BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions for “UFC 85: Bedlam”

Matt Hughes vs. Thiago Alves 

Luke Thomas: Matt Hughes isn’t Karo Parisyan. His takedown arsenal is significantly more varied with his freestyle background: single legs, double legs, ankle picks, high crotch lifts. Throw in a few takedowns from double underhooks and Alves will go to the mat. I think as long as this fight stays standing Alves is going to tax him, but between Hughes takedowns and good submissions and Alves inability to make weight/self-doubt/frustration, Hughes should win here. Hughes by decision.

Kid Nate: This is a bit of an old school matchup -- you've got a wrestler with decent submissions and so-so standup against a muy thai guy with a decent BJJ background but limited takedown defense. Basically if the fight stays standing its just a matter of time before Hughes gets KTFO'd. If Hughes gets the takedown he should be able to beat Alves down just like Fitch did. The question is, has Hughes' time passed? I'm gonna say no, Hughes by TKO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: I don't think Hughes is "done" and I think Alves is a pretty great matchup for Hughes actually.  Takedowns and GnP is the order of the day.  Matt Hughes by surprisingly easy decision.

Michael Rome: This is a very interesting main event, even if there is not a ton of star power.  This is Thiago's big chance, but I don't think he's there yet.  I think Hughes is still better than most guys at 170 besides GSP, and I think he is going to take a decision win over Alves due to Alves' lack of takedown defense.  Matt Hughes via decision.

Nick Thomas: Matt Hughes might have got his come back fight a little sooner than expected. But I still think by being bigger and more experienced, Hughes will keep Alves on his back for the majority of the fight. Hughes by take down and TKO by crucifix.

Michael Bisping vs. Jason Day 

Luke Thomas: Sorry, not sold on Jason Day. Alan Belcher reminds me more of the new Joe Riggs than the next big thing. I’ve seen Day’s fights and I’m continually unimpressed. I don’t think he’s any sort of pushover, but I don’t think he’s got enough to beat Bisping. Bisping by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Day could be a bad matchup for Bisping. He's got decent takedowns, strong ground and pound and isn't bad on his feet. I've been seriously tempted to pick him over Bisping several times since the fight was announced....but that's enough day-dreaming. Bisping is a big middleweight, has really good standup and should be able to take out Dooms Day.  Bisping by KO in 2.

Brent Brookhouse: Day is a much more well rounded fighter than Charles McCarthy, and presents many more problems for Bisping than "Chainsaw" did.  However I love what I saw from Bisping in that fight.  He is now "big" for the division he is in and his striking was aggressive and most importantly it was smart.  The thing that I liked was that he used feints to move McCarthy to the spot he wanted him and then unloaded with combinations.  The new "mature striker" Michael Bisping can be a real force in the division.  Michael Bisping by TKO round 2.

Michael Rome: This fight is ripe for an upset, but I do not see it happening.  Jason Day looked great against Alan Belcher, and he has a lot of momentum, but I think Bisping will keep this standing and beat him up there.  Bisping via TKO, round 3.

Nick Thomas: I picked Day at UFC 83 and the Canuck pulled it off in spades. Day is solid in striking and grappling and I think he can overcome the stronger Bisping on the ground. Upset #1: Day by submission.

Marcus Davis vs. Mike Swick 

Luke Thomas: This is an extremely difficult fight to call, but I’m going to go with Davis. I just don’t think the explosive Mike Swick of old is around right now. He trains hard and is talented, but there’s no spark. By contrast, Davis is on a roll, getting technically better everyday and likely coming in with a great gameplan to overcome Swick’s explosive athleticism and reach. My guess is over time Davis has the power to hurt Swick on the feet. Watch out for the Swick-otine, though. Davis by decision.

Kid Nate: Another hard call -- a great sign for the card! I think Swick's got the reach and handspeed to have the advantage standing -- he's also more comfortable with his kicks. Davis might have more power, but I don't think he'll be able to nail Swick. On the ground, Swick's got the edge. Swick by submission in the first.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm not a big Swick fan, but he presents a lot of problems for Davis.  If Swick returns to his aggressive form this is his fight to lose, if he tries to play it overly safe like he did against Burkman I don't think Davis will let him off the hook.  I think Swick knows the kind of performance he needs here and he'll use his length effectively to take a tight decision.  Mike "Quick" Swick by decision.

Michael Rome: Marcus Davis is on a hell of a roll, but let's not kid ourselves, his big win streak is not against top level competition.  This is the first big test, and I think he's going to pass it.  The challenge for him will be getting inside of Swick's reach, but I think he will be able to do it, and I think one of his short power shots will end Swick's night.  Davis via KO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: This fight is still a pick-em at -115,-115 at Bodog, other sites are learning towards Swick... but I think Davis has been on fire lately. Upset #2: Davis by TKO. 

