Gambling Spotlight: "Affliction: Banned"

With a large fight weekend coming up, here's an early look at the Affliction's inaugural show this Saturday.  All lines are the best available from the 3 most reliable U.S. available books (5dimes, Bookmaker, and Bodog) and come courtesy of BestFightOdds.com.  On Friday, I will post my public plays, address any significant line movement, and may touch on Monday's Dream card.

In case you missed it, here's my write-up for the UFC's event, "Silva vs. Irvin."

Fedor Emelianenko (-370) vs. Tim Sylvia (+310)

Fedor Emelianenko holds a 27-1 (6 [T]KO/14 SUB) MMA record. Fighting for the Red Devil Sport Club, Emelianenko is the last man to wear the Pride Heavyweight Championship Belt and is also the winner of Pride's 2004 Heavyweight Grand Prix, RINGS 2002 Open Weight Tournament, and RINGS 2001 Heavyweight Tournament. His last three fights include submission victories over super heavyweight freakshow Hong Man Choi, middleweight Matt Lindland, and New Zealand kickboxer Mark Hunt. Widely regarded as the most dominant fighter in MMA's young history, Emelianenko has not lost a fight since the beginning of the millennium. Emelianenko is currently ranked as the number one heavyweight in the world according to Sherdog.com.

Tim “The Maine-iac” Sylvia sports a 24-4 (16 [T]KO/2 SUB) MMA record. A member of Militech Fighting Systems, Sylvia is a former two-time UFC Heavyweight Champion. In his last three fights, Sylvia dropped fights to UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture and claimed victory over Brandon Vera by decision. Sylvia is currently ranked as the number four heavyweight in the world according to Sherdog.com.

Emelianenko is a fighter without equal. With a rare combination of power, speed, and explosion, the Russian Combat Sambo champion has one known weakness – a tendency to be cut. With that in mind, Tim Sylvia's best chances of winning the fight rest on his ability to open up the skin over the eyes of the Russian. It's hard to imagine any other scenario leading to Sylvia's hand being raised as the winner. Emelianenko doesn't have to fear being taken down which allows the Russian to concentrate solely on Sylvia's strikes. With Sylvia constantly having to worry about Emelianenko taking him down, it's unlikely he will be able to land a shot of significance to down Pride champion.

I expect Emelianenko will be able to use quickness and head movement to get inside a la prime Mike Tyson.  It may take him multiple attempts, but I believe he will be able to take Sylvia down from the clinch.  From there, the results are academic.  No matter how adept Sylvia becomes at working off his back, he has a gigantic natural disadvantage given his long limbs.  Fedor will grab one of those extremities for the submission.

Betting on Fedor at -375, we have a 78.9% break-even rate. I think the true line is somewhere just north of 80% and would recommend a unit or two at the current line. Stay away from the current Bodog line of -400.

The rest of the card after the break.

Josh Barnett (-350) vs. Pedro Rizzo (+300)

Josh “The Babyfaced Assassin” Barnett possesses a 22-5 (4 [T]KO/14 SUB) MMA record. Josh is a former UFC Heavyweight Champion and is the current Pancrase Open-weight Champion and currently fights out of Erik Paulson's CSW camp. He holds victories over Jeff Monson and Hidehiko Yoshida in the new Sengoku promotion, and carries a loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his last fight for Pride. Barnett is currently ranked as the number seven heavyweight in the world according to Sherdog.com.

Pedro “The Rock” Rizzo has a 16-7 (9 [T]KO/4 SUB) MMA record. A product of Ruas Vale Tudo, he comes into this fight as the current Art of War Heavyweight Champion. Over his last three fights, Rizzo holds victories over Jeff Monson and Justin Eilers and one loss to Roman Zentsov.

These two met over 7 years ago in a fight where Rizzo posterized Barnett in one of the most memorable knockouts in MMA history. Since then, Barnett has ascended as a perennial top 10 heavyweight while Rizzo has been inconsistent with losses to Gan McGee, Sergei Kharitonov, and the aforementioned Zentsov.

Both bring solid all-around games with catch wrestling and Muay Thai as Barnett and Rizzo's backgrounds respectively. This fight will hinge on two things: one, Barnett's, who likes to put on a show, stubbornness to beat Rizzo at his own game and two, Rizzo's poor defense standing. With the latter, Kharitonov dominated Rizzo standing and even Jeff Monson landed quality shots in their fight. Barnett himself was able to land effectively in their first fight. Still, Barnett is best served to fight to his strength and take this fight to the ground. He has a tendency to want to beat guys at their own game, and I think that will be a huge mistake against the still-dangerous Rizzo.

The current line looks pretty efficient. If there is movement towards Barnett, I would grab Rizzo at anything above +375.

Matt Lindland (-420) vs. Fabio Negao (+350)

Matt Lindland owns a 20-5 (6 [T]KO/8 SUB) MMA record. A founding member of Team Quest, Lindland has a loss to Fedor Emelianenko, and wins over Carlos Newton and Jeremy Horn in his last 3 fights.

Fabio Negao has a 8-3 (4 [T]KO/2 SUB) MMA record. He fights out of Team Oyama/Lotus Club, and lost his last fight to the UFC's Rousimar Palhares.

There is not a lot of tape out on Negao, but from what I have seen, he reminds me of a poor man's Jacare. He is a BJJ black belt and appears to have a solid Muay Thai game.  I recently saw a video from the Affliction press conference where Lindland looks significantly bigger than Negao.

Without much video on Negao and a heavy line favoring Lindland, I recommend no play here.

Aleksander Emelianenko (-320) vs. Paul Buentello (+275)

Aleksander Emelainenko has a 13-3 (7 [T]KO/4 SUB) MMA record. He trains with the Red Devil Sport Club and is the brother of Fedor Emelianenko. His last three fights have all been stoppage victories over Silvao Santos, Dan Bobish, and Jessie Gibson.

Paul “The Headhunter” Buentello holds a 25-10 (16 [T]KO/9 SUB) MMA record. Training out of the American Kickboxing Academy, he is 1-2 in his last three fights, with wins over Ruben Villareal and Carter Williams and a loss to Alistair Overeem.

Of the lines available this weekend, this one looks to have the most value. Every advantage goes Emelianenko's way: he's younger (in his prime even), he's bigger, he's faster, his standup is more technical, he has a better ground game, and he trains with one of the best fighters on the planet. Buentello put up next to no fight against Alistair Overeem, and I think the same thing happens here. “The Headhunter” rests his chances on a one punch KO and I don't like his odds.

The current line has Emelianenko winning this about 76% of the time. Like his brother, the true line looks to be over 80%. Get a few units on Aleksander at -320, and only a couple if you are stuck with the Bodog line.

Renato Sobral (-250) vs. Mike Whitehead (+215)

Renato “Babalu” Sobral possesses a 29-7 (2 [T]KO/16 SUB) MMA record. Fighting out of the Gracie Barra Combat Team and Erik Paulson's CSW, he is the winner of the 2003 IFC Light Heavyweight Tournament.

Mike Whitehead owns a 21-5 (5 [T]KO/11 SUB) MMA record. In his last three fights, he holds victories over Zak Jensen, Daniel Sarafian, and Vernon White.

I really want to say there's value on Mike Whitehead, but given the information I have, it wouldn't be prudent. Whitehead has a solid all around game, but the only tape available are fights with Keith Jardine and Mark Kerr, neither of which has much relevance to this fight. Also, looking over his fight card, he is another example of a fighter who has lost fights to top competition, but hasn't beat top competition.

I do believe “Babalu” deserves to be the favorite here, but there's two concerns I have in this fight. First, I believe Whitehead will be bigger, and I'm uncertain how that will affect Sobral's ability to get the fight to the floor. The other concern goes back to the fight he lost to Jason Lambert. Sobral controlled the fight through the first four-and-a-half minutes before being rocked standing. After that, his striking, which is wild to begin with, broke down and allowed Lambert to land a powerful, clean right hook.

Stay away from this fight if your information is similar to mine. If you know where to find more tape on Whitehead (preferably his most recent fights), let me know.