My $100 experiment
by Carl P on Jul 11, 2008 10:25 PM EDT
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PrintInspired by Brent Brookhouse's post several months back, I've decided to open up an account on Bodog and lay down some bets. I'm a complete novice to this game, so it should be interesting to see how things turn out. Since its my first time, I'm starting out slow. I'll try and continue updating with all my open bets and my winnings. Here goes nothing:
UFN: Silva vs. Irvin
$2 on James Irvin @ +350: Silva's moving up to 205 for this fight, and as almost a 4:1 underdog, I don't see much harm in throwing down a couple bucks on Irvin, who has a puncher's chance of knocking out Silva.
$3 on Hermes Franca @ +135: I'm a bit surprised Franca is the underdog here. Both are coming off losses to dominant wrestlers, but I think if Edgar catches a few knees like the ones Franca delivered to Sherk, he'll be out like a light.
Affliction: Banned
$2 on Tim Sylvia @ +300: Fedor hasn't fought anyone noteworthy for several years, and just because he fought Hong Man-Choi doesn't mean he'll have any idea how to beat Sylvia's massive reach advantage. At +300, I think Sylvia is a deal... but Fedor's still Fedor, so I only put down 2.
DREAM 5
$2 on Caol Uno @ +275: I'm still not convinced that Aoki is a great MMA fighter, and Uno's a crafty veteran. Aoki's standup sucks and I think Caol will be able to keep it on the feet.
$2 on Eddie Alvarez @ +115: A fairly even fight, but I give the edge to Alvarez because of his size.
$2 IF bet on Eddie Alvarez to win DREAM tournament @ 7/2: If Alvarez gets by Kawajiri, I think he'll beat either Aoki or Uno, so this seemed like the natural choice.
I'd love to hear all your thoughts and comments. Wish me luck!
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I figured this was a gambling post based on the title, and the first thing I thought was, “Wonder how much he’s betting per fight.” I was quite relieved to see that you have $2-3 bets down. A+ bankroll management. It’s such a basic fundamental skill that it’s sooo important to learn off the bat. Hats off to you.
I don’t like the Irvin bet, especially since you can get him at a better price elsewhere (though I realize you’re only on Bodog).
Fedor was able to get through Semmy Schilt’s reach advice, and Semmy’s a better striker than Tim, though Tim has better takedown defense. Not real thrilled about this bet.
I do like the Franca bet a lot, and I also have Eddie at +115 and to win the tourny (at 19/5 – glad to see the line moved that way). Alvarez has been undervalued this entire tournament, and I think he’s solid value at +115.
Good luck. I think the Sylvia and Irvin could pay off. Remember Silva had trouble with Travis Luetter who came in overweight and his size seemed to really help him control Silva (at first anyways). With going up to 205 Silva may be overreaching.
I have no doubt Sylvia can out score Fedor for a win in a snooze fest. Will it happen though that’s the question
Please keep us updated, this is an experiment I’d like to follow. And, I’d second the kudos on your bankroll management. I’m a heavy poker player and it’s seriously one of the most important skills required to be successful at any kind of gambling. You have to allow time for the ‘long run’ to kick in. You’re doing that, and I think it’s great. Plus, you can get the entertainment value out of betting on the fights without risking any damaging amount of money, since you’re trying very hard to increase your roll. I did a similar project with poker, and it was a blast. I started with $100 and had to play at $.01/.02 for awhile, then move up. Most of my friends didn’t think playing for such small stakes was fun, but it was; because I really cared about winning in the context of my bankroll game. Keep us updated, and as soon as I get stateside I’m going to try this as well.
i wish mr brookfield would give us an update on his how his picks and bankroll have done since his last update….... it was definitely an interesting concept…
Second that. Brookfield’s gambling exploits are fun to follow.
by Richard Wade on Jul 13, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I did an experiment where I put (or pretended to put) $20 on every underdog on UFC and Pride cards for over 6 months. I started with UFC 66 at the end of 2006 and kept a spreadsheet. I tracked it for 12 events, ending with Pride 34. Also included UFN’s…
Was up $800 when I stopped tracking it…
The biggest money makers were:
Sokoudjou over Lil Nog & Arona
Edgar over Griffin
Serra over GSP
Alexander over Jardine
Jardine over Griffin
O’Brien over Herring
Lambert over Babalu
Hendo over Wandy
Couture over Sylvia
McCully over Hardonk
Only on ONE card did EVERY favorite win (UFC 72).
Lost money on 5 of 12 cards but it usually wasn’t much because at least a couple underdogs would win on most cards, which would get it close to even for the event (depending on the odds of the underdogs that won).
UFC 85 would’ve been a big money maker…
Thiago Alves (+145)
Thales Leites (+155)
Fabricio Werdum (+130)
Matt Wiman (+300)
Luiz Cane (+135)
Bet the dog
I think these are good bets, especially Silvia over Fedor (and I agree that Irvin has a puncher’s chance). Thanks too to hankd for confirmed what I long suspected: In the MMA game, the underdog is a better bet than in football and many other supports. The reason is that there’s so many ways to win suddenly, and the sport is relatively new with talent levels still finding their level.
It’s damn near impossible to never lose money on an event.
by Richard Wade on Jul 16, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
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