The Case for Georges St. Pierre
by Luke Thomas on Jul 30, 2008 11:59 AM EDT
in MMA News
Email
PrintThe tale of Fitch's record is that he always finds a way to win but he has fallen short in being able to finish fights against tough opponents. He has pulled out big TKO's like the one against Thiago Alves and a few nice submissions, but in general he just wins.
Match up wise Fitch and St Pierre are very similar in their styles as well as how they shift weapons to fit their opponent. When each element is lined up GSP comes out ahead just a bit...speed, power, takedowns, striking, submissions, and even aggression. It doesn't mean that GSP wins every time but he has the edge in all aspects of this fight...except height I suppose. In the end GSP should win this fight about 65-70% of the time which translates to odds of -190 to -240 being close to true.
The current betting line for GSP is sitting at -265 (SportsBook) which is decent considering his popularity. Jon Fitch's betting line is sitting at +260 (BookMaker) which means the books are giving him about a 28% chance. The lines look pretty reasonable and the return at these odds are the best you will get. If you want to put money on GSP do it now his line will likey be -300 to -375 at all of the books as the fight gets closer.
In evaluating this match-up, I keep returning to the clear fact that everything Fitch is adept at, St. Pierre is just slightly better. Even in pure athleticism - which isn't a technical skill - St. Pierre is slightly ahead. We aren't talking about massive divergence or separation, but GSP notches ahead in my book in every noteworthy area. I suppose one could make the case that Fitch's submission defense is slightly better, but I have my doubts about how much that will come into play during this fight.
So what can we expect? A very close but ultimately clear decision for St. Pierre. Unlike Penn, I don't see Fitch being able to bully St. Pierre very much. While Fitch will likely use his ground acumen to keep St. Pierre in a defensive mode as much as possible, I doubt he'll be able to dictate where the fight takes place. To me, the biggest separation in their skill is in the stand-up. Fitch will need to constantly pressure GSP to prevent him from setting his feet, to keep him backing up and having to resort to ineffective, poorly timed strikes. But I have serious doubts about whether Fitch can actually do this effectively.
UPDATE: So maybe I have a poverty of imagination. Let's just play a game here: if Fitch does win, how does he do it? Give me your thoughts in the comments section.
28 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I don’t think this fight is going to be THAT close….everyone mentions that Fitch is a grinder..etc etc…which he is…but he will be put on his back…multiple times..and if he tries to stand with GSP he will get peppered…
His only hope is that GSP throws alot of kicks and he someone catches them and gets GSP down and lays on him…even then I’m not sure he can take/keep GSP down on his back.
http://tharealness.wordpress.com/
I think this fight for Fitch all comes down to his Wrestling and if he can get GSP on his back and keep him there for 3 rounds and grind out a decision. But alot of people said that same thing in the KOS fight and look what happend GSP dominated that fight with wrestling and it was against a world class Wrestler in KOS.Other then Fitch doing that I just don’t see how he can win this fight. In any MMA match there is always that chance of the lucky punch like We all Saw in the first Serra fight but Fitch does not have the best KO powder so the odds of that happening are slim to none in my opinion. I will be rooting for Fitch but I just don’t see it happening , I hope I am wrong ????
I’m sure Royce Gracie is happy Fitch won’t dethrone his ‘Most consecutive wins in UFC bouts’.
Anderson Silva should do it in two more fights though.
If Fitch wins....
I think he’d win by decision. He’d do what Frankie Edgard did to Hermes Franca. He doesn’t come off as a finisher – granted he has finished fights – just not as often let’s say.
I like Fitch, but he has some fans that will always pull for “the other guy”. GSP is a well rounded, dominant fighter and there will always be people pumping up the opponent just for that reason. Of course, one thing we have learned in mma, is anything can happen.
Barring a Serra type punch stunning GSP, I don’t see fitch winning this one.
"The bigger the cushion, the sweeter the pushin'"
that line for GSP is going to go way up.
by monkeyfightclub! on Jul 30, 2008 2:21 PM EDT reply actions
fitch
there´s one thing fitch beats GSP in…
that´s durability-chin.
So getting tko’d once in 18 fights means you have a weak chin? Especially when the bulk of your career is at the top?
Fitch has also been tko’d once and hasn’t faced the same level of comp. Why don’t you call his chin weak?
