Justin McCully is a Decent Parlay Pick

by Michael Rome on Jul 2, 2008 1:13 AM EDT in News

One of the least talked about matches on this weekend's undercard is Justin McCully vs. Gabriel Gonzaga. Just a year or so ago, the MMA blogosphere was ready to crown Gonzaga the next Fedor, but ever since his disappointing loss to Fabricio Werdum in January, everyone is writing him off. He didn't just lose, he gave up in the face of pressure, and showed an (apparent) lack of heart that has shaken everyone's confidence in him.

Gonzaga is being given an easy rebound fight, but I don't think it is as much of a slam dunk as the odds suggest. He comes in as a -600 favorite, and I absolutely can't imagine laying down that kind of money in his favor for this fight. I expect this to be an exceedingly boring fight with lots of clinch work up against the cage. McCully has a sturdy chin, a black belt in BJJ, and trains in a solid camp. He won't be a complete walkover, and he probably will last past a round. If McCully can make this a clinching match against the fence, he may be able to sap Gonzaga's will.

I fully expect Gonzaga to take this, but I think the odds are way too long. McCully is a competent fighter that bested Antoni Hardonk through sheer grit, and the same kind of performance could earn him a decision win over Gonzaga. At +450, it may be worth adding him to a parlay of favorites for the payoff possibility.

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It's a great pick...

Gonzaga doesn’t seem to react well when things aren’t going his way. And he can be bullied a little bit more than you’d think a guy of his skill and size would be. So McCully is a really great pick if you’ve got a little bit you’re looking to put down somewhere. I’ve got McCully winning somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% of the time as I really think he can grind out a (boring) decision especially if he can force a hard pace in the first round.

At +450 that is about twice as high of a percentage as what the oddsmakers have him at (somewhere around 18%) so yeah a lot of value in my eyes.

I don’t like to mess around with parlays too much though. I find fights are unpredictable enough that trying the ol “bunch of favorites with a big dog tacked on” is riskier than just going with the bets you like. But if you’re a “big reward” kind of guy it can’t hurt.

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

"The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls and looking like hard work." -- Thomas Edison

by brentbrookhouse on Jul 2, 2008 1:34 AM EDT 0 recs

Unfortunately, I really get sucked into parlays. I won one once back at UFC 74 where I picked every fight on the card right, including some upsets, and won quite a bit, enough to fund my gambling for a while. Ever since then I’ve kinda been chasing the dream again.

I think this card has some serious payoff potential for upsets. A +450 multiplier in a parlay is big, especially if you’re pretty confident in other fights. Unfortunately, this is a VERY tough card to parlay. Outside of the main event and Stevenson/Tibau, there are not a lot of slam dunk fights with good odds. Still, I couldn’t resist a parlay of Jackson, Stevenson, Aurelio, Lytle, and McCully. I only threw down 20, and it pays off $2,461 if the upsets roll in. Sometimes I just can’t resist those pretty big numbers.

by Michael Rome on Jul 2, 2008 1:56 AM EDT 0 recs

McCully was caught in an Armbar by Antoni Hardonk. Antoni Hardonk. Within minutes.

A blue belt had the “black belt” in a submission and the only reason he didn’t tap was because Hardonk hasn’t learned jack from Rickson and then the round ended. Justin spends most of his day tokin’ with Rob Van Dam and arguing with Tito.

Gonzaga by doing what he did to Carmello Marerro at UFC 66.

by godzillad on Jul 2, 2008 3:10 AM EDT 0 recs

I understand all that, but let’s be fair, he took that fight on like zero notice and came in way heavier than he is gonna come in for this. He is coming off a full training camp too. I think Gonzaga will win, but the odds are too good to pass up, especially considering Gonzaga’s sad performance in January.

by Michael Rome on Jul 2, 2008 3:42 AM EDT 0 recs

Right...

saying there is value in a bet isn’t the same as saying “he is going to win”

Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

"The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls and looking like hard work." -- Thomas Edison

by brentbrookhouse on Jul 2, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up 0 recs