Nate Marquardt vs. Thales Leites 

Luke Thomas: Leites has great BJJ (from Nova Uniao) and is tough as nails. But Marquardt is an exceptional grappler with better athleticism and lots of toughness. If Kampmann can keep the fight standing and pick Leites apart, Marquardt should probably be able to do as well. Marquardt, by decision.

Kid Nate: Leites is exactly the kind of master grappler that Marquardt should be able to shut down and dominate -- ala Dean Lister. He's good enough on the ground to neutralize all but the very best BJJers and has the edge in takedowns and in standup. Leites is very good at BJJ but I still remember his loss to Martin Kampmann well. Marquardt by (you guessed it) decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Marquardt looks like a new (and better) fighter.  Leites' game is going to get shut down by Nate before getting stopped.  Nate Marquardt by TKO round 3.

Michael Rome: This is a real hard fight to call, Marquardt is not easy to submit though, and I think his power and ground prowess will earn him a decision win.  Marquardt via decision.

Nick Thomas: Marquardt's fight against Horn was impressive. While Leites on the other hand will be coming in with a years worth of ring rust. I think Marquardt is going to keep this standing... picking Marquardt by decision.

Fabricio Werdum vs. Brandon Vera 

Luke Thomas: Werdum is obviously far better on the ground, but as we know a) Vera's got a really underrated BJJ game (a game which should at least be defensively strong) and b) very good wrestling. Arlovski proved that if you can defend the takedown, Werdum's stand-up isn't enough to carry the day, particularly against a Thai boxing fighter like Vera. I don't think Vera will finish him, though, as Werdum is extremely durable. Vera by decision.

Kid Nate: Werdum nearly got KO'd by Gonzaga's leg kicks. Vera may not be quite as powerful, but he's faster and has better fundamentals standing plus the greco to keep it on the feet. Vera by KO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Werdum can't allow Vera to run circles around him.  He has a few inches on Brandon and he needs to use them to keep him at a distance until he is ready to engage.  I watch that Gonzaga fight though and I see all the problems that a quicker fighter could pose for Fabricio.  Really tough call for me but I'll take Vera by decision.

Michael Rome: These really are all close fights.  I think Vera takes this, I am yet to be too impressed with Werdum in the UFC, even his Gonzaga win seemed more like a function of Gonzaga gassing and quitting than anything else.  I think Vera rebounds big with a KO win.  Vera via KO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: My pick for Fight of the Night. I'm still trying to process Werdum TKO'ing Gabriel Gonzaga. I didn't see that one coming. Because of that, I see the bigger Werdum handling Vera like Sylvia did. Upset # 3: Werdum by TKO.

UNDERCARD

Jorge Rivera vs. Martin Kampmann 

Luke Thomas: Rivera is extremely game and Kampmann’s layoff makes me nervous. That being said, Rivera’s got chin problems and Kampmann is significantly more well-rounded. He’s also the better pure striker, which doesn’t leave Rivera with a great deal of offensive weapons. Kampmann, by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Good to see Kampmann coming back, but hard to get really excited about this fight. Kampmann's relatively high standing is purely a product of the 185lb division being notoriously thin. Rivera is a solid journeyman but no more. Could actually be an entertaining fight as Kampmann completely lacks the KO power to put Rivera away. Going to have to flip a coin and say Kampmann by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Kampmann tends to get hit a bit more than I'd like and Rivera is good at cutting people up if nothing else.  If there is one thing I don't like to see a guy face when coming back from a long layoff (15 months for Martin) it is someone who isn't going to give you a chance to find a rhythm and get into the swing of things.  I think Jorge engages early and opens a cut that causes a TKO stoppage.  Jorge Rivera by TKO round 2.

Michael Rome: Lost in the shuffle of things is the return of Martin Kampmann.  This is a guy that could be on the fast track to a title shot if he wins a few fights.  I don't think Rivera will be too much of a problem for him, beating Grove doesn't really mean much, and I expect a first round win for Kampmann.  Kampmann via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: I called the Kendall Grove upset at UFC 80... but can Rivera do it again? I think so. Going with Upset #4: Rivera by TKO.

Matt Wiman vs. Thiago Tavares 

Luke Thomas: Tavares dropped a close decision loss to Tyson Griffin and didn’t look that good against Michihiro Omigawa – a guy Wiman blasted. That being said, Tavares has gameness and superb technical skill on the ground. Beyond that, he’s aggressive and while not the wrestler Wiman is, is capable of really pressing Wiman into making some sort of a positional error. Tavares, by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Another tough call. Tavares is exceptionally good on the ground and looked great against Jason Black and in a narrow decision loss to Tyson Griffin but not so great in his last fight against Omigawa. Wiman is well rounded but not in Tavares' league on the ground. Wiman did utterly dominate their Omigawa where Tavares struggled, but I think that was a product of Tavares being desperate for a quick submission win and forgetting to do any pounding while on the ground. This is the big test for Tavares -- is he an elite fighter at 155 or not. Tavares by submission 3rd round.

Brent Brookhouse: Wiman is a tough guy and it will serve the UFC well to have him around for a while for undercard tests.  Tavares by submission round 1.

Michael Rome: Thiago Tavares needs an exciting fight after his stinker on Spike, and I don't think Wiman is really going to provide it.  Rather, I think Tavares will submit him quickly.  Tavares via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Tavares didn't look that impressive in his last win, so I'm sure he's going to change that this time around. I want to pick Wiman but I think Tavares is going to be too hungry in this fight. Tavares by decision.

Roan Carneiro vs. Kevin Burns 

Luke Thomas: Burns is going to sleep. Jucao by Anaconda choke.

Kid Nate: Carneiro submission in the first.

Brent Brookhouse: The only fight that feels like a "no doubter" to me on this entire card.  Carneiro by first round submission.

Michael Rome: Carneiro via submission, round 2.

Nick Thomas: UFC jitters losses this fight for Burns. Picking Carneiro by submission.

Luiz Cane vs. Jason Lambert 

Luke Thomas: This has been the hardest fight on the card for me to forecast. Cane’s southpaw power gives me serious concern for Lambert’s chances. But Lambert’s wrestling is also plenty to overpower and control Cane. I’ll give the polished ground and pound attacker here the nod, but I don’t do it with enormous confidence. Lambert, via TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Lambert should muscle Cane around even more than he did Gouveia without walking into the KO. Lambert by TKO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Lambert falls into such bad habits when striking and Cane can put people out.  Despite my initial feelings on the fight...I'm taking Cane by TKO in the second.

Michael Rome: It's always hard to pick against Lambert because of his strength and wrestling ability, and I certainly can't do it against Luiz Cane.  Lambert via decision.

Nick Thomas: Lambert still get's my man crush pick of the night. Hopefully he learned from his last fight. Lambert by TKO.

Paul Taylor vs. Jess Liaudin 

Luke Thomas: Liaudin got starched by Davis in their last UFC outings, but Liaudin is actually a very good grappler. I realize Taylor defeated Liaudin their first time out, but international training on the part of Liaudin has improved his MMA game enormously. He’ll never be a UFC champ, but I think he’s got enough to get the win. Liaudin, by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Taylor by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Everyone was so high on Liaudin until he got clipped by Davis.  Taylor isn't going to be able to be able to bang with Jess and if he tries he may go to sleep.  Liaudin's power is underrated.  Jess is going to hurt him standing, follow Paul to the ground and sub him.  Liaudin by submission round 1.

Michael Rome: This should be a pretty damn exciting striking match.  From what I've seen Liaudin does a lot of fancy spin kicks and cool moves, but Taylor has the crisper and more effective strikes, and should finally get back on the winning track here.  Taylor via TKO, second round.

Nick Thomas: Striker vs. Jiu-Jitsu.... you'd think Liaudin would win. But they've fought before, so I'm picking the same outcome. Taylor by decision.

Antoni Hardonk vs. Eddie Sanchez 

Luke Thomas: This is mixed martial arts, so one never really knows how fights can go with certainty, but how many times does Hardonk have to lose in the same way before we realize he’s not prepared for MMA at this level? I don’t think Eddie Sanchez is anything to write home about (and looked terrible at the weigh-ins), but Hardonk was taken down and controlled by Justin McCully. Sanchez should be able to establish takedown control and top control to ride out a decision. Sanchez by decision.

Kid Nate: One of these guys is leaving the UFC. It comes down to whether or not Sanchez can get the fight on the ground or if Hardonk gets a standing KO first. Gonna flip a coin here and pick Hardonk by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Would it be awful of me to hope for a bad fight so I don't have to see these two fight in the UFC again?  I don't dig watching either guy fight.  Hardonk by decision.

Michael Rome: I think Hardonk will be able to finish it and avoid being taken down.  Hardonk via TKO, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Gotta go with the bigger Hardonk here. Hardonk by TKO.