I’ve watched that fight around 10 times (after I paid out a 7-1 bet against my friend with a freaking check).
Serra lands a really strong shot clean on the button and keeps coming. St. Pierre never really regained his composure but he took another 10 solid shots and didn’t get knocked out. I think his chin is pretty solid considering that Serra packs a lot of firepower in those short arms.
I suppose one could make the case that Fitch’s submission defense is slightly better
There are two kinds of submission defense: the ability to avoid being submitted and the ability to avoid submission attempts in the first place. Fitch is very good at the former and very bad at the latter. He gets caught in an inordinate number of submissions for a fighter of his caliber, but he’s always been able to escape them. I have to believe that eventually one of those subs is going to stick. I don’t think it will be GSP that does it, but leaving your head in all the time on shots and in top position is playing with fire.
I don't think those are two "different" kinds"
One is just further along than the other. It’s an issue of degree. Fitch’s talent isn’t to avoid compromising situations, it’s wiggling free. Someone who has strong positioning fundamentals has good submission defense to an extent, but what is traditionally understood as strong submission defense is having a little of both but with escapism as an important point.
I hear you. This may be more semantics than anything. I guess from my perspective, the best submission defense is something like what Fedor demonstrated against Nogueira. Everytime Nogueira even tried to swing his hips for a submission, Fedor pulled out or tossed him aside with ease. The best defense is not to get caught at all. Fitch’s talent - wriggling out once you’ve been caught - is vital, but it’s a dangerous game to play. Even putting aside the possibility of actually getting submitted, just letting your opponent latch on a serious attempt goes a long way in convincing judges that your opponent is doing more than he is. I still can’t believe one judge gave Diego the decision, but it had to be because of the subs that Diego latched on, even if Fitch got out of them.
I thought it was because Diego got him into several submission attempts. The only reason Diego lost that fight is because Jon threw 4 more punches in the fight than Diego. All jokes aside that fight was a very technical fight. Most technical fights are boring but that one wasn’t too bad. Not as painful to watch as Diego’s fight with Josh Koscheck.
I’d call them different kinds, but that’s JMO. A guy like GSP is constantly looking to pass and GNP, and has such good control that he sees the sub attempt coming way ahead of time and avoids it. Guys like that aren’t going to spend time in a round getting out of a sticky situation like Fitch does, which means they’re spending more time accumulating points by continuing to work their game, and aren’t giving away points by letting the other guy get a near submission attempt.
I still think GSP doesn’t like getting knocked around on the inside at all. He likes to keep his distance while striking and I think Fitch can get inside and pressure him and throw him off his game. We’ve all seen St. Pierre when he’s flustered and he’s certainly beatable then.
I also don’t think GSP is going to have as easy a time getting Fitch down as he did with Koscheck. Fitch knows just how good GSP’s wrestling is now so he won’t be taken off guard by it the way Kos was. I still think GSP is the favorite in this fight, but I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion by any means.
Problem is, GSP is so quick and elusive with great footwork, that it’s nearly impossible to get on the inside unless GSP wants to clinch with you. And for a tall guy, I don’t know if Fitch wants to be inside.
As for the wrestling aspect, Fitch had worlds of trouble in the wrestling department against Carneiro, Wilson, and Diego. He’ll be able to get back to his feet, but won’t be able to stop many of GSP’s takedowns, whether or not he knows they are coming. And Fitch isn’t on Kos’s level when it comes to competitve wrestling and wrestling credentials.
The only ways I see Fitch winning
Is by decision or guillotine in the first when GSP tries for a take down.
GSP obviously doesn’t have the best standup in the world, but it’s very good (at worst). When has Jon Fitch shown really capable standup? I just think the idea that Fitch is going to beat up GSP standing is insane. He could always catch him, but St. Pierre’s chin is excellent. He got rocked in the back of the head by Serra, but have we ever seen him in any real trouble standing otherwise? He lost the standing round to BJ Penn, but it’s not like Penn was ever close to finishing it standing.
Also, I think the “GSP is afraid to stand” thing is the brand new version of “Where is GSP’s head at?” I hope he wins this standing so I don’t have to hear it next fight.
by Michael Rome on Jul 30, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
MMA Rankings
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
