expect this to be good.  Lytle via KO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Lytle has never been submitted or knocked out. So Koscheck is going to have to ride out the decision here. And that's just what he'll do. Koscheck by decision.


Tyson Griffin vs Marcus Aurelio

Luke Thomas: I don’t understand the love affair with Aurelio here. He doesn’t do well against wrestlers with good submission defense, which is precisely what Griffin is. Griffin, by decision.

Kid Nate: I don't expect a fun fight here. I still remember Aurelio's snoozefest against Guida. The guy is good but he's outmanned here, without KO power, Aurelio will be forced to fight for the takedowns and he won't get them. Griffin by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: I like Marcus here in the fight of the night.  Griffin will get some takedowns but there will be a point where there is a scramble on the ground and he gets caught in a sub.  Aurelio by submission, round 2.

Mike Rome:  Very interesting fight here.  I think Griffin's wrestling and submission defense will be too much, but it's hard to count out Aurelio, especially after his last armbar win.  I have picked him due to the ridiculous odds, but I think Tyson wins via (gasp) decision.

Nick Thomas: Great fight here. Both tough cats. But I'm going with Griffin with better wrestling and picking apart Aurelio on the feet. Griffin by decision.

Star-divide

UNDERCARD:

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Justin McCully 

Luke Thomas: I doubt McCully will get steamrolled, but I don’t think there is anyway he can win. Gonzaga, TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Gonzaga by KO.

Brent Brookhouse: If this goes past the first round I wouldn't be shocked to see McCully win a decision.  He has to have a gameplan that involves pressure, pressure, pressure which has always been the one thing that Gonzaga looks bad against (well..that and the cardio monster).  That being said, I don't think it is going to go past the first round.  Gonzaga by round 1 TKO.

Nick Thomas: Gonzaga by head kick and BJJ.

 

Jorge Gurgel vs. Cole Miller 

Luke Thomas: Gurgel will be surprisingly game before succumbing to bad habits. Miller by TKO in the 3rd.

Kid Nate: Gurgel says he's got a gameplan for the first time in his career. I don't think that will make up for the reach he's giving up here. Miller by KO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Gurgel has already pretty much said he plans to keep it standing.  Miller will pick him apart and win a somewhat lackluster decision.  Cole Miller by decision.

Nick Thomas: Gurgel if you're reading this, please take it to the ground. Gurgel by submission.

Ben Saunders vs. Jared Rollins

Luke Thomas: Saunders by being technically better all the way around with a longer reach and better camp.

 

Melvin Guillard vs. Dennis Siver

Luke Thomas: Ordinarily I’d pick Siver, but I’m not getting a good vibe on him. Guillard by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Melvin should be able to muscle past Siver. Guillard by TKO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: I think this is the kind of fight where Guillard being an explosive mofo is going to help him.  Siver does have those pesky submissions that Melvin seems to have never heard of.  Still I think we're looking at a very short fight where Guillard hurts and finishes Siver.  Melvin by quick KO in the first.

Nick Thomas:  Not fan of Guillard so I have to go with the upset here. Upset #2 - Silver by decision.

 

Corey Hill vs. Justin Buchholz 

Luke Thomas: Buccholz is completely outmatched here. Hill by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Buchholz is being fed to Corey Hill here. Hill by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm picking Hill here but a Buchholz win wouldn't be a shocker considering the experience difference.  I think Hill's natural physical gifts plus his being a "real fighter" now will get him the W.  Corey Hill by TKO in the second.

Nick Thomas: Hill is a freak of nature. Hill by height and reach advantage.

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Good Picks. Im going with my heart on the Lytle/Koscheck fight. LYtle KO rnd. 2!

by asmiley420 on Jul 4, 2008 4:06 PM EDT   0 recs

If Florian can beat Huerta, can u say Penn Vs. Florian in Boston?

by asmiley420 on Jul 4, 2008 4:07 PM EDT   0 recs

You can’t, or don’t want to?

by mythbuster on Jul 4, 2008 6:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dana’s been saying “the UFC will be in Boston before the end of the year” for the last 3-4 years. The legislation is still a long way off.

by ChrisNelson on Jul 4, 2008 8:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

oh...

The Boston part. I thought he was saying no to Penn vs Florian. =)

by mythbuster on Jul 4, 2008 10:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

For some reason, I still think Forrest will win. I still think he can outpoint Rampage or catch him with a submission.

by pud333 on Jul 4, 2008 4:20 PM EDT   0 recs

Nick wtf man. Bigger, better, blacker? You some kinda wigger or what.

by MrNiceGuyMMA on Jul 4, 2008 10:52 PM EDT   0 recs

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