The $100 Experiment: EliteXC

by Carl P on Jul 24, 2008 12:41 AM EDT

EliteXC: Unfininished Business is coming up on Saturday, and Bodog just posted their lines for the fights, so here are my thoughts -- I don't see many attractive fights on this card from a gambling perspective. Here are plays I am considering:

Jake Shields vs. Nick Thompson, $1 on Nick Thompson @ +260. Jake Shields is generally considered one of the top welterweights out there, but I think Nick Thompson has a better chance to win than most people give him credit for. He has the grappling pedigree to fend off Shields's submissions, and he has better standup.

Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith, $2.50 on Robbie Lawler @ -240. In their first match up, I thought Lawler had the much better standup game. As neither fighter is likely to bring it to the ground, I feel pretty comfortable putting money down on Lawler.

These are really the only two fights I see any value in. Other big fights of the night are Diaz vs. Denny, Cavalcante vs. Galbraith, and Silva vs. Eilers. Thomas Denny is virtually unknown except for his DQ win against Malaipet. He doesn't have the experience to take on someone as well versed as Diaz, but given how inconsistent Diaz has been in the past, he isn't much of a value at -650. Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante is a beast and shouldn't have much trouble dispatching his competition, but again, at -500, its not much of a deal. Silva vs. Eilers is more of the same. Even though Silva recently had a lackluster showing against a fat Ricco Rodriguez, Eilers doesn't pose a significant threat to him. As usual, post your thoughts/criticisms of my bets and analyses!

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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Comments

Isn’t Lawler -240?

I think I’m gonna put a few dollars down on Wilson Reis.

by Tim Burke on Jul 24, 2008 1:52 AM EDT reply actions

Sorry, typo. Fixed it.

by Carl P on Jul 24, 2008 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions

A wise man.

by Brett Jones on Jul 24, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Wilson Reis is a smart play.

by Luke Thomas on Jul 24, 2008 8:26 AM EDT reply actions

probably not the place but...

how does the +100 /-100 lines work? I only know the basic 1.5/2.0 type odds which simply tell you how much you get per dollar wagered.

by Benicio on Jul 24, 2008 8:37 AM EDT reply actions

If you bet on a line of -300, you need to bet $300 to win $100. For +450, you bet $100 to win $450.

by Mike Fagan on Jul 24, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions

thanks for clearing that up.

by Benicio on Jul 24, 2008 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions

So you’re saying if I bet $100 on Heath Herring at +200, I would win $200!

by Day Man on Jul 24, 2008 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, you would lose $100, but yeah, you’ve got the concept down. ;)

by Mike Fagan on Jul 25, 2008 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

That’s funny right there.

by mattman73 on Jul 25, 2008 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I haven’t had time to research this event, but I think these two bets look good at a glance. Good luck!

by Mike Fagan on Jul 24, 2008 8:59 AM EDT reply actions

Baszler/Santos

You haven’t mentioned this fight in the post, but I like Cristiane Santos at +185 (Pinnacle, right now). Baszler has obviously looked spectacular on the ground in her last few victories, but I can’t help but think that, partially, this has been due to her opponents’ lack of ground skill. Santos comes from a good camp and looks like a beast in the tape I’ve seen of her (although, truth be told, Baszler is easily the best fighter she’s faced against). I do agree that Baszler is the favourite, but I think there’s value in Santos down to about +150 or so.

by tomh on Jul 24, 2008 3:52 PM EDT reply actions

Santos also

Has underrated wrestling.

by Luke Thomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I did something kinda like that. I put down 5$ on Nick Thompson at BetUS at +300, and a 3 way parlay between Lawler, Silva, and Diaz for 5$. I would put some down on Santos, but I have this gut feeling shes not going to win.

by virginiatech on Jul 25, 2008 12:15 AM EDT reply actions

Not for me

Sounds like just another over hype nite…i rather go to the race track

by Mr.Po on Jul 25, 2008 5:04 PM EDT reply actions

I got 5 on Lawler at -280, 5 on Shields at -300, and 20 on Reis at -160. Should have made these bets last week to get better odds, but…oh well. You can’t parlay MMA on bookmaker, or I would have done that as well.

by Tim Burke on Jul 26, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions