EliteXC: Unfininished Business is coming up on Saturday, and Bodog just posted their lines for the fights, so here are my thoughts -- I don't see many attractive fights on this card from a gambling perspective.  Here are plays I am considering:

Jake Shields vs. Nick Thompson, $1 on Nick Thompson @ +260.  Jake Shields is generally considered one of the top welterweights out there, but I think Nick Thompson has a better chance to win than most people give him credit for.  He has the grappling pedigree to fend off Shields's submissions, and he has better standup.

Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith, $2.50 on Robbie Lawler @ -240.  In their first match up, I thought Lawler had the much better standup game.  As neither fighter is likely to bring it to the ground, I feel pretty comfortable putting money down on Lawler.

These are really the only two fights I see any value in.  Other big fights of the night are Diaz vs. Denny, Cavalcante vs. Galbraith, and Silva vs. Eilers.  Thomas Denny is virtually unknown except for his DQ win against Malaipet.  He doesn't have the experience to take on someone as well versed as Diaz, but given how inconsistent Diaz has been in the past, he isn't much of a value at -650.  Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante is a beast and shouldn't have much trouble dispatching his competition, but again, at -500, its not much of a deal.  Silva vs. Eilers is more of the same.  Even though Silva recently had a lackluster showing against a fat Ricco Rodriguez, Eilers doesn't pose a significant threat to him.  As usual, post your thoughts/criticisms of my bets and analyses!