“Affliction: Banned” BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions

JULY 19, 2008

Bouts Scheduled to Air on Pay-Per-View:

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia

Luke Thomas: Sylvia understands Fedor needs to clinch in order for him to get taken down, but he also knows it’s easier to get cut off in the ring. Sprawling against leg attacks from Jeff Monson shooting light years away isn’t the same as keeping the explosive Russian out from under you. Both Vera and Nogueira proved Sylvia can be taken down from inside as well. Fedor gets this to the ground sooner or later. Fedor, by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Fedor should get the takedown from the clinch and it'll be quick from there. Emelianenko by sub in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: This is a hard fight to call.  Generally we know what we're going to get out of Sylvia but what do you get from Fedor in 2008 against a top 10 heavyweight?  I'll tell you one thing, I don't buy this idea that the fight goes clinch, takedown, sub early in round 1.  It took Fedor 2 minutes to sub Hong Man Choi and I think that Sylvia is a bit more of a challenge.  I'm going to follow my gut rather than my brain and take Sylvia by TKO (cut stoppage) Round 3.

Mike Rome: Tim's takedown defense from the clinch has been terrible in the past, I don't think Fedor will have any trouble getting him down and submitting him.  The only question here is how Fedor will look off roids against good competition.  I suspect he will have a great showing and finish Sylvia easily.  Fedor via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Tons of props to Sylvia for fighting the best out there and nothing would make me smile more than Sylvia KO'ing Fedor. But I'm picking Emelianenko by Hong Man Choi armbar. Long live WAMMA!

Mike Fagan: Sylvia hasn't finished much higher-level competition, so Emelianenko's biggest worry is a fight-ending cut. I expect Fedor to use his speed and explosiveness to smother Sylvia and eventually drag him to the ground. Once it's there, the fight is pretty elementary. Fedor Emelianenko by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: I wish I had a more daring pick here, but I think this one goes exactly as everyone's expecting. Fedor takes a round or two to wade through Tim's punches, probably gets cut in the process, and eventually uses the corner/ropes to trip the big man up and take him down. From there it's only a matter of if he wants an arm or leg to go with his WAMMA belt. Emelianenko via Submission, round 3.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell

Luke Thomas: Extremely difficult fight to forecast. Rothwell is underrated, but I’m also uncertain about how good he actually is. Arlovski has looked lack luster recently, but I suspect we might see a reinvigorated Belarussian on Saturday with Freddie Roach in his corner. Arlovksi by counterfighting.

Kid Nate: Rothwell will force the pace and threaten Arlovski with takedowns, that will be his undoing. Arlovski by KO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm not going to let go of "Vintage Andrei" and I'm going to take him here.  He'll lose the first round but in the second he'll find his range and timing and knock Rothwell out.  Arlovski by KO round 2.

Mike Rome: Arlovski hasn't looked good at all in a long time, and I'm sick of waiting for the old Arlovski to come back.  I don't even think much of Rothwell, but I think he can take this.  Arlovski seems too focused on boxing, and is working with a coach that admittedly is still learning how to incorporate it into MMA.  I don't think the new training will be that helpful here.  Rothwell via decision.

Nick Thomas: I want to pick Ben here and I think Ben will be the aggressor... but
Ben is coming in with 10 months of ring rust and I see Arlovski grinding
out a decision. Arlovski by decision.

Mike Fagan: Another IFL fighter taking the plunge and fighting much better competition. He didn't look great against Ricco and he's had a very long layoff, though. Arlovski is just too fast and too explosive. Andrei Arlovski by decision.

Chris Nelson: Arlovski will come out guns blazing, looking to showcase his boxing and start up a new highlight reel. Rothwell can eat a shot and will probably do so for a chance to establish some kind of ground game in the first. In the second, Andrei finds his range. Arlovski via TKO, round 2.

Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo

Luke Thomas: Pedro isn’t really the “The Rock” anymore even though he’s better than some are acknowledging. Barnett won’t walk through him, but he shouldn’t struggle either. Barnett, by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: I think Barnett is a much better fighter than Rizzo in 2008. Barnett by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Barnett is a legit top level heavyweight in 2008.  Rizzo is not.  Barnett by TKO round 2.

Mike Rome: Barnett's interview with Luke suggests to me he wants to stand.  This is a rematch of one of the greatest UFC fights ever, but I expect this one will be far more one-sided.  Barnett via KO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Rizzo has a punchers chance but Barnett will take this is the ground. Barnett by submission.

Mike Fagan: If Barnett tries to stand and trade with Rizzo, he's going to be in for a long night. However, I think his game is too well rounded to fall into that trap. Barnett by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Their first match was a classic; seven years later, it's much less  competitive. Barnett via TKO, round 1.

Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead

Luke Thomas: Another tough fight to call. I agree Whitehead is slightly underrated, but he hasn’t beaten anyone of note since leaving the UFC. Babalu can be reckless, but I don’t think Whitehead’s the guy to make him pay. Babalu by decision.

Kid Nate: Babalu by TKO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Whitehead is getting slept on pretty hardcore.  Babalu is a good fighter but I have never been as high on him as most.  Mike Whitehead by decision.

Mike Rome: I'm picking the upset here too.  Whitehead is on a decent streak, and I think he'll be able to grind out a decision.  This one could really go either way, I see Whitehead holding Babalu down for a long time.  Whitehead via decision.

Nick Thomas: Whitehead was horrible on TUF but he has been on a tear since the show. Upset #1 - Whitehead by TKO.

Mike Fagan: Guys like Whitehead are tough to gauge. He has a very good record, with 4 of his 5 losses coming to top competition. Unfortunately, his only win against quality opposition is a decision against a very young Ben Rothwell in 2002. I'm taking Babalu, but I expect Whitehead to take him the distance. Renato Sobral by decision.

Chris Nelson: Whitehead via Decision.

Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Nascimento

Luke Thomas: Lindland by vicious, vicious guillotine.

Kid Nate: Lindland by TKO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Lindland by decision.

Mike Rome: Lindland via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Lindland is greatest. I will never predict against him. Lindland by TKO.

Mike Fagan: Lindland by submission, round 1.

Chris Nelson: I'd love to pick the slept-on Negao, who has great jiu-jitsu, underrated power and decent combinations when he chooses to throw them. Unfortunately he's prone to takedowns and the larger Lindland should have him on the ground for the bulk of this fight. Lindland via Decision.

Edwin Dewees vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Luke Thomas: I would love to have been in on the conversation when Pavia told Dewees about this fight. “Edwin, take this fight with a guy who is bigger than you and better than in every respect of the game. It’ll be great.” Nogueira by submission.

Kid Nate: Little Nog by submission in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Nogueira by submission in round 1.

Mike Rome: Poor Edwin.  Nogueira via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Dewees is way to small for this fight. Nogueira by whatever.

Mike Fagan: Dewees is a middleweight. 'Nuff said. Nogueira by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Nog via TKO, round 1.

J.J. Ambrose vs. Mike Pyle

Luke Thomas: Ambrose is COMLETELY UNDERRATED. He is a very good wrestler and an excellent boxer. Pyle absolutely has his hands full and I hope he didn’t take him lightly. The only area where I give Pyle the edge is in the submission department and that might be enough. Pyle by decision.

Kid Nate: Pyle by bad career management in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: Pyle by decision.

Mike Rome: Mike Pyle by submission, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Both ground fighters, pretty much a toss up. Going to give the slight edge to Pyle by being the stronger fighter.

Mike Fagan: Mike Pyle by submission, round 1.

Chris Nelson: Pyle via Submission, round 1.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Fights to air on Fox Sports Net):

Paul Buentello vs. Aleksander Emelianenko

Luke Thomas: I have nothing but respect for Buentello, but his bread and butter is Aleks’…and Aleks is better at it. Aleks, by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: This could be a fun slugfest. Aleksander by KO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm not a big Aleks fan but there is no denying that he is better than Buentello in every facet of the game.  Aleksander by TKO round 2.

Mike Rome: Buentello is only good at one thing and Aleks is better at it.  Aleks via TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Fight of the night here. Big fan of Buentello but I'm picking the rededicated Emelianenko by TKO.

Mike Fagan: Buentello was overwhelmed by Alistair Overeem, and I don't see how this one is any different. Better pray Emelianenko has visa issues. Aleksander Emelianenko by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Emelianenko via KO, round 1.

Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin

Luke Thomas: Belfort is a total flake, but he does actually have some skills. He’ll never beat top flight competition, but I don’t think Martin is that guy (even with his heavy hands and terrible gas tank). Belfort by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: I'm predicting a snoozefest here. Martin by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Martin has been working his boxing technique a lot and is starting to look pretty crisp.  Vitor...well...who knows what Vitor has on any given night.  I guess I'll take Martin by decision.

Mike Rome: I think this is going to be a really boring fight.  I'm going to pick Vitor by decision.

Nick Thomas: Belfort is the favorite here but I'm going with the hungrier Martin. Upset #2 - Martin by TKO.

Mike Fagan: Vitor Belfort by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Martin via Decision.

Mark Hominick vs. Savant Young

Luke Thomas: Savant’s wrestling is somewhat overrated. I think he might have more takedown opportunities in the ring, but even then I think he’ll get popped one too many times over the course of three rounds. Hominick by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Savant by TKO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: Young by TKO round 2.

Mike Rome: Savant Young by decision.

Nick Thomas: Always been a fan of Hominick and his kickboxing. Hominick by TKO.

Mike Fagan: Savant Young by decision.

Chris Nelson: Young by Decision.