FightLines: Heavyweights - July

by Mike Fagan on Jul 28, 2008 9:45 PM EDT in News Comment 37 comments

Loops:

Nogueira=Barnett
Overeem=Kharitonov
Filipovic > Barnett > Hunt > Filipovic
Werdum > A Emelianenko > Kharitonov > Werdum

A lot has changed since the initial heavyweight graph last month. The Meta-Rankings have expanded to include the top 25 fighters in a given weight class increasing the kernel to branch off from. I've introduced a new color scheme to make the graph more readable. The Majority Leaders stat has started to be published.

The results, however, largely remain the same. Fedor Emelianenko, "Minotauro" Nogueira, and Randy Couture remain firmly entrenched at the top. Underneath them, Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski, and Fabricio Werdum are well established in the pecking order. Like I mentioned in the FAQ, a vertical graph suggests a defined hierachy. What we have here is a skyscraper.

In the future, I'll discuss fighters who have been added or dropped from the criteria, loops gained or broken, and the like, but considering the qualifying differences between the first two heavyweight attempts, I'll lay off that for now.

Notes after the break

-I will say that guys like Mirko Filipovic and Josh Barnett look a little better with the increased data points.

-On the topic of shapes, this graph almost looks like a very bottom heavy sand timer. The big 3 at the top funnel into Sylvia/Arlovski, which then branches back out.

-Was Brandon Vera overhyped at 265? Look at his competition.

-With Affliction heading towards Emelianenko/Arlovski, I'm tempted to say I want to see Sylvia/Barnett. The worry, of course, is that a Barnett loss would really mess up his claim to a title shot.

-Cain Velasquez is in an interesting spot. The impressive win over O'Brien would indicate he should be getting similar or slightly better competition coming up. However, I'm not sure who that competition is. Gabriel Gonzaga would be an interesting fight, but is that someone Cain, who only has 4 pro fights, should be fighting at this point of his career?

Majority Leaders

Andrei Arlovski 93.3% (38/4)
Tim Sylvia 93.3% (39/3)
Fedor Emelianenko 91.1% (41/0)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 91.1% (41/0)
Randy Couture 88.9% (40/0)

4 recs | Comment 37 comments

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Comments

This rules. End of story.

by Luke Thomas on Jul 28, 2008 10:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What Luke said. Nice one.

by Chris Nelson on Jul 28, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Couture???

What freaking basis does Couture have at being at the top? I mean seriously guys. His title defenses? His dominate record? If Fedor was dropping from the top for not fighting big enough opponents, how does Couture keep his status without fighting at all? How many of the top five HW’s has he beat again?

by Tommy7 on Jul 28, 2008 10:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree. Couture is overrated

by Yasnian on Jul 28, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps you should read the methodology.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard Wade on Jul 28, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

These same people post the same shit every time. They’re just looking at the pictures, like when you submit a document to your boss and all he wants to talk about are the colors on the diagram. They’re probably CEOs or something.

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jul 29, 2008 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And to keep Silvia, who dropped 3 out of his last four fights, ahead of Arlovski who’s won all of his last four, seems a little unfair as well. But whatever.

by Tommy7 on Jul 28, 2008 10:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you understand how this works

Fightlines isn’t a subjective opinion which could be adjusted based on your logical points, instead its a system that sets up rules to place fighters in order. Couture beat Sylvia and Gonzaga and hasn’t lost to anyone on this chart in the time period covered, therefore he’s at the top.

I do have a question for Mike though, why did you not draw the line between Couture and Gonzaga?

by Kid Nate on Jul 28, 2008 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There’s a path to Gabriel:

Couture > Sylvia > Arlovski > Werdum > Gonzaga

by Mike Fagan on Jul 28, 2008 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn’t that set up the proverbial, if fighter A beat fighter B and fighter B beat fighter C, then surely fighter A can beat fighter C? Maybe I don’t understand.

by Tommy7 on Jul 28, 2008 10:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There’s no real predictive value here. It’s a useful tool for traditional top 10 rankings which I believe, to borrow a Breen-ism, should be “snapshots in time.”

by Mike Fagan on Jul 28, 2008 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as the loops illustrate

sometimes “if fighter A beat fighter B and fighter B beat fighter C” sometimes fighter A actually does beat fighter C in a real fight.
Fightlines is just a way to convey a lot of information about fights that have actually happened in a visual form it doesn’t claim to be the be all and end all

by Kid Nate on Jul 28, 2008 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And

