How Forrest Can Beat Rampage -- It Ain't the Thai Plum

Earlier this week I contributed a little to a Zach Arnold piece on how Forrest could beat Rampage. I'm not saying he will, I'm just saying where I think his best chances are:

There are two paths Griffin could choose to go down.

1) The Wanderlei Silva route — Get inside, fire punches to the body and then lock in the thai plum. Griffin is taller than Rampage and could do some damage if he can connect with knees to the head.

2) The Josh Thomson route — Keep the standup on the outside and use leg kicks and body kicks to keep Rampage out of punching range. Fire knees to the face when Rampage shoots in. I don’t think Griffin has the wrestling skills to pull off #2 and since he’s been training with Wanderlei Silva, I think he’ll go for #1. Can he beat Rampage like that? Seems unlikely, but so did beating Shogun on the ground.

This FightMetric piece on AOL Sports convinced me more than ever that trying to beat Rampage in the clinch is the wrong road for Forrest Griffin to try to go down:

Many people have watched Rampage fall prey to the Muay Thai clinch of Wanderlei Silva and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and figured that the clinch is where Rampage's game is weakest. That would be a big mistake.

Statistically, the clinch is actually the strongest part of Rampage's game.

Over the course of those 21 fights, Rampage landed 372 HiPer Strikes (meaning, the most significant kind of strikes). A total of 222 of those strikes were landed in the clinch, which comes out to 60%. That means that Rampage has landed more strikes in the clinch than toe-to-toe and on the ground combined.

It's not just volume either. His accuracy on those strikes is an astounding 82%, on 222 of 270 strikes. Rampage picks his shots well in the clinch and uses an underrated Greco clinch for maximum control.

Of course, it also helps that his opponents are distracted by the prospect of a takedown. While known as an excellent freestyle wrestler, nearly all of Rampage's takedowns come from the clinch (31 of 33 successful takedowns). And much like his striking, his takedown success rate is well above-average. Rampage landed 31 of the 46 clinch takedowns he's attempted for a success rate of 67%, compared to the average fighter who lands about 45% of his attempts.

Forrest's best chance is to turn the fight into a bull vs the matador match like Thomson/Melendez. Outscore Rampage on the feet and keep Quinton out of close range by using body kicks to keep him away. Pretty slim thread to cling to, but I think it's Forrest's only hope.