Just like FightMetric, FightLines is not a be-all, end-all, but more a useful tool that helps illustrate the situation.

by Luke Thomas on Jul 28, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Should note that clicking the graph gives you a bigger/better quality image.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 28, 2008 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

double check that link

i’m not able to open the larger image.

by Kid Nate on Jul 28, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, should be fixed.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 28, 2008 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m still not having any luck with it.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard Wade on Jul 28, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you refresh the page?

by Mike Fagan on Jul 28, 2008 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I had and it still wasn’t working, but it is now. Good stuff, btw.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard Wade on Jul 29, 2008 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it was throwing up and error page

keep trying guys, it will work.

by Ronnie Liddle on Jul 28, 2008 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And many times they don’t. It’s cool though. I’m sure Couture will stay there at least another year or so. It’s the longest run he’s ever had at the top. I say he’s a dick to avoid Big Nog and not allow him the honor of being the true HW champ. Even in boxing if you don’t actually beat the champ, your considered a paper one. Couture is able to fight, he just won’t.

by Tommy7 on Jul 28, 2008 11:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I read the FAQ, but I’m still wondering if the following is accounted for:

-Rizzo’s win over Barnett
-Barnett’s win over Couture

Wouldn’t both those be listed at the end as splits/loops?

by smoogy on Jul 28, 2008 11:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Both took place over 3 years ago and aren’t accounted for.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 28, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...

...who is this “Martins” ? Either I’m being rather air-headed or understandably ignorant, because I couldn’t find any fighter with that name being linked to any of the fighters on this chart.

by KneeToTheFace on Jul 28, 2008 11:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

:) He went by another name on the old graph.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 28, 2008 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

...I guess I was just being air-headed. I knew it was familiar. :P

by KneeToTheFace on Jul 28, 2008 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I love Fightlines

(reprinted from old thread)

I love Fightlines and I think they are an excellent tool for ranking, although I realize Mike Fagan explicitly dissociates himself from the notion. I really like the 3-year cut-off rule. In order to translate Fightlines into rankings (perhaps against the creator’s intention) I propose ways to "break the loop" in cases of a 1-1 record against an opponent or a case of A>B>C>A:

1. more recent fights are privileged over earlier fights
2. relative decisiveness of victories
3. respective records against mutual oponnents

What do you guys think of these factors as determinants to "break the loop"?

by klown on Jul 29, 2008 12:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’ve never understood phrases like:

The worry, of course, is that a Barnett loss would really mess up his claim to a title shot.

Huh? It’s as though there’s some subtext saying, “we know he’s not good enough to deserve a title shot, but it sure would be nice if he had one.” Is that what it’s supposed to mean?

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jul 29, 2008 3:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Frank Mir???

Nothing about Mir’s position in the graph in the article or the comments considering he’s being given a title shot?

Maybe that’s because it’s already been discussed to death but the reality is that Mir does not deserve a shot against a guy like Nogueira who is on the complete opposite end of the graph.

What a joke, I can’t wait to see Big Nog destroy him.

-Armen

by Armen on Jul 29, 2008 5:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I talked about it last month. Didn’t want to rehash it as nothing really changed for him. I definitely agree with you.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 29, 2008 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Mike: Love the fightlines, and glad that you keep posting them, but what really impresses me is that you keep doing it even though time after time, every entry is plagued by people who refuse to read the methodology. What’s the key to your patience?

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jul 29, 2008 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Probably booze

by Luke Thomas on Jul 29, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and lots of it

GET THE MMA TOOLBAR HERE

by mmastation on Jul 29, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the same way this site gets written, evidently.

HAYO! HA!

(Much love?)

Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones

by jemaleddin on Jul 29, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just understand that certain concepts aren’t for everyone. At least, people may not accept them right away. I’m heavily influenced by baseball sabremetrics, and you have to have a tremendous amount of patience to discuss that with anyone who doesn’t care for or know about it.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 29, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No kidding. The responses to FightLines are nowhere near as frustrating as the idiocy you hear from people trying to argue against sabermetrics or as the morons like to call it “Moneyball.”

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard Wade on Jul 29, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really don’t think it was all that bad. By the 3-Year Standings, he is tied with a handful of guys at 10th. The only guys clearly ahead of him that are available to the UFC are Velasquez, Vera, Gonzaga and Kongo. Three of them are coming off losses at HW and the other only has a couple professional fights.

Intentional Blog on Balls

by Richard Wade on Jul 29, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs